By Aidan Joly
Conference play has mostly begun across the country. After a light New Year’s weekend, Tuesday was a busy night with some interesting results.
That being said, some midweek thoughts about the current landscape and how things have begun to shake out.
Is Memphis actually the best AAC team?
I’ve talked about the white-hot Memphis Tigers on this blog a few times in recent weeks. The theme has been how Penny Hardaway’s squad probably ends up as the second-best team in the American Athletic behind FAU, but could that be the other way around?
Out of teams in the AP poll right now, it’s fair to say that the owner of the worst loss and the second-worst loss is Florida Atlantic. Some eyebrows were raised following the Owls’ loss to Bryant back on Nov. 18, but that was mostly put off as a one-off bad shooting night.
Even more eyebrows were raised following FAU’s loss to Florida Gulf Coast on Saturday. FGCU came into the game 5-9 and only had two wins against Division I competition – a three-point win against FIU and a win against Georgia Southern, which came into that game 0-11. Of course, on the flip side of that FAU did beat Arizona, one of the better wins for any team in the country.
FAU did beat East Carolina by 15 in its conference opener on Tuesday night but the game felt much closer than that as East Carolina led by one at the half and hung around until the closing minutes.
It’s slightly concerning for FAU. Memphis is a really good team that is still getting better, so the AAC might actually run through FedEx Forum.
Colorado State’s statement win
Colorado State made a statement late Tuesday night with a 76-68 win against New Mexico in Fort Collins to open Mountain West play.
The Rams are now 13-1 on the season after beating a good New Mexico team, which was 12-1 coming into the game.
Isaiah Stevens didn’t really come on much until late in the game, but instead Colorado State’s free-flowing offense ran through Patrick Cartier, who finished with a team-high 21 points on 8-12 shooting. Stevens did end up with 18 points, but many of them did not come until the final eight or 10 minutes of the game.
When you watch Colorado State, the Rams are one of those teams that you just feel like is going to go on a run and pull away at some point. That is what happened Tuesday. New Mexico only trailed by three with just over 15 minutes to play, but Colorado State went on an extended 19-5 run that lasted about eight minutes to break the lead open to 17 with seven and a half minutes to go.
Again, this offense is just so free and looks so experienced. Its offense ranks as the 10th-best in the country on KenPom and ranks third in the country in effective field goal percentage. It has options all over the floor, whether it be Stevens, Cartier, Joel Scott or Nique Clifford, takes good shots, and makes them at a high rate. It’ll be great to watch how the Rams look the rest of the way.
Illinois as real Big Ten threat to Purdue?
Illinois clobbered Northwestern in Champaign on Tuesday night, beating the Wildcats 96-66 to start Big Ten play 2-0 and improve to 11-2 overall.
Of course, you have to talk about the play of Marcus Domask, who finished with 32 points on 11-15 from the field, he was fantastic in this one. Justin Harmon had 20 points off the bench, while Quincy Gurrier had 14 points and Coleman Hawkins added in 13.
Similar to Colorado State, Illinois has a great offense with many weapons and takes good shots. The Illini are the 12th-ranked offense in the country on KenPom, just a couple spots below Colorado State.
However, the thing that sticks out the most about Illinois is the defense. Since a 86-79 loss to Arizona back on Dec. 9, Illinois has allowed an average of just 66.75 points per game in four games. It goes without saying that Illinois has won all four of those games (Colgate, Missouri, Fairleigh Dickinson, Northwestern). Illinois ranks 18th in the country in total defense, third in the country in defensive effective field goal percentage and second in two-point field goal percentage. The Illini barely force any turnovers and ranks 345th in the country there, but Brad Underwood’s squad forces teams into bad shots a lot of the time and that’s the way it wins games.
Now, can they be a real jobber to Purdue? The two teams will face each other at Mackey Arena on Friday night. That will be a huge game in telling who the best team in the Big Ten will be moving forward.
Arizona is sliding
Remember when Arizona was number one in the country a few weeks ago, sitting at 8-0 and being in the national title conversation?
The Wildcats are probably still in that title conversation, but maybe a little less so. Since Tommy Lloyd’s team got the top spot it has lost three of five games, including an 18-point loss to Stanford on Sunday to make it 1-1 in Pac-12 play.
Two of those three losses are forgivable as they came to the aforementioned FAU, as well as Purdue. Both of those losses came on neutral floors, too.
The Stanford loss is the most concerning and the Wildcats would have to hope that loss was just a fluke and they will be fine moving forward. It shouldn’t have much of a problem over the next couple weeks. Arizona will face Colorado on Thursday and Utah on Sunday, both at home. It then takes on Washington State on the road on Jan. 13 before home dates against USC and UCLA.
Pitt falls to 0-3 in ACC play
Pittsburgh, a team that has been towards the bottom of the ACC much of the past handful of years but snuck into the NCAA tournament last year after a solid season, finds itself back at the bottom of the ACC once again early in league play.
The Panthers are now 0-3 in league play following a 70-57 home loss against North Carolina on Tuesday night.
What is going on here?
The main culprit is Blake Hinson, who has regressed as the year has gone on. Through Pitt’s first 10 games Hinson scored 20 or more points six times and then had a 19-point performance in Pitt’s 11th game of the season. Since then, he scored five points against Purdue-Fort Wayne, 11 against Syracuse and then another 11 against UNC, bottoming out with a 4-16 shooting performance.
The other issue is that when Hinson struggles, there isn’t anyone around him who can pick up the slack. Ishmael Leggett only scored four points in 32 minutes, Federiko Federiko had two points in 15 minutes and Jorge Diaz Graham did not score in 12 minutes. Carlton Carrington carried Pitt with 20 points and was the only reason the game wasn’t a blowout. Guillermo Diaz Graham and Jaland Lowe were both respectable with 10 points each.
What’s next? Pitt now finds itself in last place in the ACC. It won’t end up in last place when it’s all said and done, but it can surely find itself in the bottom half of the league and not being in the NCAA tournament conversation.
It does have a get-right game against Louisville on Saturday, but the schedule is tricky after that as Pitt plays Duke twice in a span of 11 days, with a game against Syracuse sandwiched between. It then plays Georgia Tech at home on Jan. 23 before a road game at Miami on Jan. 27. If it comes out of that stretch at 2-7 or 3-6 in ACC play, it’s probably game over.