Author: Aidan Joly

By Aidan Joly

Selection Sunday is now less than four weeks away.

What does the bracket look like? This is now my second bubble watch after doing a first one a few weeks ago (that one and the explanation of the three categories can be found by clicking here).

Since then, I have locked eight more teams into the tournament to bring that number up to 21, “should be in” has decreased from 21 to 15 – mainly due to teams locking themselves in, and “work to do” decreases from 28 to 24.

Let’s get into it.

ACC

Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson

Should be in: Virginia

Work to do: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh

Clemson has now locked itself into the field, thanks to wins against Miami and Syracuse. The Tigers don’t have the best record in the league at 7-7, but have several quality wins and did well in the non-conference portion of the slate to lock themselves in at this point in the year.

Despite a blowout loss to Virginia Tech, Virginia moves up to the “should be in” category, now sitting at 20 wins on the season and 11-5 in league play.

We welcome Pittsburgh to the bubble. The Panthers did lose to Wake Forest on Tuesday night as the Demon Deacons help themselves out, but have won seven of nine games, including five in a row from Jan. 31 until Feb. 17. Blake Hinson’s impressive 41 point performance was one of the best all season from any player.

Virginia Tech and Miami fall off the bubble. Virginia Tech took a bad loss to Notre Dame while not picking up what would have been a crucial win against North Carolina. Meanwhile, Miami falls off amidst a four-game losing streak, most recently losing to Boston College on Saturday.

Big 12

Locks: Houston, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State

Should be in: BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma

Work to do: Texas, Kansas State, Cincinnati

Iowa State has picked up three wins since we last discussed the bubble, promoting them to lock status. I almost locked in BYU, especially so after a huge win against Baylor but I’m not quite there, although it can be argued. One or two more wins should do it.

The rest of the “should be in” remains the same, even though Texas Tech helped themselves tremendously with a win over Kansas on Feb. 12. Similar to BYU, one or two more wins and will be all set.

It took a lot out of me to keep Kansas State on the bubble. The Wildcats have fallen to 15-11 overall and 5-8 in league play amidst a slide that has seen them lose seven out of eight games, but a win over Kansas during that stretch and a win against Baylor on Jan. 16 are tough to ignore.

Big East

Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton

Should be in: none

Work to do: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Butler, Providence

Creighton has now locked itself in. It was already pretty close to being locked in, but then beat UConn on Tuesday night, further cementing itself into the field.

We saw some bubble-on-bubble crime with Seton Hall taking down St. John’s on Saturday. The Johnnies are just 2-9 in Q1 games and have dropped to 14-12 overall and 6-9 in Big East play. It’s almost curtains for Rick Pitino’s bunch. Butler took a not good loss to Villanova on Saturday, hurting its chances after it was looking pretty good for a little bit there. Providence is holding on as well.

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois

Should be in: Northwestern, Michigan State

Work to do: Nebraska

Wisconsin is still locked into the field, but the Badgers are trending in the wrong direction and have lost five of the last seven games, including a loss to lowly Michigan, as well as Iowa.

Michigan State moves up to the “should be in” line after a big win against Illinois and following it up with back-to-back road wins against Penn State and the aforementioned Michigan. It did lose to Iowa on Tuesday night, though.

I almost dropped Northwestern to the “work to do” line, but it still should be fine despite a recent loss to Rutgers. Meanwhile, Minnesota falls off the bubble after failing to pick up what would have been a massive win against Purdue – the Golden Gophers hung around much of the afternoon though.

Pac 12

Locks: Arizona

Should be in: Washington State

Work to do: Utah, Colorado, Oregon

Washington State continues to climb amidst a seven-game winning streak, the Cougars haven’t lost a game since Jan. 20 and has won 10 of 11. Kyle Smith’s team also debuted in the top 25 this week. On Thursday, the program will play as a ranked team for the first time since March 2008. This is new heights for the program as it tries to reach the tournament for the first time since 2008.

Meanwhile, Utah drops the “work to do” line. Before a one-point win against UCLA on Sunday the Utes had lost three in a row and five of six. The UCLA win was maybe a season-saving win.

The Utes, who are 3-6 in Q1, 5-3 in Q2 and 3-1 in Q3, can’t afford another bad loss. It has two Q1 games and three Q3 games to go. It needs to win all of those Q3 games (Stanford on 2/29, Cal on 3/2 and Oregon State on 3/7).

SEC

Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky

Should be in: Florida, Mississippi State

Work to do: Texas A&M, Ole Miss

The biggest story in the SEC right now is Texas A&M. The Aggies, who looked good as gold a few weeks ago and especially so after a win against Tennessee on Feb. 10, have now lost three in a row. Two of those losses were to Vanderbilt and Arkansas, two of the bottom three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M now finds itself squarely on the bubble and can’t afford to let this slide last much longer.

Kentucky and South Carolina lock themselves in with wins, including the Wildcats taking down Auburn on Saturday on the road.

Florida moves up to the “should be in” line with three straight wins against Auburn, LSU and Georgia. Mississippi State also moves up by avoiding bad losses to Missouri and Arkansas in recent weeks.

Mountain West

Locks: San Diego State

Should be in: Utah State, New Mexico, Colorado State

Work to do: Boise State, Nevada

The dream of a six-bid Mountain West is still alive and well. San Diego State locked itself in after a pair of Q1 wins against Colorado State and New Mexico, the Aztecs are now 5-7 in Q1 games.

The top six continue to beat up on each other on a nightly basis. All of them are between 10-4 (Utah State) and 8-5 (Colorado State, New Mexico) in league play and all but one have won at least 20 games overall already. The one not there yet is Boise State, which has 18 and will surely get there soon.

That being said, the league should bring at least four, and I would lean on the side of both Boise State and Nevada getting in when it is all said and done.

AAC

Locks: none

Should be in: Florida Atlantic

Work to do: South Florida, UAB

Memphis is the big name excluded here, with the Tigers falling off of the bubble having lost six of the last nine and most recently got blasted 106-79 by SMU on Sunday. So now, Penny Hardaway’s group is out, one of the bigger collapses in the country this season. Will this cost Penny his job? Probably not, but it may put him on the hot seat next year.

Welcome to the bubble to South Florida. The Bulls are very all of the sudden on top of the AAC with a league record of 12-1 and 19-5 overall. It just picked up a signature win over FAU on Sunday, too. Amir Abdur-Rahim has done a heck of a job in year one in Tampa. I’m not sure what the chances look like for an at-large, but stranger things have happened.

There’s lots of potential bid stealers in this league too. South Florida is one of them, as is Charlotte, SMU, UAB and even North Texas. This will be a very fun league tournament.

The rest

Locks: Dayton

Should be in: St. Mary’s

Work to do: Drake, Indiana State, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, James Madison

Dayton locks itself into the field with a 21-4 record and 11-2 in Atlantic 10 play. St. Mary’s holds as a “should be in,” sitting at 13-0 in WCC play and 22-6 overall. Elsewhere in the WCC, Gonzaga helped its chances in a big way with a win on the road against Kentucky, the Zags’ first Q1 win of the season. It has two Q1 games left as well.

Drake has not lost a game since the last update, while Indiana State has really shot itself in the foot with back-to-back losses to Illinois State and Southern Illinois. It will need something of a miracle at this point to get an at-large.

Grand Canyon has not lost since the last update, so they stay. James Madison re-joins the conversation, sitting at 24-3 overall and 11-3 in Sun Belt play. It’s tough to see either getting an at-large bid, but they get shouts here.

By Aidan Joly

On Wednesday, the coaching carousel really got going with Ohio State firing Chris Holtmann amidst his seventh season in Columbus.

The move in and of itself is not too surprising, but it came as something as a surprise that it came midseason and not at season’s end. Ohio State is now the second high major program without a head coach, joining DePaul.

Holtmann is by no means a bad coach. In his first five seasons at Ohio State he led the Buckeyes to at least 20 wins and made the NCAA tournament four times (the Buckeyes would have gone in 2020 as well) and won a tournament game in three of those seasons.

However, the wheels have fallen off the past two seasons. Last season, Ohio State started the season 10-3, but finished 16-19. This year it was a similar story, starting 12-2 and now he is fired with the Buckeyes at 14-11. He leaves OSU with a final tally of 137-85 and 67-64 in Big Ten play.

Jake Diebler will serve as the interim coach for the last six regular season games and the Big Ten tournament.

