By Aidan Joly
Between Thursday and Sunday, 48 teams had their dreams of winning a national championship dashed, leaving just 16 left in the tournament.
Overall, it’s been a chalky tournament. All of the 1-seeds, three 2-seeds, two 3-seeds and three 4-seeds remain. Only one double digit seed is left, and that is 10-seed Arkansas.
That means we have a ton of high quality teams still left in the tournament. Let’s rank the 16 of them.
1: Duke
The Blue Devils have not had a problem in either of their tournament games so far, with a 93-49 win against Mount St. Mary’s in the first round and followed it up on Sunday with a 89-66 win against Baylor to advance.
Right now, Duke should be the favorite to win the national championship. They have been great against each opponent. Tyrese Proctor has been the best player on the floor in both games and was particularly great in the second round game, scoring 25 points on 9-10 from the field. Cooper Flagg had 14 points in the first game and 18 in the second as he returns from injury.
Final Four seems like the absolute bare minimum for what the Blue Devils will do. They see Arizona on Thursday night.
2: Florida
The Gators survived an outstanding performance from two-time defending national champion UConn on Sunday, what ended up being a 77-75 win. It came after an easy win against Norfolk State in the first round.
Alijah Martin was huge in the win for the Gators, but it was Walter Clayton’s shot making late in the game, headlined by a three with 1:07 to go that put Florida up six. He had 23 in the win.
The three-headed trio of Martin, Clayton and Will Richard is very, very good. In the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2017, Florida will face Maryland on Thursday night in San Francisco.
3: Houston
Another team that survived a charge from a lower seed in the second round, Houston advances to the Sweet 16 after an 81-76 win against Gonzaga on Saturday.
Defense has been the reason why this team is so good, but its offense can’t be overlooked. LJ Cryer had 30 points in the win against Gonzaga, while J’Wan Roberts had 18 and hit big shots the whole way.
The Cougars, in the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight year, will need its defense to step up in a big way against Purdue on Friday night, one of the best offenses in the country. It will be a de facto road game Houston as well, being played in Indianapolis just an hour away from Purdue’s campus.
4: Auburn
The Tigers looked to be on the ropes a little bit in its second round game against Creighton, but a pair of 10-0 runs in the second half allowed them to put away the Bluejays by 12.
Tahaad Pettiford was great off the bench, scoring 23 points on 7-14 from the field, while Chad Baker-Mazara had 17 and Denver Jones had 15. Johni Broome only had eight, but he finished with 12 rebounds.
The Tigers have dominated on the boards in each of their first two games, out-rebounding their opponents 75-56 through the first two games.
The next game is a huge test though. The Tigers will face Michigan and their pair of seven-footers, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, on Friday night in Atlanta.
5: Tennessee
The Vols have looked good on both ends of the floor in the second round win against UCLA, leading by as many as 19 and ended up beating the Bruins 67-58.
The defense stepped up as UCLA only shot 37% from the field, including just 7-23 from three. The Vols shot 50% from three. Chaz Lanier was great, with 20 points, while Zakai Zeigler had 15.
Tennessee will face SEC conference-mate Kentucky on Friday in Indianapolis. The Wildcats swept the Vols in two meetings this season, winning 78-73 in Knoxville on Jan. 28 and 75-64 on Feb. 11 in Lexington. Now, they meet with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line.
6: Texas Tech
Texas Tech never truly put 14-seed UNC Wilmington away until the closing minutes of Thursday’s first round game, winning by 10. It then turned away 11-seed Drake in the second round 77-64.
The Red Raiders have gotten to this point thanks to two great performances from JT Toppin, who is shooting 17-21 from the field in this tournament. Darrion Williams had 28 points in the second round win.
More good news is coming for the Red Raiders: they have a shot at getting Chance McMillan back, who hasn’t played since the Big 12 quarterfinals, and they get to play another double digit seed. Texas Tech will face 10-seed Arkansas in San Francisco on Thursday.
7: Alabama
Alabama could have been sent packing early. The Tide trailed 15-seed Robert Morris by one with seven minutes to go in Friday’s first round game before coach Nate Oats had to use a “break glass in case of emergency” move in bringing Grant Nelson in for the final seven minutes. Ultimately, Alabama won by nine.
The Tide looked much better on Sunday against Saint Mary’s, never letting the Gaels get close and winning by 14.
Having Nelson healthy is a welcome addition for an offense that already has a ton of guys. The Tide will play BYU on Thursday in Newark. It’s a game between two top-10 offenses in the country, so it should be a shootout. First to 90 wins?
8: Michigan State
I probably have Michigan State ranked a little lower than I should, but alas.
The Spartans had some trouble with New Mexico in the second round on Sunday night, but escaped with a 71-63 win. It got the win while having a dud from Jase Richardson, who shot just 1-10 from the field and finished with six points, his lowest point total in a month and a half.
Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman picked up the slack, finishing with 16 and 14 points respectively.
The Spartans will face Ole Miss in the Sweet 16 on Friday in Atlanta. The Rebels are a team that defends the three-point line very well, something the Spartans will surely have to game plan for.
