By Aidan Joly
We are squarely in the back half of the college basketball fan, and it’s time to take a quick look at the hot seat for coaches.
Some of these guys are squarely on the hot seat and need to do some big things to keep their jobs, while some others are just starting to feel their seats getting warm.
So, let’s take a look at it.
Kyle Neptune, Villanova
It’s still a tournament or bust situation for Kyle Neptune after he missed the tournament in each of his first two seasons. Heading into this season there were already calls for Neptune’s head and they didn’t get quieter after losses to Columbia and St. Joseph’s during the non-conference season.
Neptune did temporarily quiet the critics a little bit by rattling off eight wins in nine games between Nov. 27 and Jan. 8 as part of starting 4-1 in Big East play, but the Wildcats have since dropped four of five to fall to 5-5 in the league and 12-9 overall.
Unless things really turn around in the last month-plus of the season and Villanova finds a way to get into the tournament, it will be tough to justify bringing back Neptune for a fourth season.
Mike Woodson, Indiana
Usually making the tournament in your first two seasons and just missing the cut in year three would mark you as safe, but this is Indiana.
There were calls for Mike Woodson to lose his job at the end of last season, especially considering the availability of Dusty May, but Indiana decided to keep the alum around for another year.
Things have gotten ugly this season. Indiana does sit at 14-7 overall, which looks solid on paper, but a 5-5 mark in the Big Ten doesn’t look as nice. The Hoosiers have lost four of the past five to slip into the bottom half of the league. Those losses included back-to-back no-shows against Iowa, where they lost by 25 on Jan. 11, and then three days later against Illinois, losing by 25 again. It also suffered a 28-point drubbing against Louisville and lost by 16 to Gonzaga in the non-conference.
Indiana finished lower than it started in KenPom in each of Woodson’s first three seasons and is poised to do the same again this season. This one feels like it’s an inevitability.
Hubert Davis, North Carolina
A third big-name program on the list.
Hubert Davis has an interesting resume. North Carolina had a remarkable run to the national championship game as a No. 8 seed in Davis’ first year on the job in 2022, missed the tournament in 2023, won a regular season title and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament (it went to the Sweet 16) and now has the Tar Heels probably on the outside looking in for the tournament this season.
The Tar Heels have stumbled to a 13-9 record this year that includes 6-4 in the ACC after a road loss to fellow bubble team Pitt on Tuesday night. UNC is just 1-7 in Quad 1 games this season and has a Quad 2 loss, which came to Stanford. It needed overtime to beat lowly Boston College on Saturday. Five of its wins have come by three points or fewer, so things could be flipped badly for them right now.
I’m not overly convinced Davis would lose his job with a tournament miss, but we will see. On one hand, it’s difficult to fire a guy who has gone to a national title game and won a regular season championship in four seasons, but missing the tournament for a second time in three years is tough to tolerate at a place like UNC. I’d expect some uncomfortable conversations to be had if the Tar Heels miss.
Ben Johnson, Minnesota
It’s difficult to say whether Ben Johnson is truly on the hot seat in Minnesota, but it sure feels like this is a program that can do better.
Recent wins over the likes of Iowa, Michigan and Oregon may have given him a little bit more of a leash, but the fact of the matter is that the Golden Gophers will miss the tournament for a fourth straight season, not having gone since Johnson arrived in 2021.
The Golden Gophers are 11-10 overall and 3-7 in the Big Ten. They have never finished with more than nine league wins in a single season during his tenure. Minnesota improved its standing in NIL, but the results are not even as good as they were last season, when the Gophers won 19 games and made the NIT.
You feel for Johnson, the issues are probably above him, but someone has to be a scapegoat.
Mike Young, Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech has gone to a pair of NCAA tournaments and even won an ACC title in 2022 during Young’s tenure.
The Hokies won 19 games in each of the past two seasons and went to the NIT. Had there been a similar team in Blacksburg this season Young probably avoids serious consideration, but this year’s squad has fallen off a cliff.
Virginia Tech is 8-12 overall and 3-6 in ACC play and has fallen all the way down to No. 175 in KenPom. It’s not as low as Boston College and Miami, but that’s little consolation. The Hokies barely beat Miami on Jan. 4, a Hurricanes team that hasn’t won an ACC game and is 4-16 overall.