To evaluate the job, there is a ton of resources and a ton of NIL money, some of the best in the country. It is likely a top-20 job in the country. It is not only the first big hire for incoming athletic director Ross Bjork, but it is one of his first moves, period. It’s unknown what he will look for, but it’s a fair assessment to say that this job can attract a sitting high major coach.

That being said, all of my seven candidates are sitting head coaches, six of them at the high major level. Here’s a list of candidates.

Greg McDermott, Creighton

McDermott has been a candidate at Ohio State in the past. He signed a contract extension in 2022 but there has been some murmurs within college basketball about what his future will look like. Georgetown coach Ed Cooley made an interesting comment after Creighton beat Georgetown on Tuesday night, encouraging Bluejays fans to appreciate McDermott. What does he know?

Creighton is likely to enter a rebuild after this season, could that give McDermott a chance to get a change of scenery? He is in his 14th season at Creighton and has won over 300 games.

Mick Cronin, UCLA

Another guy who might be looking for a change of scenery. Cronin was fantastic a couple hours south in Cincinnati, winning 296 games in 13 years.

His UCLA tenure started out pretty good but this year’s team has fallen off a cliff and currently sits at 13-11, leading to some speculation that Cronin will be looking for a parachute after this season. He has also made it clear that he is unhappy with the NIL support the program gets. Ohio State could be a solid fit for him, if he wants out.

Sean Miller, Xavier

Miller’s exit at Arizona in 2021 led to him being out of the sport for a season, but is in his second season at Xavier and is still considered to be one of the best coaches in the country. He has won over 70% of games throughout his career.

The Big East is a tough league and he’s managed to keep Xavier competitive this season. He’s had success everywhere he’s been and has an exciting brand of basketball that could translate very well in Columbus.

Dusty May, Florida Atlantic

A guy who came up through the Big Ten as a manager at Indiana in the 1990s, May figures to be one of the most sought-after names should he choose to leave FAU this spring. He led the Owls to the Final Four last year and signed a 10-year contract extension, but if Ohio State wants him they should be able to pay the buyout.

Although, he went to Indiana and the Hoosiers job could very well be open soon, so he may want that job and Indiana might make sure he lands in Bloomington.

Lamont Paris, South Carolina

After turning Chattanooga into a winner, Paris landed the South Carolina job in 2022. After a rough debut season that saw the Gamecocks go 11-21, he has South Carolina in contention to win the SEC this season, currently sitting at 21-4.

Paris has become a proven winner and has shown an ability to both recruit freshmen well as well as use the transfer portal to his advantage. He is familiar with the state as a former assistant at Akron (2005-2010) as well as the Big Ten as a former Wisconsin assistant (2010-2017) before landing the top gig at Chattanooga.

Nate Oats, Alabama

Oats was a hot name for his work at Buffalo before landing the Alabama job. He’s done more of the same in Tuscaloosa, winning nearly 70% of his games and has Alabama in contention to win the SEC in what would be its third SEC title in five years.

Oats plays a modern brand of high-paced basketball that values threes, a style that would surely excite in the Big Ten.

One drawback: he signed a big contract extension one year ago that lasts through the 2028-29 season. He is one of the highest paid coaches in the sport and his buyout is believed to be well north of $10 million, according to CBS Sports, which could be an issue.

Buzz Williams, Texas A&M

Bjork came to Ohio State from Texas A&M, where he was the athletic director there. It makes a lot of sense as to why Ohio State would in turn take a look at Williams.

Williams has had success at Texas A&M and made the NCAA tournament three times in five years at Virginia Tech, including a run to the Sweet 16 in 2019. He’s also won SEC coach of the year twice at Texas A&M (2020, 2023).

Prediction: Ohio State should start the coaching search with a big offer to either McDermott or May and hope one of them takes it. Easy in, easy out.

By Aidan Joly

The NCAA tournament bracket is starting to take shape as teams have all but locked themselves into the tournament, others are not quite there yet but look good to do so, and more that have work to do in the next month if they want their names called on Selection Sunday.

As of Friday afternoon, I have 13 teams that are locked into the tournament, 21 more that should be in, and 28 more that have some work to do, some of which won’t make it. There’s only 36 at-large bids available!

“Locks” are teams I feel like will for sure make the tournament, barring extreme circumstances. “Should be in” are teams that if the season ended today they would be in; they have a chance to get into the lock territory in the next few weeks but could drop into the “work to do” category.

That third category is a much broader spectrum. It encompasses some teams that are in the No. 8 and 9 seed line, all the way down to teams that are right now on the outside looking in, but can get in with some quality wins and some help from other teams.

With still over a month until Selection Sunday, it’s hardly an exact science.

Let’s get into it. Formatting this by going conference-by-conference.

ACC

Locks: North Carolina, Duke

Should be in: Clemson

Work to do: Virginia, Miami, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

North Carolina and Duke are the only locks here with the body of work speaking for itself. Clemson is almost there thanks to some very good non-conference results, a few more wins and the Tigers will find their way into the lock territory.

The ACC is still looking for a fourth team to emerge. The best candidate for that is Virginia, which is currently 9-3 in league play and 18-5 overall and has not lost a game since Jan. 13. An argument can be made for moving the Hoos up a category, but I’m keeping them here for now. Wake Forest is the next-closest to moving up to the “should be in” category.

Miami and Virginia Tech both have interesting cases, especially so in the case of Virginia Tech. The Hokies have three Quad 1 wins, but have a losing record (1-2) in Quad 2 games. It is No. 54 in the NET and No. 58 in KenPom.

The Hokies are a microcosm of the ACC. They have avoided bad losses but don’t have a really quality win. Only two Quad 1 games remain, the biggest being at North Carolina on Feb. 17. That is a must-win for the Hokies if they want to get in.

Syracuse and Florida State were both once on the bubble, but losses to Boston College and Louisville respectively eliminated them from contention.

Big 12

Locks: Houston, Kansas, Baylor

Should be in: Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma

Work to do: Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see 10+ teams from this league get in. Kansas and Baylor recently locked themselves in after the Jayhawks beat Houston and Baylor beat Iowa State.

Speaking of Iowa State, the Cyclones are on the verge of locking themselves in and would have likely done so if a last-second three that went in was released half of a second earlier. BYU, Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma all look good.

Kansas State almost lost its bubble status, but hung on with a win against Kansas on Monday night. Texas has had a topsy-turvy season and must avoid a loss to West Virginia on Saturday to stay on the bubble.

One team to discuss is Cincinnati, which has quietly played itself onto the bubble, and especially so after a win against Texas Tech last Saturday, its second Quad 1 win of the season. It has a couple more big opportunities coming up against Houston on Saturday and Iowa State on Tuesday. Both of those are Quad 1 games, two of six that the Bearcats have the rest of the way.

UCF was on the edge of the bubble a few weeks ago, but a couple recent losses have done this group in. But, it was a great effort from the Knights, who were not expected to be anywhere close to competitive this year.

Big East

Locks: UConn, Marquette

Should be in: Creighton

Work to do: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Butler, Providence

Marquette recently locked itself in to the tournament in the midst of a six-game winning streak; the Golden Eagles have not lost since Jan. 10. The winning streak has included two wins over Villanova along with wins over St. John’s and Seton Hall.

Creighton is almost there, but back-to-back losses to Butler and Providence have delayed it for now.

Speaking of Butler and Providence, both of those wins for those two squads were huge for their respective tournament chances. Butler has won four of its past five, with that loss coming to UConn. It owns wins against both Marquette and Creighton. You know who else has wins against Marquette and Creighton? Providence. Those two are the only teams in the league that have beaten both teams.

The Friars were really shaky for a while and lost four in a row from Jan. 3 to Jan. 13, but have won four of six since then.

St. John’s still does not have a signature win, but has a chance to do so on Saturday at Marquette.

Villanova falls off the bubble after a bad loss to Xavier on Wednesday.

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin

Should be in: Illinois, Northwestern

Work to do: Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota

To be fair, Wisconsin has lost three in a row but it stays on the “lock” line. It went to overtime with Nebraska and played Purdue tough. It’s still very tough to see a scenario where the Badgers miss the tournament.

Illinois is almost a lock, but still needs to win a game or two in the next two or so weeks.

Northwestern’s case is really interesting. It has wins over both Purdue and Illinois, but also has a loss to Minnesota, which, to be fair, I have right on the edge of the bubble; the Golden Gophers still have something of a chance to get in. It is No. 55 in the NET and No. 47 in KenPom, but has those two really quality wins. An argument can be made to put the Wildcats on the bubble, but barring a big collapse they should be in.

