By Aidan Joly
It is one of the stranger coincidences in college basketball – every season since the 2003-04 season, a team ranked in the top 12 in the week 6 AP poll has gone on to win the national championship.
On Monday, the all-important week 6 AP poll dropped. It went as follows:
- 1. Arizona
- 2. Michigan
- 3. Duke
- 4. Iowa State
- 5. UConn
- 6. Purdue
- 7. Houston
- 8. Gonzaga
- 9. Michigan State
- 10. BYU
- 11. Louisville
- 12. Alabama
History tells us that one of those 12 teams will win the national championship in April in Indianapolis. Now, a quick look at each team and how they can be the ones to cut down the nets.
Arizona
The Wildcats are off to an 8-0 start to the season, including wins over four ranked teams in Florida, UCLA, UConn and Auburn.
The key for the Wildcats is to continue to have the balance between youth and experience. Freshman Koa Peat is the team’s best player, to go along with a fellow freshman in double figures in Brayden Burries, but it also has plenty of experience Jaden Bradley, Anthony Dell’orso and Tobe Awaka.
Heading into the tournament the Wildcats will certainly be battle-tested after playing an 18-game Big 12 schedule. That will only help this team come March.
Michigan
A case can certainly be made that the Wolverines are the best team in the country.
Michigan has an absolutely explosive offense that has been unstoppable since Players Era, winning each game by at least 30 points, and then beating Rutgers by 41 in its conference opener last weekend. That’s not even talking about the defense either, which is the No. 1 KenPom defense in the country.
Yaxel Lendeborg has become one of the best players in the country and has a fantastic cast in Morez Johnson, Roddy Gayle, Trey McKenney and Aday Mara.
The Big Ten has not won a national championship since 2000. The Wolverines will have a great chance to be the ones to end that drought.
Duke
The Blue Devils are 10-0 on the season and have four wins against teams that were ranked at the time of the game: Kansas, Arkansas, Florida and Michigan State.
The key for Duke has been defense. It ranks No. 3 in the nation in KenPom in that category and is the top team in the country in terms of opponent effective field goal percentage. Point is, Duke doesn’t allow its opponents to take many good shots.
Freshman Cameron Boozer feels like not only the best freshman in the country but the best player in the country, while Isaiah Evans, Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster have all had great games. The key for Duke will to get more strong performances from that cast of characters, and doing so consistently.
Iowa State
The Cyclones are another team that went 3-0 at Players Era and is coming off its most impressive win of the season, an 81-58 drubbing of then-No. 1 Purdue in a true road game.
It is top five in the country in both offense and defense, and No. 2 in the country in effective field goal percentage. Milan Momcilovic, Justin Jefferson, Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Traore all average more than 12 points per game.
Leaning into its experience is the way for the Cyclones to win the national title. Traore is a freshman, but the other three have all played a ton of college basketball, much of it in Ames in TJ Otzelberger’s system.
Much like Arizona, it will be battle-tested in the Big 12 and ready for a deep postseason run.
UConn
Last season, by UConn standards, was a down season.
The Huskies are back this year and are off to an 8-1 start to the season with wins over BYU, Illinois and Kansas, its only blemish coming from a home loss to Arizona.
Alex Karaban and Jaylin Stewart are the only guys still around from at least the 2024 national title team. The two of them take a back seat to guys like Tarris Reed and Silas DeMary, who have the largest roles on the team. Karaban is still in double figures though.
Dan Hurley knows how to build a championship-winning roster. He has done it twice now. All of the guys on this team know their role, from Reed and DeMary, to Solo Ball, to a role guy like Stewart. Playing into the roles and strengths of the roster will be the way for the Huskies to win a third title in four years.
Purdue
The Boilermakers were the No. 1 team in the AP poll up until last week until the aforementioned Iowa State had something to say about it.
Despite the loss, Purdue has the No. 1 KenPom offense in the country ran by Braden Smith, who has a strong argument for the best point guard in the country, and Trey Kaufmann-Renn, who is potentially the best No. 2 guy in the country. Fletcher Loyer and Oscar Cluff have also been very, very important.
The Boilermakers have the best point guard in the country. It is the most important position on the floor. Let him do what he needs to do, and he has a very real shot at guiding this team to a title.
Houston
The Cougars were a couple bounces away from winning a national championship last year and certainly have a great chance at finishing the climb to the top of the mountain this year.
Houston is 8-1 on the season, its only blemish coming against Tennessee during Players Era in a game where somebody had to lose.
Its offense does leave a little something to be desired and has likely taken a little bit of a step back as compared to last season. Still, Houston teams lean into its defenses and that is something the Cougars should continue to do, led by Milos Uzan, to win the title. Getting a little better on offense wouldn’t hurt though.
Gonzaga
The Zags are easily a top-10 team in the country this season following what would be considered a down year last year where it was an 8-seed in the tournament and ended its streak of going to the second weekend.
Which makes Michigan’s 40-point win over the Zags during Players Era that much more impressive. Gonzaga does have wins over Alabama and Kentucky, both on neutrals.
Gonzaga has the horses to make a deep run in March with the likes of Braden Huff, Graham Ike and Tyon-Grant Foster.
It doesn’t feel like the team that lost to Michigan is the real Gonzaga, but rather the team that beat Kentucky by 35. But, it will have to get rid of those stinker performances. Hopefully this was the only one.
Michigan State
Michigan State is 8-1 on the season, its only loss coming to Duke.
It feels like a similar story with the Spartans as it is with Houston, a very good defense and that overall this team would be even better if it improves its offense. National championship good.
Jaxon Kohler, Jeremiah Fears, Coen Carr and Carson Cooper all provide plenty of offense for Tom Izzo’s squad. It will come down to role guys such as Cam Ward and Kur Teng being more consistent. Teng is certainly capable as he had 15 against Kentucky in the Champions Classic.
BYU
The Cougars are down 21 at the half to Clemson at the half at Madison Square Garden as I type this, but perhaps this game is just a blip in the radar for the Cougars.
AJ Dybantsa came into this year as the top freshman recruit in the country for second-year coach Kevin Young. Richie Saunders and Robert Wright III are also pro-style players.
Young runs a pro-style offense at BYU. Sometimes teams are not familiar with it coming into games. If BYU can continue to lean into Young’s system and confuse teams with a pro-style offense, it can win a lot of games and make a deep run in March.
Louisville
How about this turnaround for the Cardinals? After being a laughingstock under Kenny Payne, second-year coach Pat Kelsey has turned the Cardinals into one of the top programs in the country again.
The Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the country led by the likes of Ryan Conwell, Mikel Brown Jr. and Isaac McKneely. The offense is good enough to win a national title.
The problem here is the defense. It let up 88 points to Kentucky, 81 to Ohio and 78 to Indiana. However, it won all of those games. Its one loss was 89-80 to Arkansas.
If you can shoot the lights out, fine. But a defense that lets up a lot of points, if you have a bad shooting night, it is the end of your season.
Alabama
The Tide are 7-2 on the season, with notable wins against St. John’s, Illinois and Clemson with losses to Purdue and Gonzaga.
It is another pro-style offense that Nate Oats runs at Alabama. That means speed and a lot of threes. Labaron Philon, Aden Holloway and Jalil Bethea have all been up to the task and have been great.
The defense has left a bit to be desired. It has to clean it up in that regard. Another key here will be simply finishing the job. Under Oats the Tide make deep tournament runs every year but have yet to win a title. They have the chance to do it this year.
AJ Hoops 