By Aidan Joly
The regular season comes to an end in a little more than a month, meaning that we should be keeping an eye on mid-majors that are making noise and bust some brackets next month.
So, here are eight candidates to do it.
Grand Canyon
The Antelopes are currently 20-2 and 10-1 in WAC play, its only losses coming to South Carolina in November and a league loss against Seattle on Jan. 20.
It’s a combination of good offense and good defense for Bryce Drew’s squad, which is led by Tyson Grant-Foster, who averages 19.3 points per game as well as Gabe McGlothan, who averages 15.2 PPG and hits his threes at a 44.4% clip.
It’s an experienced group – Grant-Foster and McGlothan are both seniors, while third and fourth leading scorers Ray Harrison and Collin Moore are both juniors.
The Antelops have gotten some top 25 votes this season, making them one of the better teams in the country. They rank 62nd in KenPom on Friday. Even if they don’t win the WAC, an at-large may be in order.
High Point
First-year head coach Alan Huss is working wonders with the Panthers, who sit at 19-4 and a perfect 8-0 in Big South play. High Point is also undefeated at home this season and has not lost a game since Dec. 16, which was against Georgia. Its last loss to a non-high major was on Nov. 22.
The defense certainly is suspect and ranks 302nd in the country in KenPom, but what they lack there they make up for in offense, which ranks 30th in the nation. It has scored 80 or more points in 15 of its 23 games this season (it has also scored 78 twice), meaning the Panthers make a ton of shots.
Duke Miles averages 19.2 PPG, while Kezza Giffa puts up 16.5 per contest and makes 42.3% from behind the arc.
While the defense may doom it in a tournament game, an eye should be kept on High Point the rest of the year. It will likely have to battle with UNC Asheville, Winthrop or Gardner-Webb for the Big South’s automatic bid.
The program has never been to the NCAA tournament.
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech has already surpassed its win total from last year and stands at 16-6, 6-1 in Conference USA. After a 9-2 start it lost three of four between Dec. 16 and Jan. 6 to drop it to 10-6, but since that the Bulldogs have won six in a row.
And, the Bulldogs have gotten better in the past few weeks and have won each of their last four games by at least 14 points, including a 93-53 drubbing of FIU on Thursday night. Like High Point, it also has not lost at home.
Defense is the name of the game here and that’s another thing that’s getting better. The Bulldogs have given up 57 or less points in five of the past six games. Its offense does not rank in the top 100 in KenPom, but the defense ranks 37th in the nation. Its defensive effective field goal percentage is sixth in the country and two-point percentage third.
Daniel Batcho ranks eighth in the nation in rebounds per game (10.5), while he also averages 15.0 points per game. Leading scorer Isaiah Crawford averages 15.8 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest.
Louisiana Tech, if it can win the C-USA, is likely in line for a 10 or 11 seed. The top jobber in the league is Sam Houston State, so it will have to get past that challenge first. If it can, watch out, this may be Cinderella.
McNeese State
Will Wade’s return to college basketball is going as well as it could. His Cowboys are 19-2 and 8-0 in Southland play. McNeese has not lost since Nov. 22 (which was to Louisiana Tech) and is currently on a 14-game winning streak.
Its three-point percentage is the best in the country at 41.6% as a team in KenPom but fourth in the NCAA rankings. Either way, it is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, which is what gets it so many wins.
Shahada Wells averages 18.3 points per game and makes 41.7% of his threes and DJ Richards Jr. makes them at a 47.1% rate while averaging 11.1 points per game. Four Cowboys average in the double digits.
McNeese plays in the Southland Conference, which doesn’t have a ton of good teams. Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Lamar will be the top teams to battle with here. Corpus Christi gave it a tough game on Jan. 22, but McNeese won 62-61.
McNeese has also never made the NCAA tournament. Wade will try to change that.
Appalachian State
Moving over into the Sun Belt and another North Carolina team, Appalachian State currently sits on top of that league with a 9-1 conference record and is 18-4 overall.
A team where defense is the name of the game, Dustin Kerns’ Mountaineers rank 33rd in the country in total defense on KenPom, seventh in effective field goal percentage, 10th in opponent two-point percentage and eighth in block percentage.
It’s a real team effort on both ends of the floor. Tre’von Spillers averages 14.0 points per game to lead the team, while Donovan Gregory averages 12.2 points per game.
If it makes the tournament, it likely ends up on the 12 or 13-seed line. The Sun Belt does have Troy and James Madison (remember them?), while Louisiana is also lurking. The Sun Belt tournament will be tough to get through, but if the Mountaineers can, it might be a team to pencil in for a first-round upset.
Samford
“Bucky Ball” is in full swing in Birmingham, with fourth-year head coach Bucky McMillan’s crazy-fast tempo having Samford rolling for the second year in a row.
Samford ranks fifth in the country in average possession length and 10th in adjusted tempo. After an 0-2 start to the season (Purdue, VCU), Samford has won 19 of 20 and is 19-3 and 8-1 in Southern Conference play.
It not only plays fast, it hit shots. It is eighth in the country in effective field goal percentage (KenPom) and third in the country in three-point percentage (NCAA). It has eclipsed 100 points on four occasions this season and scored an unheard of 134 against VMI on Jan. 13.
Four players average in double figures, led by Achor Achor’s 15.8 per game while making 47.5% from three, while A.J. Staton-McCray averages 12.9 per game on 43.8% from three. Jermaine Marshall and Jaden Campbell both average in double figures, too.
Samford has not been to the NCAA tournament since 2000. It will have to go through the likes of UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga (which it lost to in the quarterfinals of the SoCon tournament last year as the No. 2 seed) and Furman, first.
UC Irvine
Heading back out to the west coast for this one, the Anteaters have been here before. UC Irvine was a 13-seed in 2019 and pulled off an upset of Kansas State before losing to Oregon. That team won 31 total games.
This year’s UC Irvine is unlikely to reach that number of wins, but it can get close. It currently sits at 16-6 and 9-1 in Big West play. It beat USC during the non-conference portion of the schedule, too.
It ranks 19th in the country in defense on KenPom, eighth in effective field goal percentage and sixth in opponent tw0-point field goal percentage. It has held opponents to 60 or less points seven times this season.
The offense is a question, it has maxed out at 77 points in conference play and tends to play games around 70. But if it works, it works for Russell Turner’s team.
Pierre Crockrell is one of the best passers around, second in the country in assist rate behind Virginia’s Reece Beekman.
Indiana State
We might be saving the best for last here. Indiana State has been wildly impressive to the point where an at-large bid could be in order if makes a run in the Missouri Valley tournament.
The Sycamores are 19-3 this season and 10-1 in Missouri Valley. It is one of the best shooting teams in the country. Indiana State leads the nation in effective field goal percentage, leads the country in three-point percentage and is fifth in the country in points per game (86.0).
Two of its three losses were to Alabama and Michigan State. Other than that, a loss to Drake is the only thing keeping it from an unblemished league record.
Robbie Avila is one of the most fun players in college basketball and if Indiana State gets to March, he is sure to be a guy who captures the attention of America, wearing specs during games and standing at 6-foot-10. Who doesn’t love that? And he’s the second-leading scorer at 16.1 PPG. He also makes his threes at a 42.3% clip and grabs 7.3 rebounds per game. The only guy above him is Isaiah Swope and his 18.3 points per game.
The Missouri Valley is a three-horse race, with Drake and Bradley as the top competitors. Two of those three might get in either way.
AJ Hoops 