Michigan State is 6-6 in Big Ten play and 14-9 overall, but the Spartans are No. 24 in NET and No. 17 in KenPom. Remember, this team started 4-5 and has gone 10-4 since.

Nebraska has wins against Purdue and Wisconsin, but has also lost to Rutgers and Maryland. I still lead putting the Cornhuskers in, but there is a scenario where they miss.

Pac 12

Locks: Arizona

Should be in: Utah

Work to do: Washington State, Colorado, Oregon

The Pac 12 isn’t a one-bid league… right?

Arizona is locked in to the field and Utah is the most likely option as a second team to make it in. The Utes picked up three Quad 1 wins in non-conference play (Wake Forest, St. Mary’s, BYU), but is 0-4 in Quad 1 games in league play. It took Arizona to double overtime on Thursday night, which would have been huge. That was its last chance this season against the Wildcats, though.

It will have to stack wins the rest of the way in order to ensure its spot.

Washington State has a win over Arizona which definitely helps its chances. It ranks No. 41 in NET and No. 42 in KenPom, putting it squarely on the bubble. Meanwhile, Colorado can help its chances by beating Arizona on Saturday night. Oregon plays the Wildcats on Mar. 2.

SEC

Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn

Should be in: Kentucky, South Carolina

Work to do: Ole Miss, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State

Auburn became the third team to lock itself in to the tournament after an impressive win against Alabama on Wednesday. The Crimson Tide were already locked in after a four-game winning streak, that included a separate win against Auburn. So the rivals split their two matchups on the season.

Kentucky and South Carolina are both pretty close to being locked in and just need a couple more wins in order to do so.

Two teams in the “work to do” line have fascinating resumes. The first one is Ole Miss. The Rebels started the season 13-0 but all but one of those were Quad 3 or Quad 4 wins. A Quad 1 win against UCF was the outlier there. It has definitely avoided the bad losses, but its best win was a road win against Texas A&M. Ole Miss is No. 60 in both NET and KenPom.

The second might be even more interesting: the aforementioned Texas A&M. The Aggies have four Quad 1 wins, including a neutral site win against Iowa State in November. However, it is 2-2 in Quad 3 games, one of which was a 15-point home loss to LSU. It still has to play Tennessee twice, Alabama and South Carolina, so opportunities for huge wins are there. It also closes out the regular season against Mississippi State at home and at Ole Miss. Those two games will probably have huge implications for both the SEC tournament and the Aggies’ at-large chances.

The Aggies are No. 46 in NET and No. 43 in KenPom.

Mountain West

Locks: none

Should be in: San Diego State, Utah State, New Mexico, Colorado State

Work to do: Boise State, Nevada

It’s tough to gauge this conference. It’s easily the most underappreciated league in the country and it could easily send five teams to the tournament, and maybe six.

Quad 1 wins are aplenty in this league. San Diego State has three of them, Utah State has two, New Mexico has two and Colorado State has three.

However, Boise State remains on the bubble despite having a league-leading five of them. Nevada has four. This is because the four in the “should be in” category have better metrics. New Mexico is No. 19 in KenPom and No. 18 in NET, San Diego State is No. 20 in KenPom and No. 21 in NET, Colorado State is No. 32 in KenPom and No. 27 in NET, while Utah State is No. 44 in KenPom and No. 30 in NET.

For comparison, Boise State is No. 51 in KenPom and No. 40 in NET, while Nevada is No. 48 in both KenPom and NET.

This league is in flux. Anything can happen here. In my mind, all six should get in, but that feels tough to get all of them in. All of them have good resumes.

AAC

Locks: none

Should be in: Florida Atlantic

Work to do: Memphis, UAB

UAB played itself onto the edge of the bubble with a win against FAU on Thursday night.

A case can definitely be made to move FAU down to the “work to do” category, but I’m not ready to do that just yet. Not a lot of teams with losses to UAB, Charlotte, FGCU and Bryant would be even on the bubble, but that’s what things look like for the Owls right now. It only has two Quad 1 wins. It is on the edge of falling to the bubble, but if the season ended today, FAU would still be in.

Meanwhile, Memphis saved its tournament hopes with a win against Wichita State last Saturday, ending a four-game losing streak that included a Quad 3 loss to South Florida and a Quad 4 loss to Rice.

It has quality non-conference wins against Texas A&M, Clemson and Virginia and has a chance to play Florida Atlantic twice before the regular season ends. But one more bad loss and Memphis will need to win the AAC tournament title to get in.

The rest

Locks: none

Should be in: Dayton, Indiana State, Drake, St. Mary’s

Work to do: Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Richmond

St. Mary’s was on the bubble up until last week but moved up to should be in after a win over Gonzaga last Saturday. Indiana State and Drake split their two matchups this year after Indiana State beat Drake last Saturday. As long as neither of them take any bad losses, both should be in.

This is uncharted territory for Gonzaga. Had it beat St. Mary’s, it would have really helped its chances to get in. The Zags are in serious danger of missing the tournament for the first time since 1998. It still does not have a Quad 1 win (0-5 in Quad 1 games this year) and only has three chances left to pick one up and will have to do it on the road: Kentucky on Saturday, San Francisco on Feb. 29 and a rematch against St. Mary’s on March 2, which is the last game of the regular season. It’s hard to imagine a NCAA tournament without Gonzaga, but it’s very possible.

Grand Canyon is 21-2 and 11-1 in the WAC but is without a Quad 1 or Quad 2 win and has a loss to sub-100 Seattle. It likely needs to run the table the rest of the regular season and then make the WAC title game to even have a prayer at an at-large.

Richmond has a better shot, with one Quad 1 win (Dayton) and five Quad 2 wins. It needs to not lose more than once the rest of the way and then make a deep run in the Atlantic 10 tournament to even feel decent.

By Aidan Joly

The most loaded weekend of the college basketball season, which included four top-10 matchups and other important games in the NCAA tournament landscape, is in the books.

Let’s get into it.

Kansas makes statement in win over Houston

The first of three top-10 matchups on Saturday and four for the entire weekend, Kansas beat Houston 78-65 in Lawrence.

The game wasn’t even that close though. The Jayhawks led by as many as 20 and held a lead of 15+ most of the way. It got everything it needed from Hunter Dickinson, who had 20 points on 9-15 from the field, while Kevin McCullar and Johnny Furphy had 17 each. KJ Adams had 10.

It was an A+ game plan from Bill Self and Kansas executed right from the beginning of the game, jumping out to a double digit lead almost immediately and never looked back.

I had talked a few weeks ago about how Kansas needed a fifth guy to step up. Furphy has been that guy. He has scored at least 11 points in six straight games. Saturday was his second-best game of the season with his 17 points on 6-7 from the field. The freshman has been great.

LJ Cryer had a good game for Houston, scoring a game-high 24 points on 9-20 from the field and made six threes.

Bacot shines in UNC win over Duke

This year’s first edition of UNC-Duke wasn’t overly close either. North Carolina won it 93-84, but similar to Houston and Kansas, it was not that close.

The Tar Heels led by 15 in the second half and it never seemed like Duke had a chance to win. It went on a brief run in the closing minutes, but it was never really in doubt.

You can say either Armando Bacot or Harrison Ingram was the best player on the floor. Bacot scored 25 points on 10-13 from the field, grabbed 10 rebounds and dished out five assists. Despite a lower point total Ingram may have been better, scoring 21 points and hit five threes and had 13 rebounds. You can make an argument for either of them.

RJ Davis was really good too, with 17 points.

Overall, North Carolina was better than Duke the whole way. It got to nearly every 50-50 ball, played with more urgency and was much more physical than the Blue Devils. Duke will need to be a more physical team if it wants to make a deep March run.

Tennessee’s experience shows in win against Kentucky

The third top-10 game on Saturday night, Tennessee went on the road and beat Kentucky 103-92 at Rupp Arena.

The big takeaway in this game for me was that Tennessee looked like a bunch of 23-year-olds playing college basketball, while Kentucky looked like a bunch of 19-year-olds playing basketball.

The Volunteers just came into the game so prepared and like Kansas, executed the game plan really well.

Rob Dillingham delivered one of the best performances you’ll see in a losing effort, with 35 points off the bench on 14-20 from the field. But outside of him, Antonio Reeves and Reed Sheppard, the Wildcats didn’t get much out of anyone else. Remember Zvonimir Ivisic’s huge debut against Georgia a few weeks ago? He has only scored four total points in 19 minutes since then and had a DNP on Saturday. He’s already slipping and it’s clear he wasn’t ready to come in and be this star contributor.