9: Maryland
Maryland has lost on a buzzer beater three times this season.
On Sunday night the Terps finally came out on the right end of one, with Deriq Queen hitting a floater at the horn to give his team a 72-71 win against 11-seed Colorado State. A cool story: the hometown kid from Baltimore, a freshman, hitting a buzzer beater in the NCAA tournament. It’s also the only buzzer beater of the tournament so far.
Going from Seattle to San Francisco means Maryland is likely staying on the west coast for the week. Will that give it an edge against Florida? We shall see. I still like them as a sleeper Final Four team. It just had some March Magic.
10: Kentucky
How about Mark Pope’s first season in Lexington? It’s hard to believe it has been this long, but Kentucky is in the second weekend of the tournament for the first time since 2019.
It got here by having no problem with 14-seed Troy in the first round, and then beating Illinois on Sunday 84-75. The Wildcats led by five at the break and then went on a 10-0 run to start the second half, opening the lead up to 15. That essentially put the game away as Illinois was only able to cut it to six in the final two minutes.
Koby Brea had 23 in the win against Illinois on 10-16 from the field, while Lamont Butler had 14 on 4-5 from the field.
Going back to having faced Tennessee twice in the regular season and winning both matchups, it should go into this one feeling confident it can do it again.
11: Arizona
Arizona started its second round game on Sunday night in a poor fashion by trailing 19-4, but clawed its way back to beat to lead Oregon at the half by four and eventually won 87-83 in a game that had some old Pac-12 flavor.
It had no problem with Akron in the first round in an impressive 93-65 rout.
Caleb Love was good Caleb Love on Sunday, scoring 29 points on 10-18 from the field while adding on nine rebounds.
Love, ever inconsistent, will need to have a repeat performance if the Wildcats want to have a chance against Duke on Thursday night. We’ll see how it goes.
12: Purdue
The Boilermakers have played a pair of mid-majors so far. After High Point hung tough for the majority of Thursday’s first round game Purdue pulled away for a 75-63 win. After that, it took care of business by beating McNeese 76-62 on Saturday, a game that wasn’t even as close as the score indicated.
Trey Kaufman-Renn was terrific in the second round win, scoring 22 points and grabbing 15 rebounds. He had 21 and 8 against High Point.
The Boilermakers’ forwards will certainly have their work cut out for them on Friday night against a super physical Houston team. On top of that, the shooters will need to be in excellent form if they want to pull off the upset.
13: Michigan
The Wolverines survived a test in the first round by pulling out a win against UC San Diego, and then erased a 10-point deficit to beat Texas A&M in the second round on Saturday.
The two forwards, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, have been as advertised in the tournament so far. Goldin had 23 points and 12 rebounds in the win against Texas A&M, while Wolf has grabbed 20 rebounds for the tournament so far. In the second round win it was Roddy Gayle who came up huge, scoring 26 points on 7-14 from the field.
The Wolverines, still going in a remarkable turnaround in year one under Dusty May after an 8-24 campaign last year, will have their work cut out for them against Auburn as they try to keep their season alive.
14: Ole Miss
The Rebels were awesome on offense in the second-round win against Iowa State on Sunday, shooting 58.2% from the field, including 57.9% from three, in a 91-78 win. Sean Pedulla had 20 points, while Jaemyn Brakefield had 19 off the bench. Malik Dia had 18, forming an excellent trio.
Ole Miss is very good at taking care of the basketball, which is a key factor in allowing them to get to this point. It only had eight turnovers in Sunday’s win.
This is semi-uncharted territory for the program. It has only been to the Sweet 16 once in program history, back in 2001, and has never gotten further than the Sweet 16. It faces Michigan State on Friday in Atlanta. If they win, it could very well set up a fourth(!) matchup against Auburn this season.
15: BYU
Hot shooting has allowed the Cougars to this point. In a 91-89 win against 3-seed Wisconsin on Saturday night they shot 46% from three, making 12 of them.
BYU is certainly a team getting hot at the right time, having won 11 of its past 12 games. Richie Saunders has been a joy to watch so far in this tournament.
This marks the first time BYU has been to the Sweet 16 since 2011, when Jimmer Fredette was in Provo. A lot of credit goes to Kevin Young and the direction he has this program going. It’ll try to keep going against Alabama.
16: Arkansas
The only double digit seed remaining. John Calipari’s Razorbacks got an ugly upset win against St. John’s on Saturday. The teams shot a combined 4-41 from behind the three-point line. Zvonimir Ivicic fouled out in just 10 minutes of action.
Despite that, Arkansas frustrated St. John’s and held Big East player of the year RJ Luis to 3-17 from the field – he was controversially benched with just under five minutes to go.
On the morning of Feb. 1, Arkansas was 1-6 in SEC play, 12-8 overall and was headed into Rupp Arena in Calipari’s return to Lexington. It won that game. Including that win, Arkansas went 7-4 in SEC play the rest of the year and is 10-5 since.
Now, the Razorbacks head from Providence to San Francisco to face Texas Tech.
AJ Hoops 