By Aidan Joly
It’s all of the sudden the last full month of the college basketball season.
Several teams across the country have begun to lock themselves into the field with their performances so far this season, some are not quite there yet but look good so far, and some more have some more work to do.
Let’s break it down. Heading into Monday’s games I have locked 25 teams into the field, have 12 teams designated as “should be in,” while I have put 19 teams in “work to do.”
The 25 locks are teams I feel like will for sure be in the tournament barring any extreme circumstances. “Should be in” encompasses teams that if the season ended today they would be in the field and have a chance to lock into the field over the next few weeks, but could also drop into the “work to do” category if they struggle.
The “work to do” category is pretty simple. It’s the bubble teams that can really go either way at this point. When you look at these teams, you can argue either way whether they should be in the field or not.
I did amend my formula slightly from last year to give teams the benefit of the doubt when it comes to moving up categories, but this is still not an exact science. Selection Sunday is still a month and a half away.
Using the format of going conference by conference, let’s get into it.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Louisville, Clemson
Should be in: Pitt
Work to do: North Carolina, SMU, Wake Forest
I’ve locked three teams from the ACC into the field so far. Duke is self-explanatory as a top-two team in the country and will surely be on the 1 seed line.
Louisville and Clemson have both had very good seasons and sit at the top of the ACC behind the Blue Devils. Louisville is 4-5 in Quad 1 games and only has one loss outside of Quad 1, and its schedule is fairly easy the rest of the way, with five of its remaining nine regular season games in Quad 3 or 4. Clemson’s schedule is a little tougher, but they have a better record than the Cardinals.
Pitt and North Carolina have interesting cases. Pitt has not looked good in the past few weeks and is only 1-6 in Quad 1 games, but is 13-1 in its other games, including a win over North Carolina that feels big in terms of tipping the scales in the Panthers’ direction. I have them in the field for now. UNC is a little more murky. It is 1-9 in Quad 1 games and does not have a signature win and just got blown out by Duke. It is also 45 in the NET, compared to Pitt’s 35. A 6-5 league record and 13-10 overall isn’t good on paper, either.
SMU and Wake Forest still have outside chances, so we’ll leave them on for now.
Big 12
Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Arizona
Should be in: BYU, Baylor, West Virginia
Work to do: UCF, Arizona State
I’ve locked in five teams so far from the second best league in college basketball. All of these teams will have good seeds, despite their varying levels of winning against each other.
I was close to locking BYU into the field, but I decided not to considering its three Quad 2 losses, one of which was to lowly Providence during the non-conference portion of the season. If it can win one of its next two or two of its next three, all Quad 1 games, I would feel much more comfortable doing it.
Baylor and West Virginia are under similar circumstances of being very close to locked in, but I’m not going to do it yet. West Virginia has struggled as of late, having lost five of eight. But it snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday by beating Cincinnati.
The odds for UCF and Arizona State are low, but we’ll keep them on the board for now.
Big East
Locks: Marquette, St. John’s, Creighton
Should be in: UConn
Work to do: Xavier
The three locks will be in the tournament. Marquette and St. John’s both project as being seeded on the 4 line or better.
Creighton and UConn are probably more on similar lines when it comes to seeding, the 6 or 7 line, but I decided to give the edge to Creighton. Realistically, UConn will be in, but if it somehow takes a bunch of bad losses in the next few weeks things could get interesting. But as long as the Huskies take care of business, it will be in the lock category in short order.
Xavier is on the outside looking in here. The Musketeers are 1-7 in Quad 1 games and only have one more Quad 1 game the rest of the season, and it’s a road game against Villanova, so that’s not a second signature win. It does have one over Marquette though. Overall though, the wins are just not there.
We raised our eyebrows at Georgetown for a second, but they have fallen off the bubble.
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin, Illinois, Oregon
Should be in: UCLA, Ohio State
Work to do: Indiana, Nebraska
This is a league that will have somewhere from 8-10 bids. The locks are the locks, and UCLA and Ohio State have both played well enough this year to probably put themselves in the field, but neither are locks just yet. Oregon is quietly second in the country with eight Quad 1 wins. Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin all have six.