The defense is suspect too. It has allowed 90+ points four times in its past seven games. That needs to be shored up.

Okay, back to Tennessee. Josiah-Jordan James had his best game of the season, scoring 26 points and had five rebounds, while Zakai Zeigler had 26 points as well and 13 assists. Dalton Knecht, who has been such a good addition for the Vols, had 16 points. All five starters were in double figures.

The Vols were prepared to go in and win. They did just that.

Purdue keeps rolling, but Wisconsin keeps it close

The top-10 matchups continued on Sunday, with Purdue grabbing a 75-69 win against Wisconsin in Madison.

Credit to Wisconsin. This game could have been a blowout with some question marks still lingering about the Badgers coming in to the day. They could have had a chance but struggled shooting from three, going 3-19 from behind the arc.

It did keep Zach Edey out of the game in the first half as he only had five points in the first stanza. However, that wasn’t much the case in the second half as Edey finished with 18 points and 13 rebounds. Lance Jones led the Boilermakers with 20 points and Braden Smith had 19.

For Wisconsin, they need one more guy to really compete in the Big Ten. Tyler Wahl can be one of the best players in the Big Ten when he is on, and AJ Storr, while more consistent and could be a guy to lead a team, I feel like fits better as a number two guy on a team. Will it be Chucky Hepburn? Max Klesmit? Someone else? We’ll see.

Baylor squeaks past Iowa State

Baylor got past Iowa State by the skin of its teeth. Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic made a three at the buzzer, but it was deemed to be just after the buzzer sounded, giving Baylor a 70-68 win.

It was another great Big 12 basketball game and this is two teams that can make a deep run in the tournament.

There were some rightful questions about how RayJ Dennis would adjust to Baylor after transferring in from Toledo, but he’s been great. He had 18 points in the win.

Also, Scott Drew got ejected from this game! It was for going too far on the court, which has turned into a real discussion in college basketball this season. Some more egregious violations haven’t resulted in ejections, but this one did. ESPN noted on the broadcast that that was the first time the very mild-mannered Drew was tossed out of a game in 21 years as Baylor’s head coach.

UConn wins a big one

The No. 1 team in the country winning a huge game at Madison Square Garden against St. John’s usually isn’t the sixth entry on one of these, but that was what this weekend was.

The Huskies kept rolling with a 77-64 win against the Johnnies at MSG to start the day out. Cam Spencer remains one of the best big-game players in the country, scoring 23 points on 7-13 from the field, including 5-7 from three. Stephon Castle had 21 for UConn while Tristen Newton had 18 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.

Daniss Jenkins had 19 for St. John’s, which falls to 5-6 in the Big East and 13-9 overall. The Johnnies are starting to trend towards the NIT, which is kind of a disappointment as many expected St. John’s to be in the tournament in Rick Pitino’s first season.

Butler is trending towards tournament

Elsewhere in the Big East, Butler picked up a huge 99-98 win against Creighton in Omaha on Friday night.

The Bulldogs now own wins against Texas Tech (at home) and road wins against Marquette and Creighton. They sit at 15-7 overall and 6-5 in league play. It has three Quad 1 wins.

Butler has not made the NCAA tournament officially since 2018 (it would have made it in 2020), but right now this group is trending towards getting into the tournament.

Not bad for the second season of Thad Matta’s return to Indianapolis and being picked 10th in the preseason poll, one point ahead of DePaul.

On Monday, it sits at 49th in both the KenPom and NET rankings. It can certainly be the fifth Big East team.

Ranked South Carolina

South Carolina, which was picked dead last in the SEC preseason poll, is in second place in the SEC.

The Gamecocks only played three teams with a pulse in the non-conference portion of the schedule (it lost one of them), so SEC play was supposed to be when things went backwards.

It hasn’t. South Carolina is 7-2 in SEC play and kept it rolling with a 72-62 win against Georgia on Saturday. At 19-3 overall, it became a ranked team on Monday for the first time since 2017, debuting at No. 15 in the AP poll.

Its 19 wins are already the most for the program in a single season since 2016-17, the same year it was ranked. What did it do that year? It went to the Final Four.

Lamont Paris has done a heck of a job in year two in Columbia, turning Meechie Johnson, B.J. Mack and Ta’lon Cooper into very good SEC players. He should be the shoe-in SEC coach of the year as well as be in the conversation for national coach of the year.

Quick hitters

• Gonzaga is running out of chances after a 64-62 loss to Saint Mary’s at The Kennel late Saturday night. With the WCC looking like a two-bid league at most, it will have to grab some Quad 1 wins. It only has three left: at Kentucky on Saturday, at San Francisco on Feb. 29 and at Saint Mary’s on March 2. It is 0-5 in Q1 games this year. Of course, it can win the WCC tournament and this is a moot point. The Zags have not missed the NCAA tournament since 1998, the third-longest streak in the country (Kansas, Michigan State).
• Things are unraveling in Arkansas after the Razorbacks were blown out by LSU 95-74 on Saturday. It dropped Arkansas to 2-7 in SEC play and 11-11 overall. After overportaling, this is the worst Arkansas team of the Eric Musselman era. There is just no chemistry and it shows.
• Florida State’s at-large chances are probably done after a 101-92 loss to Louisville on Saturday. That’s a Quad 3 loss, making the Seminoles 2-3 in Q3 games. It also has a Q4 loss.
• Indiana State and Drake should both be in the tournament after Indiana State beat Drake 75-67 on Saturday. The teams split their two matchups this season, an ideal scenario for both making the tournament. The Sycamores won their 20th game of the season with the win. Regardless of what happens in the Missouri Valley tournament, both of these squads are tournament teams.

By Aidan Joly

The regular season comes to an end in a little more than a month, meaning that we should be keeping an eye on mid-majors that are making noise and bust some brackets next month.

So, here are eight candidates to do it.

Grand Canyon

The Antelopes are currently 20-2 and 10-1 in WAC play, its only losses coming to South Carolina in November and a league loss against Seattle on Jan. 20.

It’s a combination of good offense and good defense for Bryce Drew’s squad, which is led by Tyson Grant-Foster, who averages 19.3 points per game as well as Gabe McGlothan, who averages 15.2 PPG and hits his threes at a 44.4% clip.

It’s an experienced group – Grant-Foster and McGlothan are both seniors, while third and fourth leading scorers Ray Harrison and Collin Moore are both juniors.

The Antelops have gotten some top 25 votes this season, making them one of the better teams in the country. They rank 62nd in KenPom on Friday. Even if they don’t win the WAC, an at-large may be in order.

High Point

First-year head coach Alan Huss is working wonders with the Panthers, who sit at 19-4 and a perfect 8-0 in Big South play. High Point is also undefeated at home this season and has not lost a game since Dec. 16, which was against Georgia. Its last loss to a non-high major was on Nov. 22.

The defense certainly is suspect and ranks 302nd in the country in KenPom, but what they lack there they make up for in offense, which ranks 30th in the nation. It has scored 80 or more points in 15 of its 23 games this season (it has also scored 78 twice), meaning the Panthers make a ton of shots.

Duke Miles averages 19.2 PPG, while Kezza Giffa puts up 16.5 per contest and makes 42.3% from behind the arc.

While the defense may doom it in a tournament game, an eye should be kept on High Point the rest of the year. It will likely have to battle with UNC Asheville, Winthrop or Gardner-Webb for the Big South’s automatic bid.

The program has never been to the NCAA tournament.

Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech has already surpassed its win total from last year and stands at 16-6, 6-1 in Conference USA. After a 9-2 start it lost three of four between Dec. 16 and Jan. 6 to drop it to 10-6, but since that the Bulldogs have won six in a row.

And, the Bulldogs have gotten better in the past few weeks and have won each of their last four games by at least 14 points, including a 93-53 drubbing of FIU on Thursday night. Like High Point, it also has not lost at home.

Defense is the name of the game here and that’s another thing that’s getting better. The Bulldogs have given up 57 or less points in five of the past six games. Its offense does not rank in the top 100 in KenPom, but the defense ranks 37th in the nation. Its defensive effective field goal percentage is sixth in the country and two-point percentage third.

Daniel Batcho ranks eighth in the nation in rebounds per game (10.5), while he also averages 15.0 points per game. Leading scorer Isaiah Crawford averages 15.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest.

Louisiana Tech, if it can win the C-USA, is likely in line for a 10 or 11 seed. The top jobber in the league is Sam Houston State, so it will have to get past that challenge first. If it can, watch out, this may be Cinderella.

