By Aidan Joly
The play-in games for the NCAA tournament begin on Tuesday night, and then the full bracket begins on Thursday.
By April 7, one of the 68 teams will cut down the nets in San Antonio. Who could end up being that team, and how we will get there?
Let’s get into all of it, going region by region.
South Region
No. 1 seed Auburn is easily the class of this quadrant of the bracket as well as potentially the entire tournament. The Tigers finished the regular season with a record of 28-5, but have oddly lost three of their past four games, dropping each of the last two regular season games and then losing in the semifinals of the SEC tournament.
Still, Auburn should be the favorite to get out of this region and go to the Final Four. Johni Broome, Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly and sensational freshman Tahaad Pettiford is a group that you can put up against just about anyone in the nation.
The top jobbers to the Tigers in this region will be 2-seed Michigan State and 3-seed Iowa State. Michigan State was the class of the Big Ten this season and has won 27 games behind some fantastic guard play from Jaden Akins, Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman. For Iowa State, the Cyclones have a very good seed but could see trouble as early as the second round. Coach TJ Otzelberger said right after the bracket announcement that second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert will not play in the tournament due to a nagging groin injury. If the higher seeds win, Iowa State will be forced to play a very solid Ole Miss team in the second round, a team that has seen a lot of success in year two under coach Chris Beard. Personally, I like Ole Miss to get to the Sweet 16 in this region.
This is a bracket where a double digit team could get to the Sweet 16, and that team is the 12-seed, UC San Diego. The Tritons are in the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history, went 30-4 and cruised through the Big West tournament. UC San Diego is rightfully so the trendy upset pick in the first round, namely due to them being one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, and will be going up against 5-seed Michigan, a team that has struggled with taking care of the ball all season. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones and Tyler McGhie are getting ready to be household names later this week.
Thursday’s action gets going with the 8/9 matchup in this region, that being Louisville taking on Creighton. Louisville is back in the tournament for the first time since 2019 in year one under coach Pat Kelsey. Louisville went 27-7 overall, 18-2 in ACC play and reached the conference title game. It certainly feels under-seeded as an 8-seed, but only has to travel less than 100 miles to play in Lexington, so they will be essentially playing home games to begin.
The 7/10 matchup here is Marquette and New Mexico, an intriguing matchup that feels like it could go either way. It will feature a fantastic guard matchup between Marquette’s Kam Jones and New Mexico’s Donovan Dent, who has become one of the premier non-Power 5 players in the nation.
Also North Carolina is in this region as a team heading to Dayton. Quite simply, the Tar Heels should not be here and was a laughable decision by the selection committee, especially when there were several deserving teams ahead of them. West Virginia is the most glaring NCAA tournament omission in several years. I’d have put Indiana and Boise State ahead of the Tar Heels as well. None made it.
I expect Auburn to make it to the Elite Eight at the very least, but the second team feels fairly wide open as to who they could face. There are a numbers of candidates to do it.
West Region
Moving onto the bottom left quadrant of the bracket, this group is headlined by Florida, who made a late push to earn a No. 1 seed and won the SEC, a league that is sending a new NCAA tournament record 14 teams to the tournament.
The Gators have been a revelation all season, going from an under-the-radar-could-be-sneaky-good team to a squad that is a trendy pick to win the national championship. It went 30-4 behind the group of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard, and recently got back Micah Handlogten in a role player status after missing much of the season due to injury.
Right in their path to the second weekend though, is two-time defending national champion UConn. The Huskies have taken a considerable step back this season and are an 8-seed after going 14-6 in Big East play and 23-10 overall, making a nice recovery after a disastrous Thanksgiving week at the Maui Invitational, where it went 0-3 and raised serious questions about how good the team would be. News flash: still pretty good. Alex Karaban, Hassan Diarra and Samson Johnson are the only notable players from last year still wearing a Husky jersey, but Dan Hurley knows how to win in March. However, Florida is a tall task, and it would even have to get past Oklahoma to get there.
A fellow Big East team is one of the top teams in this region. St. John’s, the 2-seed in the West, is back in the tournament for the first time since 2019 and has its highest seed since 2000. Coincidentally, this was the most recent time St. John’s won a game in the tournament. It will certainly have a great shot, going up against 15-seed Omaha in the first round. Omaha is in the tournament for the first time ever.
It was a masterful job done by Rick Pitino, in his second season with the Red Storm, going 18-2 in the Big East and 30-4 overall, winning the Big East tournament without serious challenge. RJ Luis Jr., Zuby Ejiofor, Kadary Richmond and Deivon Smith have all been great for the Johnnies. They have a real chance to win this region and get to the Final Four.
In the other first round game of their pod you’ll find a matchup between legendary head coaches whose teams have struggled this year, in Bill Self’s Kansas team going up against John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks. Kansas has not been Kansas all season after starting the season as preseason No. 1 in the nation, but it just has not come to fruition. Arkansas looked dead in the water a few weeks ago, but winning four of its last five regular season games and winning a SEC tournament game pushed them into the field.
A Final Four sleeper is the No. 4 seed in this region, Maryland. The Terrapins have a great group of players in Deriq Queen, Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice and Julian Reese and has a shot to win at least two games. However, standing in their way is Memphis, although I think they are going to lose, or Colorado State, the 12-seed in this region. The Rams have playing as well as anybody in the country right now but still needed to win the Mountain West tournament to get a bid, which they did. Nique Clifford is a fantastic guard and he should give Memphis fits. However, the first round game does feel like one where PJ Haggerty scores 30 to lead Memphis to a win. We’ll see.
