By Aidan Joly
We are officially in the final week of the regular season. What does the bracket look like?
In the second edition of the year, I have locked 37 teams into the field, put five teams in the “should be in” category and have put 14 teams in the “work to do” category, putting them on the bubble to be included in the field.
There’s a clear divide between teams that are locked in and teams that have more to do, with only five teams squarely in the middle of that. That all being said, let’s get into it.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Clemson, Louisville
Should be in: none
Work to do: North Carolina, Wake Forest, SMU
The ACC could see as few as three bids in what has been a really down year. Duke is in contention for the No. 1 overall seed, while Clemson and Louisville have done more than enough to be in the field.
North Carolina has been a point of contention for the bubble all season long. The Tar Heels are still squarely on it. UNC is 12-6 in the league and 19-11 overall. However, 13 of those wins are either Q3 or Q4, and it has an ugly 1-10 record in Quad 1 wins. No team with a record that bad in Quad 1 has ever received an at-large in seven years of the quadrant system. It is No. 42 in the NET.
It can certainly tip the scales in their favor with a win over Duke in the regular season finale on Saturday or by making a deep run in the ACC tournament next week, which they will certainly have a shot at doing, but right now those things are tough to see.
Wake Forest pretty much ended its chances with a loss to Duke on Monday night. SMU still has something of a chance, but it will have to go on a miracle run in the ACC tournament with wins against high quality opponents.
Big 12
Locks: Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, Kansas, BYU
Should be in: Baylor, West Virginia
Work to do: Cincinnati
The locks here speak for themselves, all of them will be in the field and seeded throughout the field.
Baylor doesn’t have the highest odds in the world, but I would put them in the field. The Bears are No. 32 in the NET and have won five Quad 1 games, putting them in the range of a 9 seed.
West Virginia is pretty close to a bid and can probably lock that up by winning another game or two before Selection Sunday. It has a similar resume to Baylor with the same overall record and similar in conference – Baylor is 9-9, West Virginia is 8-10. The Mountaineers should be included.
Cincinnati still has a chance despite a 7-11 record in the league and 17-12 overall record, but similar to North Carolina that is a team that is just 1-10 in Quad 1 games, but to be fair is 9-2 in Quad 2 games, taking care of business for the most part. A strong 10-1 non-conference schedule with wins against Dayton and Xavier is helping.
Big East
Locks: St. John’s, Creighton, Marquette, UConn
Should be in: none
Work to do: Xavier
How about St. John’s? Rick Pitino’s team clinched a Big East regular season championship and the top seed in the league tournament over the weekend. The Red Storm are 17-2 in the league and 26-4 overall.
Marquette, Creighton and the two-time defending champions UConn will all be in the field too.
Every year, there is always a team or two that towards the end of the season you look up and they have a NCAA tournament resume just by winning the games they need to win. This year, that team is Xavier.
The Musketeers are in fact only 1-9 in Quad 1 games, but only has one loss outside of Quad 1, that being a Quad 2 loss to Georgetown on Jan. 3. Overall though, Xavier is 11-7 in the league and 19-10 overall. It has winnable games to close the regular season, on the road against Butler on Wednesday and home against Providence on Saturday.
It does probably need to win both of those games, but both of them are certainly games they can win. If they can win both, and then likely a game in the Big East tournament, Sean Miller’s squad will find themselves in the field.
It’s also worth noting that the selection committee caught a lot of heat for only including three Big East teams in the field last year when many thought more were deserving, so I can see them giving a Big East team the benefit of the doubt.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Illinois, Michigan, UCLA, Oregon
Should be in: none
Work to do: Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska
Indiana has been under intense scrutiny all season long. The Hoosiers looked dead in the water for much of the season, leading to coach Mike Woodson announcing he would retire at the end of the season, amid calls for his job.
Since the announcement, Indiana has suddenly flourished. Since then the Hoosiers are 4-2, including a pair of massive wins against Michigan State and Purdue that have put them right back in the conversation.
Indiana would certainly have to head to Dayton for a play-in game should it end up making the field. But it has a chance to be there. It plays Oregon on Tuesday before a big game against Ohio State on Saturday in the regular season finale.
Speaking of the Buckeyes, they are in the bubble conversation too. They are No. 36 in the NET and have five Quad 1 wins, but OSU has four Quad 2 losses. They are a team that will need some wins between now and Selection Sunday to start feeling comfortable. Still, they won’t have an easy two weeks.
Nebraska still has a chance, but I’m not really counting on them making it.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia
Should be in: none
Work to do: Arkansas, Oklahoma
Georgia locked themselves into the field with a win against Texas over the weekend, a loss that certainly put the Longhorns on the outside of even being on the bubble. A NCAA tournament miss could spell the end of Rodney Terry’s tenure in Austin.
Arkansas had a little momentum going in recent weeks, but had a complete n0-show on Saturday against South Carolina, who came into the game 1-14 in league play. The Razorbacks lost by 19 and the game wasn’t even that close. They did not look like anything close to a tournament team in that loss.
Still, you have to consider the four wins in Quad 1 games and South Carolina is only a Quad 2 loss, but it’s still a 19-point loss to the worst team in the conference. It has to be considered.
Oklahoma still has a little bit of a chance, but is certainly on the outside looking in.
Mountain West
Locks: New Mexico, Utah State
Should be in: San Diego State
Work to do: Boise State
New Mexico and Utah State will both be formidable opponents in the first round of the tournament. San Diego State looks good and if the season ended today, the Aztecs would be in, but another win or two to close the regular season – they play at UNLV on Tuesday and home against Nevada on Saturday – will make them feel good.
Boise State has all of the sudden put themselves in the conversation. It has won four straight since a loss to San Diego State on Feb. 15, beating both New Mexico and Utah State as part of that streak. They have also won eight of the last nine games.
It has three Quad 1 wins to boot, but does own a pair of Quad 3 losses, which were to Boston College and Washington State during the n0n-conference.
Still, the Broncos will be a team sweating it out until Selection Sunday. It goes at Air Force on Tuesday before hosting Colorado State on Friday before the league tournament.
The rest
Locks: Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Memphis
Should be in: VCU, UC San Diego
Work to do: Drake, UC Irvine, North Texas
VCU has been able to put together an at-large resume, but only has one Quad 1 win, but only had two opportunities to get one. It is 6-3 in Quad 2, but does have a bad Quad 4 loss to Seton Hall. Still, as long as it makes probably the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 tournament, it should be included in the field.
The committee tends to give the nod to mediocre power conference teams over great mid-major teams, but UC San Diego could be an exception. The Tritons are now up to 16-2 in the league and 26-4 overall. They have UC Irvine to worry about in the league tournament.
Drake is a very, very good team, but likely has to make the Missouri Valley title game to feel alright. Despite a 27-3 overall record, it has a real shot at being left out if it doesn’t win the AAC. Same goes for the aforementioned UC Irvine.
North Texas is a good team and has a shot at being a bid stealer by winning the American Athletic tournament.
AJ Hoops 