McNeese State

Will Wade’s return to college basketball is going as well as it could. His Cowboys are 19-2 and 8-0 in Southland play. McNeese has not lost since Nov. 22 (which was to Louisiana Tech) and is currently on a 14-game winning streak.

Its three-point percentage is the best in the country at 41.6% as a team in KenPom but fourth in the NCAA rankings. Either way, it is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, which is what gets it so many wins.

Shahada Wells averages 18.3 points per game and makes 41.7% of his threes and DJ Richards Jr. makes them at a 47.1% rate while averaging 11.1 points per game. Four Cowboys average in the double digits.

McNeese plays in the Southland Conference, which doesn’t have a ton of good teams. Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Lamar will be the top teams to battle with here. Corpus Christi gave it a tough game on Jan. 22, but McNeese won 62-61.

McNeese has also never made the NCAA tournament. Wade will try to change that.

Appalachian State

Moving over into the Sun Belt and another North Carolina team, Appalachian State currently sits on top of that league with a 9-1 conference record and is 18-4 overall.

A team where defense is the name of the game, Dustin Kerns’ Mountaineers rank 33rd in the country in total defense on KenPom, seventh in effective field goal percentage, 10th in opponent two-point percentage and eighth in block percentage.

It’s a real team effort on both ends of the floor. Tre’von Spillers averages 14.0 points per game to lead the team, while Donovan Gregory averages 12.2 points per game.

If it makes the tournament, it likely ends up on the 12 or 13-seed line. The Sun Belt does have Troy and James Madison (remember them?), while Louisiana is also lurking. The Sun Belt tournament will be tough to get through, but if the Mountaineers can, it might be a team to pencil in for a first-round upset.

Samford

“Bucky Ball” is in full swing in Birmingham, with fourth-year head coach Bucky McMillan’s crazy-fast tempo having Samford rolling for the second year in a row.

Samford ranks fifth in the country in average possession length and 10th in adjusted tempo. After an 0-2 start to the season (Purdue, VCU), Samford has won 19 of 20 and is 19-3 and 8-1 in Southern Conference play.

It not only plays fast, it hit shots. It is eighth in the country in effective field goal percentage (KenPom) and third in the country in three-point percentage (NCAA). It has eclipsed 100 points on four occasions this season and scored an unheard of 134 against VMI on Jan. 13.

Four players average in double figures, led by Achor Achor’s 15.8 per game while making 47.5% from three, while A.J. Staton-McCray averages 12.9 per game on 43.8% from three. Jermaine Marshall and Jaden Campbell both average in double figures, too.

Samford has not been to the NCAA tournament since 2000. It will have to go through the likes of UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga (which it lost to in the quarterfinals of the SoCon tournament last year as the No. 2 seed) and Furman, first.

UC Irvine

Heading back out to the west coast for this one, the Anteaters have been here before. UC Irvine was a 13-seed in 2019 and pulled off an upset of Kansas State before losing to Oregon. That team won 31 total games.

This year’s UC Irvine is unlikely to reach that number of wins, but it can get close. It currently sits at 16-6 and 9-1 in Big West play. It beat USC during the non-conference portion of the schedule, too.

It ranks 19th in the country in defense on KenPom, eighth in effective field goal percentage and sixth in opponent tw0-point field goal percentage. It has held opponents to 60 or less points seven times this season.

The offense is a question, it has maxed out at 77 points in conference play and tends to play games around 70. But if it works, it works for Russell Turner’s team.

Pierre Crockrell is one of the best passers around, second in the country in assist rate behind Virginia’s Reece Beekman.

Indiana State

We might be saving the best for last here. Indiana State has been wildly impressive to the point where an at-large bid could be in order if makes a run in the Missouri Valley tournament.

The Sycamores are 19-3 this season and 10-1 in Missouri Valley. It is one of the best shooting teams in the country. Indiana State leads the nation in effective field goal percentage, leads the country in three-point percentage and is fifth in the country in points per game (86.0).

Two of its three losses were to Alabama and Michigan State. Other than that, a loss to Drake is the only thing keeping it from an unblemished league record.

Robbie Avila is one of the most fun players in college basketball and if Indiana State gets to March, he is sure to be a guy who captures the attention of America, wearing specs during games and standing at 6-foot-10. Who doesn’t love that? And he’s the second-leading scorer at 16.1 PPG. He also makes his threes at a 42.3% clip and grabs 7.3 rebounds per game. The only guy above him is Isaiah Swope and his 18.3 points per game.

The Missouri Valley is a three-horse race, with Drake and Bradley as the top competitors. Two of those three might get in either way.

By Aidan Joly

Can you believe it’s almost February? Another weekend down in college basketball, here’s a recap of the big storylines.

Cornell hands Princeton first Ivy League loss

This blogger attended two games in Central New York on Saturday, we’ll get into the first one first.

In the day game, Cornell took down Princeton to hand the Tigers their first Ivy League loss of the season and just the team’s second loss overall. The Big Red’s stifling defense led Cornell to an 83-68 victory.

Cornell played a full-court press defense the whole way and it really affected Princeton, which only made 19 field goals and shot just 32% from the field, including just 5-27 from three. Sophomore sensation Xaivian Lee did have 17 points to pace the Tigers, but 10 of those points came from the free throw line. Otherwise, he shot just 3-13 from the field. No other Tiger was in double figures.

Meanwhile, Cornell shot almost 58% from the field. Nazir Williams had 20 points and was one of four in double figures.

Brian Earl has been the head coach at Cornell since 2016 and this appears to be the biggest win of his tenure. It improves the Big Red to 15-3 on the season and 4-0 in the Ivy, tied with Yale for first place. This surely could have been a preview for the Ivy League title game in New York City on Selection Sunday. It also sinks any real chance Princeton had at an at-large bid. It now needs to win the conference tournament to see the NCAA tournament. These two will meet again in New Jersey on March 2.

Syracuse keeps stacking wins

In the nightcap, Syracuse took down NC State 77-65 at JMA Dome.

JJ Starling and Judah Mintz are becoming the dynamic duo that the Orange faithful hoped they would be and it really showed on Saturday night. Starling paced Syracuse with 26 points and was 9-17 from the field, while Mintz had 20 (14 coming from the charity stripe) and dished out nine assists.

This is still a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that took a bad loss at home to Florida State earlier in the week, but four of its six losses have come against Duke, North Carolina, Tennessee and Gonzaga. Not a bad resume, but it still lacks a quality win and is 1-5 in Quad 1 games. Its lone Quad 1 win was a road win against Pitt on Jan. 16.

In order to make the tournament, it will need to avoid bad losses and win at least a game or two in the ACC tournament. It lacks chances at great wins the rest of the way, with the only real one being a home game against UNC on Feb. 13. We shall see about the Orange in Adrian Autry’s first year at the helm.

DJ Horne had 15 points for the Wolfpack, while Casey Morsell had 14.

Ed Cooley returns to Providence

One of the most anticipated games of the regular season, former Providence head coach Ed Cooley made his return to Friartown as the head coach of Georgetown after dramatically leaving last spring.

It went about as expected, but credit should be given to Providence fans. It didn’t go overboard. There were some expletive-laced chants throughout the game, but nothing too awful.

And, Providence was able to get the last laugh, beating Georgetown 84-76.

At some point, hopefully things will smooth over between Cooley and Providence and he will be able to come back and be remembered for bringing the program to national relevance. In his decade-plus in Providence, there was a lot more good than bad. He’s a legend there, and eventually, deserves to be treated as such.

Kansas continues to get exposed in loss

Kansas took yet another loss on Saturday, dropping a road game to Iowa State 79-75.

This loss was not as bad as the West Virginia loss, but now the Jayhawks have lost two of the last three and three of the last six.

It continues to get inconsistent production from its best players. It had the four good players, but the question is who that fifth guy would be. It is beginning to be Johnny Furphy, who has scored in the double digits in four straight games, but Dajuan Harris was limited to nine points in 38 minutes on Saturday.

This can’t keep happening for the Jayhawks. They are 4-3 in Big 12 play and seem unlikely to win the regular season title now. It faces Oklahoma State on Tuesday before a big game against Houston on Saturday.

Memphis continues freefall

Memphis took a 97-88 loss to UAB on Sunday and has now lost three games in a row after previous losses to South Florida and Tulane.

The Tigers are now 4-3 in American Athletic play after a 4-0 start and looking like it, instead of FAU, was going to be the team to beat. Now, FAU is 7-1 in league play, back in the top 25 and sitting pretty, tied with Charlotte for first place.