The two teams to really talk about here reside in the “work to do” category: Indiana and Nebraska. The Hoosiers have really struggled this year and feels like a team that has almost gotten worse as the year goes on.
Indiana is 14-8 overall and 5-6 in league play, but has lost five of its past six games, save for a one-point overtime win against Ohio State on Jan. 17. It still has a chance to turn things around but right now it feels like the Hoosiers are on the outside looking in.
Nebraska seemed dead in the water a few weeks ago as it lost seven in a row to start 2-7 in league play, but back to back big wins against Illinois and Oregon have put the Cornhuskers right back in contention. Some more big games loom. Nebraska will need some of them to stay in the conversation.
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Missouri, Texas A&M, Florida, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Mississippi State
Should be in: Texas, Oklahoma
Work to do: Georgia, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
This league is why the bubble feels relatively small this year: because the SEC is going to get so many teams in.
It’s the consensus best league in the country. I’ve already locked nine teams into the field, and the league could have upwards of 13 teams in the league. It may not get there, but it could get very close.
Texas and Oklahoma look good to get in right now. There were some conversations about Texas in recent weeks, but winning four of its past six, including wins against Missouri and Texas A&M, have made it safe for now. Oklahoma, who has won three of four, is in a similar boat.
One team to discuss here is Vanderbilt. The Commodores were in decent shape before this weekend, but an ugly loss to Oklahoma on Saturday has put a ding in their hopes. At 4-4 in the league and 16-5 overall, it still has a shot. All but one of its remaining regular season games are Quad 1 opportunities, so it has a chance to really get its resume back up to where it needs to be.
Arkansas had a dreadful start but a road win against Kentucky on Saturday puts the Razorbacks back on the fringes of contention. It was their second Quad 1 win of the season.
It feels like seven league wins is the number to get to in order to get a bid out of this league. Auburn and Alabama are the only ones already there, but two others have six and three others have five.
Mountain West
Locks: none
Should be in: New Mexico
Work to do: Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State
After a banner year last season that saw it get six NCAA tournament bids, the Mountain West has fallen back to earth this season. At most, it’ll get four bids.
New Mexico has had a very good year, sitting at 10-1 in the league and 18-4 overall, owning a pair of Quad 1 wins and six Quad 2 wins. Most of the games between the top teams in that league are Quad 2.
Utah State, San Diego State and Boise State are the teams to discuss here. Utah State has the best chance of the group, but San Diego State is not far behind. Utah State is 9-2 in the league and 19-3 overall in Jerrod Calhoun’s first season, while SDSU sits at 8-3 in the league and 15-5 overall. San Diego State had a bad Quad 3 loss to UNLV, so that hurts it slightly.
Boise State is on the outside looking in, but still has a shot if it goes on a really good run in the last month of the season.
The rest
Locks: none
Should be in: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Memphis
Work to do: VCU, Drake, Dayton, Bradley
Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Memphis are all good teams that will all probably in the field, but they play in weak leagues that have the chance to produce some really bad losses.
Gonzaga has three losses in WCC play and much was made of the loss to Santa Clara, but at the end of the day it shouldn’t be the end of the world to the committee. Its other two losses were to Saint Mary’s and Oregon State. Saint Mary’s has taken care of business and is the best team in the WCC.
Memphis took a very bad loss to Arkansas State during the non-conference. Like Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, Memphis plays in an AAC that has the ability to produce some ugly losses. However, winning the games they should win should make them OK.
VCU and Dayton come from the A10, which traditionally produces two bids but may be one this year. VCU has a better at-large chance than Dayton does, it feels like. George Mason feels like a team that can win the A10, despite the fact that they don’t really have a shot at an at-large bid. If it continues to win all these games, we may have to add them.
Drake’s back-to-back losses to Murray State and UIC really hurt them, but if those are the only games they lose and then lose to Bradley in the MVC final, a conversation is maybe had. Bradley also lost to UIC, as well as Northern Iowa.
AJ Hoops 