An early disastrous loss to Jacksonville kind of sealed how this team would be. It’s easy to expect a change in Blacksburg in the coming weeks.
Bobby Hurley, Arizona State
This one is starting to feel like an annual tradition of whether this guy will keep his job or not.
Bobby Hurley has only gone to the NCAA tournament three times in nine tries at Arizona State and has been in one of the play-in games each time.
This season it feels unlikely that the Sun Devils will make the tournament, sitting at 3-6 in its first season in the Big 12 and 12-8 overall. Its struggles are even more heightened considering expectations went up after the additions of top prospects Jayden Quaintance and Joson Sanon.
For a few years it feels like Hurley has been dead in the water and keeps his job. Maybe this year will be more of the same, or maybe there will be a search in Tempe.
Matt McMahon, LSU
The SEC is the toughest league in the country this year, and McMahon is certainly feeling that in his third season in Baton Rouge.
The Tigers are 1-5 in SEC play and 12-7 overall, ranking as the second-worst team in the league in KenPom. Still, the Tigers are playing better than they did in McMahon’s first and second years. In the first year they went 2-16 in league play and upped it to 9-9 in year two.
I lean that McMahon gets a fourth year, but it would not be a massive surprise if they decide to move on.
Thad Matta, Butler
Matta’s second stint at Butler is certainly not going as well as his first.
After managing to bring back their legendary player, longtime assistant coach and one-time head coach, Butler has slogged to a 28-36 Big East record in the midst of his third season and the Bulldogs currently sit at 2-8 in league play.
Outside of a few the Bulldogs have avoided bad losses during his tenure, but just can’t get quality wins – it is 17-42 against KenPom top 100 teams (3-10 this year) since he took over in 2022.
Butler is struggling right now too – it has lost 10 of its past 12 and has only managed to beat the league’s two worst teams, Seton Hall and DePaul, in league play.
It feels like the Bulldogs will need to rally to some extent for Matta to keep his job, even if that does mean cutting things off after just three seasons. It was a hire I was skeptical about from the jump.
Retirement watch
Leonard Hamilton, Florida State: Hamilton is 76 and Florida State is likely to miss the NCAA tournament for a fourth straight season. The program has been mired in mediocre to poor play since 2021. He’s in the final season of his contract and saw his elder statesman contemporary Jim Larrañaga retire in December. He could be next.
Fran McCaffery, Iowa: Iowa made the NCAA tournament three years in a row from 2021-2023, but is likely to miss for a second year in a row. McCaffery has been in Iowa City for 15 years and is 65. The Hawkyes are 13-8 overall and 4-5 in the Big Ten.
Others to watch
Earl Grant, Boston College: Boston College played postseason basketball for the first time since 2018 last season but the Eagles have been dreadful this season, 1-8 in ACC play and 9-11 overall. That puts them out of the top 200 in KenPom. Grant is 58-64 overall and 24-45 in the ACC since he arrived in 2021.
Adrian Autry, Syracuse: It’s tough to see Syracuse making a move from Jim Boeheim’s right-hand man after just two seasons, but there’s a ton of discontent from the fanbase over the current state of the program. The Orange are 3-6 in the ACC and 9-11 overall after going 20-12 overall and 11-9 in the ACC last year. He might be someone who is squarely on the hot seat next year.
Craig Smith, Utah: Smith hasn’t done a bad job in four years at Utah. He is 62-58 overall, but is 27-42 in league play. In the program’s first season in the Big 12 the Utes have looked multiple steps behind the league’s top programs. They sit at 4-5 in league play and 12-8 overall. Utah has not made the tournament since 2016.
Interim tags
Ron Sanchez, Virginia: Sanchez took over for the retiring Tony Bennett in October, and the Cavaliers have looked really bad. I don’t expect Sanchez to be back in the full-time role.
Bill Courtney, Miami: Courtney took over on Dec. 26 upon the midseason retirement of Larrañaga. The Hurricanes have not won a game in eight tries since he took over.
AJ Hoops 