This has not been the Memphis team we two or three weeks ago. The defense has been the culprit. Over the past five games, Memphis has given up 87.8 points per game after giving up 66.6 points per game in the five games before that (it went 5-0 in those games).

The Tigers are going to need to figure it out on the defensive end of the floor, or else the rest of this season could get ugly and it will be seen as a big collapse from Penny Hardaway’s group.

Dayton takes first Atlantic 10 loss

It was eventually coming, but Dayton finally took its first loss of Atlantic 10, falling to Richmond 69-64.

Richmond is now in first place of the Atlantic 10, sitting at 7-0 while Dayton falls to 6-1. This year’s Dayton team is about as close to the 2019-20 edition of the Flyers as you are going to get. Even with a loss, it stayed in the AP top 25 on Monday, sitting at No. 21.

Its at-large chances did take something of a hit on Saturday but as long as it doesn’t take more than one or two regular season losses the rest of the way, the Flyers should be fine. It will face George Washington on Tuesday and then St. Bonaventure on Friday, both at home.

By Aidan Joly

The high-major coaching carousel got rolling for the first time this season on Monday with DePaul firing Tony Stubblefield amidst a 3-15 season that has the Blue Demons 0-7 in Big East play.

Stubblefield was a strange choice to begin with, including some rumors that Nike and some under-the-table power brokers were behind the hire.

The results were predictable, with Stubblefield going 28-54 in his two-plus seasons at the helm.

The job is certainly a tough one. The idea of the job is great: DePaul is a Big East job and the school is located in the heart of Chicago, fruitful with local talent and NIL opportunities and it plays in a great arena.

The reality is different: DePaul ranks dead last in NIL money in the Big East, does not have an on-campus practice facility (although one is set to open in 2026), the arena is off campus, and there is not much fan support due to lack of success and professional sports being king in Chicago.

It won’t get better, either, until there is talent on the roster and the Blue Demons win some games. DePaul has not been to the NCAA tournament since 2004 and only has three winning seasons since.

So, here are some candidates for the job (in no particular order). Note that these are all sitting head coaches. An assistant coach didn’t work this time around, so it’s tough to see them going back to that well.

Bobby Hurley, Arizona State head coach

Of course, this is only if Hurley and Arizona State part ways at the end of the season, which remains to be seen.

Hurley would probably demand to be paid and doesn’t have many local ties, but it would certainly be an infuse of a name into the program and might get some sort of excitement going.

If he is out at Arizona State, DePaul could certainly be a soft landing spot to be able to stay at a high-major.

Kenny Payne, Louisville head coach

Okay, I’ll give you a second to chuckle at this one. Go ahead.

Now that you’re back, hear me out. Payne will assuredly be out at Louisville when the season ends. Payne worked with DePaul athletic director DeWayne Peevy at Kentucky for many years and knows the Chicago area well as a recruiter. He worked to get Anthony Davis to come to Kentucky.

Payne can be a guy who checks several boxes for DePaul, despite the disaster he has created at Louisville. It would for sure create some laughs if he gets the job, but it could just work.

Bryan Mullins, Southern Illinois head coach

Mullins, 37, is an Illinois lifer. He worked as an assistant coach at Loyola-Chicago from 2013-2019 as an assistant before getting the Southern Illinois job.

With the Salukies, he has a 79-62 record and won 23 games last season, the most wins for the program in a single season since 2006-07.

He knows the area well and might just be a guy who is ready to make a jump to the high-major level.

Will Wade, McNeese head coach

Wade might be the only guy on this list who would be a true slam-dunk hire if he gets the job. It would be a big statement of where DePaul wants to be as a program.

Wade is making his return to college basketball and has McNeese at 17-2 and in the top 100 in KenPom rankings. This was despite an NCAA-imposed 10-game suspension to start the season, too. McNeese hasn’t lost a game since he returned from suspension, either.

He is a guy who is willing to do whatever it takes to get guys (yup!) and now would not have to deal with as many rules in order to get them, while also being able to put competitive teams on the floor.

Hiring Wade would be about as clear of a statement you could make about where you want the program to be. But, Wade will probably be on the call list of every high-major team this spring.

Bryce Drew, Grand Canyon head coach

To be fair, Drew is probably pretty comfortable where he’s at. He’s at Grand Canyon with expectations not at the ceiling and has great fan and institutional support for the basketball program.

But, it’s still a low-major job. Drew grinded in the Midwest in the early days of his coaching career at Valparaiso, where he went 124-49 as a head coach before floundering at Vanderbilt.

He’s now 81-29 at Grand Canyon and his stock is back up. At 49, he is still young for a coach, too. Could this be the job to get him back in the Midwest?

Josh Schertz, Indiana State head coach

Schertz, 48, won big at the Division II level for 13 years before taking the Indiana State job in 2021. The first year was a rebuild, but the Sycamores went 23-13 last year and are currently 15-3 and are tied for first place in the Missouri Valley.

The Sycamores rank 42nd in KenPom on Tuesday and are 24th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. It leads the country in effective field goal percentage (61.2%), is second in two-point field goal percentage and second in three-point percentage.

This is one of the best mid-major teams in the country and Schertz is sure to be a hot commodity for high-major programs this spring. With the Midwest ties, DePaul should make a run at him.

Brian Wardle, Bradley head coach

Wardle, 44, has already orchestrated rebuilds at both Green Bay and Bradley, the latter of which he led to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006 in 2019. He won the Missouri Valley tournament in 2020 as well.

At just 44, he has already won nearly 250 games as a Division I head coach. He has Bradley at 13-5 this season, joining Indiana State as one of the best teams in the MVC.

Wardle is from a Chicago suburb and a Midwest lifer. Having it done it twice before, he will more than likely have the patience for a longer rebuild.

Prediction: There’s a few that could be somewhat easy to see. Wade is definitely the flashy hire who would more than likely immediately win at DePaul.

On the other hand, a non-flashy guy who will grind to get results might be the way to go. Schertz may end up somewhere bigger, so both Mullins and Wardle fit the bill here.

That being said, my bet is that it is one of the three between Wade, Mullins or Wardle.

By Aidan Joly

Another week of college hoops is in the books. We are now less than two months away from Selection Sunday. Here’s a recap of the highlights over the weekend.

Kentucky’s Big Z introduces himself

It was revealed on Saturday morning that Kentucky freshman Zvonimir Ivisic would finally be eligible after a three-month battle to get him in the game for the Wildcats.

Ivisic was a highly regarded international prospect from Croatia, but nobody really knew what to expect of him. Opinions definitely varied on if he would be ready to play at this level.

Boy, did he deliver. In his collegiate debut, he scored 13 points, grabbed five rebounds, recorded two assists, three blocks and two steals in just 16 minutes as Kentucky cruised to a 105-96 win against Georgia.

He shot 5-7 from the field and 3-4 from three during the game, too. He was great on defense, too. He stands at 7-foot-2 and was a real interior presence on defense. Five rebounds in 16 minutes isn’t too shabby, either.

It’s unlikely that he will keep up this pace from the field or even be Kentucky’s best player. However, it is clear that this is a massive addition for a Kentucky team that was already humming. He makes a very good team even better. It may lay with him to figure out how far Kentucky makes it in the NCAA tournament.

Kansas gets exposed in loss

The depth of the Kansas Jayhawks coming into the season was going to be depth. It has four good players with Kevin McCullar, Jr., Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams, Jr. and Dajuan Harris, Jr., but who else will step up?

So far, it has been nobody. And now that we are in the thick of Big 12 play, we are really beginning to see that be exposed. It came to something of a head on Saturday with the Jayhawks losing 91-85 to West Virginia, which came into the day ranked 139th in KenPom.

Sure, Kansas is 15-3, but it now falls to 3-2 in conference play (Kansas leads Cincinnati in the first half as I write this). It ranks 26th in the country in both offense and defense in KenPom, and no other real statistics stand out.

This is not one of the better Kansas teams in recent memory. It is fair to say that Kansas is not the best team in the Big 12, and may not be even in the top three or four. It needs someone to step up down the stretch, or else it may end up in an early exit in March.

Creighton wins triple overtime thriller

The best game of the day happened in Newark, N.J., with Creighton and Seton Hall going three overtimes and Creighton ending up on top, 97-94.

This was a game that was all over the place and both teams had several opportunities to win the game late in regulation and the first two overtimes, but it just never happened. Creighton led by four with 13 seconds to go in the second overtime, but Al-Amir Dawes was fouled while shooting a three, made all three from the charity stripe to make it a one-point game. From there, Seton Hall drew a foul just on a steal off the inbound and Kadary Richmond made 1/2 to tie it up before the game went to a third OT, where Creighton did eventually win it.

