By Aidan Joly
It’s hard to believe but there are only six weeks remaining in the college basketball season and the teams that will play in the NCAA tournament are beginning to take shape.
What is the bracket going to look like? Let’s go conference by conference and take a look.
First, we’ll go over how the outlook works. Going over locks, these are teams that barring total disaster will be in the field. As for ‘should be in,’ those are teams that if the season ended today they would more than likely be in the field, but have not yet locked themselves into the field. As for ‘work to do,’ these are the bubble teams. These teams can solidly put themselves into the field with wins between now and the end of the regular season, but can fall out of the field with some losses.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, SMU
Should be in: Miami
Work to do: Virginia Tech
Credit where credit is due to SMU coach Andy Enfield, who has the Mustangs up over .500 in ACC play and now sit at 15-5 overall after Saturday’s win against Florida State. The signature win here is a victory over North Carolina on Jan. 3, one that puts SMU solidly in the field.
Miami is pretty close to a lock under first year coach Jai Lucas, sitting at 5-2 in the ACC and 16-4 overall, but the Hurricanes do not have a ranked win this year and is 1-3 in Quad 1 games and has a Quad 3 loss.
Virginia Tech is on the outside looking in for now but has opportunities to give itself a better chance in the next couple weeks with a home game against Duke on Jan. 31 and visiting Clemson on Feb. 11. Road games against North Carolina and Virginia await too.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Kansas
Should be in: UCF
Work to do: TCU
Six teams have locked themselves into the field, usual suspects out of the Big 12.
As for a team that’s not a usual suspect, UCF is looking good and seems fairly set to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019. The Knights are 15-4 on the season and has a pair of Quad 1 wins against Texas A&M during the non-conference and beat Kansas at home. It has also done a good job at avoiding bad losses, something the team has struggled with in recent years.
TCU feels squarely on the bubble. The Horned Frogs have a few nice wins but have lost four of their last six games, which certainly does not help their chances. Remember too, the Horned Frogs took a really ugly loss to New Orleans in the season opener, a Quad 4 loss and a real stain on the resume. A few opportunities for signature wins are still ahead on the schedule.
Big East
Locks: UConn, St. John’s, Villanova
Should be in: none
Work to do: Butler, Creighton
First year coach Kevin Willard has Villanova locked into the tournament, somewhere the program has not been since 2022, Jay Wright’s final year with the program. Willard has a revamped Villanova team at 15-5 overall and 6-3 in the Big East.
Creighton has not missed the NCAA tournament since 2019, but it feels like that streak is going to come to an end this year. The Bluejays are 1-5 in Quad 1 games this season and they have a Quad 3 loss to Kansas State during non-conference. Greg McDermott’s squad has certainly taken a step back. Butler is on the outside looking in, as is Seton Hall, who I didn’t mention here. The Pirates started 11-1 but are 3-5 since.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa
Should be in: Wisconsin, Indiana
Work to do: UCLA, Ohio State
Some of the best hoops in the country is being played in the Big Ten this season. Several teams: Michigan, Nebraska, Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue, all feel like very real national title contenders this season. The streak of the league having not won a national championship since 2000 could come to an end.
Shoutout to Iowa and first year coach Ben McCollum, who has things humming in Iowa City and is poised to bring the program back to the tournament for the first time since 2023.
Jake Diebler has yet to make the NCAA tournament during his time at Ohio State and probably needs to this year in order to keep his job for next season. The Buckeyes still lack a signature win – its only Quad 1 win being a road win against Northwestern. It could maybe help its chances with a road win against Wisconsin on Jan. 31. It has another shot at Michigan on Feb. 8.
UCLA recently helped its chances with a massive win against Purdue on Jan. 20. If the Bruins can get another ranked win, it will help their chances.
SEC
Locks: Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Auburn, Georgia
Should be in: Kentucky
Work to do: Texas
The SEC is highly, highly unlikely to return 14 teams to the NCAA tournament like it did last year, but it will still have plenty of representation.
Much has been made of Kentucky’s struggles this season, but the Wildcats still should be comfortably in the tournament despite a lack of wins against the league’s top teams. The Wildcats are 2-5 in games against ranked opponents this season.
Things have been topsy-turvy in Sean Miller’s first year at the helm for Texas and the Longhorns seem about as 50/50 as you can get. It has a win at home against Vanderbilt and beat Alabama on the road but could certainly use a third big-time win to feel good about its chances in March.
Mountain West
Locks: Utah State
Should be in: New Mexico
Work to do: San Diego State
The Mountain West seems poised to be a multi-bid league again. Utah State has had a terrific season and is 16-3 on the season, 7-2 in league play.
Eric Olen has done a nice job in his first season at New Mexico and is 16-4 overall and also 7-2 in league play. The Lobos have a Quad 1 win, a road win against VCU.
San Diego State has a good chance at making the field but is probably not quite there yet. Hurting its chances are an early season loss to Troy, a Quad 3 loss.
The rest
Locks: Gonzaga
Should be in: Saint Louis, St. Mary’s
Work to do: Miami (Ohio), Santa Clara
It feels like there is less Gonzaga talk than normal this year, likely because the Zags are in a better spot than they were last season and will again be a national title contender once the calendar turns to March. The Zags will have an outside chance at being a No. 1 seed once the bracket is out.
Saint Louis is 19-1 on the season in its second season under Josh Schertz and have been blowing out most of their opposition in the Atlantic 10. Its only loss was a one-point loss to Stanford back in November, albeit its only game against a power conference opponent. The Billikens probably can’t take more than one or two losses if they want an at-large bid.
Miami (Ohio) is one of the last three remaining undefeated teams in the nation. Under former Xavier coach Travis Steele the Redhawks are 20-0, 8-0 in the MAC and found themselves in the AP top 25 for the first time this past week. There are still 11 games to go. They did not play anybody of note in the non-conference portion of the year but if they finish the regular season undefeated (or maybe even with only one loss), it will be hard to hear an argument for keeping them out if they lose in the conference tournament. The last time the MAC had two bids was in 1999, when Toledo and Kent State were both in the field. The Golden Flashes and Akron are the top jobbers to Miami (Ohio) right now.
AJ Hoops 