The 6/11 game here is intriguing as well, with Missouri going up against Drake. After a miserable 0-18 season last year Dennis Gates led Missouri to a 10-8 SEC record this season after re-tooling in the portal. Mark Mitchell and Caleb Grill have led Mizzou to a good season. However, Drake is a very tough draw. First-year coach Ben McCollum went 30-3 with his group of former Division II players, led by Bennett Stirtz, Daniel Abreu, Tavion Banks and Mitch Mascari. Heading into the season it was going to be fascinating to follow how this team did, and they passed every single test. Now, we see if they can win a tournament game.
This feels like a region where almost anyone could make a run. This didn’t even mention 3-seed Texas Tech, which also has a ton of tools. This is a very deep, and very good, region where many teams can win.
East Region
Moving onto the top right quadrant of the bracket to the East Region, the top seed in this corner is Duke. The Blue Devils had a dominant season in the ACC, going 31-3 overall and 19-1 in league play, cruising through and winning the ACC tournament along with that.
The main story right now is around freshman phenom Cooper Flagg. He suffered an ankle injury in Duke’s ACC quarterfinal game last week and was out for the remainder of the tournament. However, Flagg is expected to return for Duke’s opening round game against either American or Mount St. Mary’s on Friday. Mississippi State or Baylor will await Duke in the second round.
Duke certainly has the pieces to win a national championship, something the program now has not done in a decade. The top competition to the Blue Devils will be Alabama. The Tide made the Final Four for the first time in program history last season and arguably have a better team this year, behind one of the best players in the country in Mark Sears, topping the group off with Grant Nelson and Aden Holloway.
The rest of the region feels relatively weak. Wisconsin is a good team but I don’t expect the Badgers to make it to the Elite Eight. Arizona could make a run if Caleb Love and Jaden Bradley can go on a run – Love has plenty of tournament experience from his time with the Wildcats as well as North Carolina.
An intriguing team in this region is the No. 11 team, that being VCU. The Rams won the Atlantic 10 and went 28-6 this season, including 15-3 in league play. Max Shulga and Jordan Bamisile are an intriguing duo to keep an eye on. They will have their hands full in the first round with BYU, though. But, if the Rams can make it past the first round, they will have a real shot at making the Sweet 16.
Maybe the most interesting matchup in this quadrant is the 7/10 game, that being No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s against the No. 19 seed in Vanderbilt. Saint Mary’s had looked good all season and beat Gonzaga twice in the regular season, but looked bad in the WCC championship game, a game they it lost by seven, but it felt like a lot more. On the other side of the matchup is Vanderbilt, which has had a resurgent season in coach Mark Byington’s first season at the helm. It returns to the tournament for the first time since 2017. The Commodores shoot the ball well and take care of the basketball.
This region is certainly one that is very top heavy. It seems like a crash course for Duke and Alabama to meet in the Elite Eight, but that’s why they play the games. We’ll see. Personally, I have Duke not only winning this region, but also cutting down the nets in San Antonio.
Midwest Region
We head down to the bottom right quadrant in the bracket for the final region to discuss.
Houston is the top seed in the region. The Cougars have had a spectacular season, going 30-4 and 19-1 in Big 12 play, winning the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City last week. The group of LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, J’Wan Roberts and Milos Uzan is so, so good.
Tennessee is the No. 2 seed in the region in another top SEC team that has a chance at making a run for the national title. Chaz Lanier is one of the best guards in the country and should have some great games in the tournament.
A team that I really have my eye on here is the No. 8 seed, that being Gonzaga. The Zags are easily the most under-seeded team in the entire tournament, but it’s because of their results – the Bulldogs were not as dominant in the WCC as they have been in previous years. The predictive metrics still love Mark Few’s squad – it is a top 10 KenPom team and ranks No. 11 in BartTorvik. Graham Ike, Nolan Hickman and Khalif Battle all have plenty of NCAA tournament experience. The Zags will play Georgia in the first round before what would end up being a top-10 matchup in the second round should they advance. Houston is the 1-seed that gets the tough draw. If there’s a 1-seed that goes down in the first weekend, it’ll be Gonzaga beating Houston. Gonzaga has made the second weekend of the tournament nine years in a row. Will that streak continue?
There are two real upset potential games in the first round. In the 5/12 game you have a mid-major darling in McNeese facing Clemson. McNeese went 19-1 in Southland play and 27-6 overall as coach Will Wade rebuilds his coaching career. The Cowboys were a sexy upset pick last season but lost in the first round. This year, they are back in the tournament and looking to make the next step.
The other is in the 4/13 game between Purdue and High Point. It’s very fair to say that Purdue has taken a step back in the post-Zach Edey era after making the national title game a year ago. Still, the Boilermakers boast one of the best point guards in the country in Braden Smith. High Point, in the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history after winning the Big South, will have to have a game plan for him in order to have a shot.
A third double digit seed that could win a game – should it get through the First Four game, is Xavier. The Musketeers made a late charge into the field by winning seven in a row to close out the regular season and made it as one of the last four teams in. After missing all of last year to injury, Zach Freemantle has had a very good season. Xavier will play Texas in Dayton on Wednesday night for the right to play Illinois, a team that has played .5oo basketball in the past month and are ripe to be picked off.
UCLA and Utah State will be the 7/10 matchup here. The Bruins have had a solid season in their first year in the Big Ten, going 13-7, while Utah State dominated the early parts of the season before falling off a bit, finishing 26-7 and 15-5 in Mountain West play in Jerrod Calhoun’s first year on the job – and could end up being his last (more on that probably early next week). Ian Martinez is a fantastic player who could gain even more attention should the Aggies advance.
Overall, there are a bunch of teams in this region that can be the one to get out of it. I do think Houston can get picked off early. That being said, I’ll go with Tennessee to win it.
All in all, this is the best week of the season and what we have spent the last four-plus months getting ready for. Enjoy it!
AJ Hoops 