Overall, it was one of the best college basketball games of the season so far. Seton Hall had three players with 20+ points, while Richmond had a triple-double. Ryan Kalkbrenner scored 28 points for Creighton, while Trey Alexander had 23, including a three with 29 seconds left in the third OT to give Creighton the lead for good.

A quessential Big East game, it was a lot of fun.

Texas gets much-needed win

After back-to-back losses to West Virginia and UCF, it seemed that the Longhorns’ season was teetering on going off the rails.

However, Texas came up with its biggest win of the season on Saturday, with Tyrese Hunter hitting a layup at the buzzer to knock off Baylor 75-73.

It’s a type of win that can change the momentum of the season. Now, Texas is 2-3 in the Big 12 instead of 1-4, which would have spelled doom in Austin. It was also the team’s first real quality win of the season. It had a conference win against Cincinnati but outside of that the only power conference teams it had beaten were Louisville (does this count?) and LSU.

Texas has Oklahoma on the road on Tuesday and then BYU on the road on Saturday before a home game against Houston on Jan. 29. Work is not done for Texas, it needs to continue getting more wins.

South Carolina keeps rolling

South Carolina is one of the most surprising teams in college basketball this season. It currently sits at 15-3 and 3-2 in SEC play after a convincing 77-64 win against Arkansas on Saturday.

The jury is still somewhat out in SEC play, though. But Meechie Johnson has been one of the bigger revelations in the country this season to the tune of 16.7 PPG, while B.J. Mack has been much better than expected. Myles Stute and Ta’Lon Cooper both have been good as well.

Lamont Paris is doing a heck of a job in year two at the helm in Columbia. South Carolina has not been to the NCAA tournament since its surprising run to the Final Four in 2017 (South Carolina has only been to the tournament twice this century!?), that drought may end in a handful of weeks.

We have a coaching change

The first domino fell in the high major coaching carousel on Monday, with DePaul firing Tony Stubblefield in the middle of his third season the helm. Former Marist and James Madison head coach Matt Brady will run the Blue Demons the rest of the way this year.

DePaul is 3-15 this season and fell to 0-7 in Big East play after a 74-60 loss to Butler on Saturday. Its last win came against Chicago State on Dec. 30. Stubblefield went 28-54 in his time with the program.

There may be some interesting candidates for the job – more on that tomorrow though.

By Aidan Joly

The past two nights have brought seven unranked teams taking down ranked teams. They all ranked in terms of how surprising they were, but let’s discuss each of the eight teams that pulled off upsets.

(This is in order of the ranked team they beat)

Nebraska beats No. 1 Purdue

A dream season is unfolding in Lincoln as the Cornhuskers now sit at 13-3 after an 88-72 win against Purdue on Tuesday night.

The win gives Nebraska its best win of the season and what will surely end up being its signature win of the season. Keisei Tominaga is becoming one of the premier shooters in the country, while Rienk Mast has become one of the most impactful transfer adds around. Tominaga 19 points and hit five threes in the win against Purdue, while Mast scored 18 points on 8-17 from the field.

On top of that, Brice Williams has been a very solid third option scoring and also grabbed 11 rebounds in the win. Juwan Gary rounds out the four players who average in double figures.

At 3-2 in Big Ten play, this is the first time in the Fred Hoiberg era that Nebraska has been above .500 in league play in January.

Some will remember that Nebraska won five of its last six regular season games last season and the momentum is really shifting in Lincoln. Now, there is a real chance that the program can make its first NCAA tournament appearance in a decade.

Iowa State beats No. 2 Houston

There are no more undefeated teams in college basketball as the Cyclones took down No. 2 Houston 57-53 on Tuesday.

Iowa State is now 1-1 in Big 12 play and 12-3 overall after the victory. The Cyclones picked up some votes in the AP rankings but did not crack the top 25, but are sure to pick up some more AP points this week.

The key for Iowa State this year has been defense, ranking third in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. It is also one of the best teams in the country in forcing turnovers, which it forced Houston into 16 turnovers on Tuesday night.

Tamin Lipsey is one of the best defensive players in the country. He averages 3.3 steals per game and grabbed eight of them in one game against Prairie View A&M in December. Big man Hason Ward missed nine games with a foot injury suffered in November, but has been back for Iowa State’s last three games. He’s still playing somewhat limited minutes, but is very good as well.

The Cyclones should finish in the top half of the Big 12. This team is a group that will make noise the last two months of the season.

UCF beats No. 3 Kansas

How about this one?! After losing by 25 to Kansas State in its first-ever Big 12 league game and looking totally overmatched while doing so, the Knights turn around and take down Kansas in Orlando 65-60 on Wednesday night.

Similar, Johnny Dawkins’ team hangs its hat on defense. It ranks eighth in the country in turnover percentage – Kansas turned the ball over 18 times in the loss. It also blocked seven Jayhawk shots, with CJ Walker recording three of them. It limited Hunter Dickinson to 12 points and KJ Adams to 10. Dickinson’s 12 was his second-lowest scoring output of the season.

It is still going to be quite a learning curve for UCF to really be competitive in the Big 12 moving forward and the Knights will likely struggle, but this win is a stunner that will remain a proud moment for the entire season.

But hey, maybe they’ll surprise. Stranger things have happened.

Mississippi State beats No. 5 Tennessee

The Bulldogs beat Tennessee in Starkville on Wednesday night 77-72.

The common denominator remains the same here – defense. Chris Jans’ team ranks 10th in the country in defensive efficiency, is ninth in the country in defensive effective field goal percentage and sixth in the nation in opponent three-point percentage. It has held teams to shooting just 27% from three this season. That was right on the money in the win as Tennessee shot 8-29 from three, which is 27.6%.

Mississippi State did lose the turnover battle 18-16.

DJ Jeffries did not have much of a scoring output at only four points, but grabbed five steals and also blocked a shot in 32 minutes of action. It didn’t get the scoring from starters that it needed but got that lift from Josh Hubbard, who scored a career-high 25 points on 8-15 from the field.

Mississippi State is one of those teams on the bubble as well but now, it has a great win that will last all the way to March. Right now, it likely puts them on the right side of the bubble. Plenty of more opportunities to grab another great win or two await in the SEC.

TCU beats No. 9 Oklahoma

If you remember, the Horned Frogs started the season 7-0 before it lost to Clemson in a neutral site game on Dec. 9. The 80-71 win over Oklahoma on Wednesday night improved this group to 12-3 and 1-1 in the Big 12.

It’s not unfair to say that Oklahoma took advantage of one of the easier schedules in the country and got into the top 10 in the country because of that. So, the win does feel like more of an indictment on Oklahoma than it does praising TCU.

We’ve known all along that Jamie Dixon has a good team this season. Emanuel Miller, Jameer Nelson Jr. and Avery Anderson is one of the best trios in the Big 12 and should continue to win games consistently.

But still, this win is TCU’s first quad 1 win of the season. In the Big 12 there’s lots of chances for those but after going 0-3 in quad 1 games leading up to this, the Horned Frogs did need to get a win like this.

Butler beats No. 11 Marquette

The Bulldogs picked up the biggest win of the second era of Thad Matta in Indianapolis, taking down Marquette on the road 69-62 on Wednesday night.

Butler caught Marquette on a bad shooting night. The Golden Eagles were 5-31 from three as part of a night where it shot just under 33% from the field overall. Kam Jones was 1-10 from behind the arc, while Tyler Kolek was 0-7 from three. Kolek had just two points in total as he was 1-13 from the field.

Four Butler Bulldogs finished in double figures, with Pierre Brooks II and Landon Moore scoring 14 points each while Jalen Thomas and Posh Alexander had 10 each.

Butler is still in something of a rebuild and has struggled in some games – this win only improves it to 2-3 in Big East play. It is 11-5 after the win, but only three of those wins have come against top 100 KenPom teams.

Still, it’s a very quality win and one to be proud of.

Boise State beats No. 17 Colorado State

It was a surprising result in the Mountain West. Colorado State was ranked No. 17 in the country and rising before getting taken down by the Broncos 65-58 on Tuesday.

Again, Boise State is one of the top defensive teams in the country, ranking 33th in the country in defensive efficiency. It forced Isaiah Stevens, usually very sure-handed, into the turning the ball over six times. In total, Colorado State turned the ball over 16 times.

Right now, the Mountain West has three teams ranked in the top 20 in the AP rankings with Utah State and San Diego State checking in there too. The dream of a five-bid Mountain West is still alive. Colorado State, Utah State and San Diego State are looking good at this point, if Nevada takes care of business it will certainly be looking good, while Boise State is trying to play its way onto the bubble. A win like this sure helps. Maybe New Mexico can squeeze onto the bubble too.

Virginia Tech beats No. 22 Clemson

This win barely registers as an upset as Clemson was favored by just 1.5 points, but the Virginia Tech beat the Tigers pretty convincingly, beating them 87-72.

It improved Virginia Tech t0 10-5 overall and 2-2 in ACC play.

Sean Pedulla has been a very solid player in the ACC for several years now and he came up huge in the win, scoring 32 points on 9-16 from the field. He also dished out seven assists Tyler Nickel had 24 points off the bench as well.

The big thing on Wednesday night was Virginia Tech shooting 13-24 from three, good for 54.2%. That was its best performance three all season. Even more impressive was that it did it with Hunter Cattoor, who shoots 41.4% from three, not scoring at all. Pedulla was 6-10 from three, while Nickel was 5-7.

Virginia Tech is still on the outside looking in for the tournament. Only three of its 10 wins are against top 100 KenPom teams and six of the 10 are against top 200 teams (including Wofford, who is ranked at No. 200 even).

Still some work to do for the Hokies, but right now they still project as a mid-pack ACC team. It will need to finish in the top five or so to have a real shot at an at-large bid.

By Aidan Joly

The first full weekend of conference play is in the books and it was glorious.

It was wall-to-wall on Saturday with 12-plus hours of action, plus some intriguing games and storylines on both Friday and Sunday as well.

Let’s get into what happened.

Purdue kicks weekend off with win

Purdue defended home court on Friday night, picking up a 83-78 win against No. 9 Illinois.

The game wasn’t as close as the score indicated, save for Illinois making a run at the end.

Zach Edey didn’t have as large of a scoring output in this one with only 10 points (although that was on 5-5 from the field), he did grab 15 rebounds. Trey Kaufman-Renn came up big to pick up the slack, scoring 23 points on 8-12 from the field and practically willed himself to a win.

Illinois’ Marcus Domask proved himself once again as a big game player, scoring 26 points in the losing effort.

Seton Hall, St John’s make statements

A pair of Big East teams made big statements with wins on Saturday.

Seton Hall was the first to do so, pulling off a 78-75 upset win against No. 7 Marquette, holding off a big charge by the Golden Eagles in the final minutes. The Pirates are now in a tie for the lead in the Big East at 3-1.

That mark includes wins over UConn, Providence and now Marquette, all ranked at the time of the win. It should win its next two games as well against Georgetown and Butler, which would make it 5-1 in league play.

Al-Amir Dawes was huge in the win for the Pirates, scoring 23 points on 7-10 from the field, while leading scorer Kadary Richmond 21 points on 8-16 from the field.

This group has proved to be better than many thought it would be in the preseason and that is a testament to how Shaheen Holloway has built this team. Now, the results are coming. The aforementioned three wins in the Big East so far will prove huge come March and if Seton Hall continues to take care of business, it could very well put the Pirates on the right side of making the NCAA tournament.

Slightly later in the day, St. John’s went into Finneran Pavilion and picked up the program’s first win in that building since Jan. 13, 1993, beating Villanova 81-71.

It was a major statement win for Rick Pitino and the Red Storm, who have made it clear that the team will compete in the top half of the Big East right out of the gate. Also sitting at 3-1 in Big East play, it has done so thus far.

In Saturday’s win, Joel Soriano, Daniss Jenkins and Brady Dunlap all came up big. St. John’s has a home game against Providence on Wednesday before a big meeting against Creighton on Saturday.

Houston is the last undefeated

The Houston Cougars are the final undefeated team in the nation after James Madison took an 81-71 loss to Southern Miss and Ole Miss was blown out 90-64 at the hands on Tennessee, both on Saturday.

The Cougar express kept rolling on Saturday, dispatching West Virginia 89-55 to improve to 14-0. It has road games coming up against Iowa State on Tuesday and TCU on Saturday before returning home on Jan. 17 to face Texas Tech. Its toughest stretch of the season with three road games against BYU (Jan. 23), Texas (Jan. 29) and Kansas (Feb. 3) in the span of four games lurks in the distance.

Another concerning FAU loss

Florida Atlantic took another bad loss on Saturday, falling to Charlotte 70-68 to drop to 1-1 in AAC play.

The Owls have now lost two of their past three and didn’t look the best while beating East Carolina. This team has looked shaky since beating Arizona back on Dec. 23. It’s tough to diagnose what the problem is, but it seems to be just this group having a tough time adjusting to the new level of play.

In this week’s AP poll, the Owls dropped to No. 24 in the country, its lowest mark of the season. If FAU keeps taking these types of losses, it may end up missing the NCAA tournament.

Arizona State is 4-0 in Pac-12 play

Sure, it hasn’t been against the best competition and the Sun Devils will likely need to either win 15+ games in conference play and/or grab a win over Arizona in one of the two meetings, but it has been a semi-surprising start to league play in Tempe.

The first three wins came against Stanford, California and Utah, but the best win came on Saturday with a 76-73 win against Colorado, a team that should be in the top half of the Pac-12 this season.

Adam Miller has been a nice revelation for Bobby Hurley’s group. He scored 18 points in the win against Colorado to up his average point total to 13.2 per game after he didn’t play until Dec. 16. Frankie Collins should be more consistent scoring-wise, but some other weapons such as Jose Perez and Jamiya Neal have done a nice job.

The Pac-12 is definitely weak, but ASU could find themselves on the bubble in two months.

Wake Forest proves to be legit

Wake Forest is a team on the rise in the ACC. It improved to 3-0 in league play with an 86-82 overtime win against Miami on Saturday.

Now at 11-3 overall, the Demon Deacons haven’t lost since Nov. 19 and are on a nine-game winning streak.

Wake Forest did start the season 2-3, but things changed when Gonzaga transfer Efton Reid got a waiver to play. He has become one of the best rebounders in the country, averaging 9.3 per game and has had three games with 11 or more boards. He had 11 in the win against Miami. At the beginning of the year Steve Forbes’ team didn’t have a true interior presence, but Reid, who stands at 7-foot-0, has solved that issue.

With Hunter Sallis playing like one of the best guards in the ACC, Kevin Miller having some huge games as of late and Cameron Hildreth being better than expected, Wake Forest has a very dangerous three-guard attack that can do well against any team.

UNC is very reliable

Staying in the ACC, gone seems to be the high variance North Carolina teams we have seen in the past couple of years.

This year’s edition of the Tar Heels is one of the most reliable teams in the country. It proved that once again by going on the road and beating No. 16 Clemson 65-55 at Littlejohn Coliseum.

What’s different about these Tar Heels? Defense and experience. North Carolina ranks 16th in the country in defensive efficiency after ranking 46th in the country in that stat last season. In its last three games, it has allowed just 57.3 points per game as well. On Saturday, UNC limited Clemson to 1-18 from three, the Tigers’ worst performance from three this season by a significant margin.

Experience is also a big part of this group. The Tar Heels ranked fourth in the country in KenPom’s D-1 experience. UNC was 24th in the country last year, but was 212th in the country in 2021-22 and 263rd in 2020-21 – which was Roy Williams’ final season in Chapel Hill. Hubert Davis seems to be figuring out that experience wins games and we are seeing the results this season.

More Michigan drama

Wolverine fans can and should be distracted by its football team playing in the national championship game on Monday night, but it was a bizarre Sunday for its basketball program.

Michigan was playing Penn State at The Palestra, where Penn State plays a home game every few years or so in Philadelphia.

Juwan Howard bizarrely had assistant coach Phil Martelli serve as the acting head coach for the game, citing that Martelli is a Philadelphia native and former St. Joe’s head coach. Martelli’s son Jimmy is an assistant coach at Penn State as well. Howard sat on the bench as an assistant coach for the afternoon.

The decision didn’t work. Michigan did lead by 10 at the half, but blew the lead and lost to Penn State 79-73.

I understand the nice gesture, but it makes little sense. This is a game you come into at 6-8 and had lost three in a row, including a loss to McNeese State and a loss to Minnesota, who was picked last in the Big Ten. You probably need a win here and it didn’t happen. It now falls to 6-9 overall and 1-3 in league play.

It encapsulates the drama that has been this Michigan basketball season. It’s tough to understand.