By Aidan Joly
The NCAA tournament bracket has arrived. You can definitely say what you will about what teams got in and which teams didn’t, as well as where teams were seeded, but the 68 teams have been bracketed.
That being said, let’s get into it, region by region.
East Region
When you look at the East Region, it looks like UConn’s to lose. The Huskies are the top seed in this region and the top seed in the entire tournament after a 31-3 regular season, where it looked mostly unstoppable.
It does get something of a tough draw in terms of the teams that it would have to go up against in the second weekend, though. Big 12 champion Iowa State is the 2-seed in this region, a red-hot Illinois team that won the Big Ten is the 3-seed, and SEC champ Auburn is the 4-seed.
The Illini are one of the hottest teams in the nation right now. After surviving a scare from Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, Illinois scored 98 points in the semifinal win against Nebraska before scoring 93 on Sunday in the final against Wisconsin. Terrence Shannon has blossomed into one of the best players in the nation and scored a total of 102 points in the Big Ten tournament over three days.
Two additional teams that were in the Final Four last year, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic, are the 5-seed and 8-seed in this region. It’s a bit of a surprise that FAU was seeded this high as many thought the Owls were on the bubble and a few bracketologists didn’t have FAU in the field at all, but they are cleanly in as the 8-seed. It will face Northwestern in the first round on Friday for the right to play UConn on Sunday. San Diego State has UAB in the first round in Spokane. That sets up a potential matchup with Auburn in the second round, a Tigers team that has to make a cross-country trek just for the first weekend. Tough luck.
A first round game that could truly go either way is the 7/10 game between Washington State and Drake. Wazzu is in the tournament for the first time since 2008 after a second-place finish in the Pac-12 and winning a total of 24 games in the regular season. Kyle Smith’s Cougars have a top-30 rated defense on KenPom, while it’s opponent, Drake, has a top-40 rated offense. Something has to give here, and it will be very interesting to see who comes out on top.
In the 6/11 game, BYU will face Duquesne, who is in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1977(!) after a surprise run through the Atlantic 10 tournament. BYU has one of the most high-flying offenses in the country between Jaxson Robinson, Trevin Knell and Fousseyni Traore. Duquesne plays a tough brand of basketball but also has two great scorers in Dae Dae Grant (16.7 PPG) and Jimmy Clark III (15.1 PPG). It will be important for BYU to limit those two in order to move on.
A shoutout to Stetson, the 16-seed in this region. It is more than likely the sacrificial lambs to UConn in the first round, but the Hatters are in the tournament for the first time in program history after winning the ASUN.
In general, there’s a lot of good teams in this region, but UConn and Illinois seem like the most likely to be the ones to advance to the second weekend, setting up what would be a heck of a clash in the Elite Eight. It’s worth noting that the Huskies will not have to get on a plane for the first or second weekend, playing in Brooklyn and then (if it advances) in Boston.
West Region
This is the region that has the most potential to be region of chaos. North Carolina and Arizona are the top seeds in this region and have the most potential to move through to the second weekend, but it gets wacky from there.
It really starts with Alabama and Charleston in the first round in the 4/13 game, which seems to likely be one of the highest-scoring games of the entire tournament. Alabama has one of the best offenses in the country and plays ridiculously fast. The Tide have averaged 90.8 points per game as an offense this year, which leads all Division I teams. Mark Sears is one of the best guards in the country and averages 21.1 PPG. Charleston is right up there too, its 80.4 points per game is tied for 34th in the nation, while it also plays one of the fastest paces in the nation.
In what will surely be a very high scoring game, anything can happen here. Watch for a first round upset.
Another very intriguing first round region is the 6/11 game, which puts Clemson up against Mountain West champion New Mexico. In general, it felt like there was a lot of disrespect from the committee against that league, which had a banner season this year and got six teams in the tournament, but it felt like all six of them were under-seeded.
The Lobos are much better than an 11-seed. This a team that is 23rd in KenPom and 22nd in the NET, going up against a Clemson team that is 34th in KenPom and 35th in the NET. This should almost be a game in which New Mexico is favored to win. Richard Pitino’s team has four fantastic scorers in Jamal Mashburn, Jaelen House, Donovan Dent and Jacob Toppin and should give Clemson a real game on Friday. The guard matchup between House and Clemson’s Joe Girard III should be very entertaining.
Another team that can pull off an upset is the 12-seed in Grand Canyon. The Antelopes, matched up against Saint Mary’s, went 29-4 in the regular season and boast both a very good offense as well as a very good defense. The Gaels have a very good defense as well so it will be interesting to see the game plan that coach Bryce Drew comes up with. It will also have to come up with an answer to limit WCC player of the year Augustas Marciulionis.
The 8/9 game is between teams that have struggled at certain points in the year, Mississippi State and Michigan State. That game will be for the right to likely play North Carolina in the second round.
One of the better first round games is in this region as well, pitting 7-seed Dayton up against 10-seed Nevada. Dayton has been very good this season but took some losses in Atlantic 10 play, but the Flyers were good enough in the non-conference to earn an at-large. DaRon Holmes is the program’s best player since Obi Toppin, while Nate Santos and Koby Brea are also good core pieces.
Nevada is another Mountain West team that may have been slightly under-seeded, ranked 36th in KenPom and 34th in the NET. Jarod Lucas has been one of the better west coast players, while Kenan Blackshear is also a very good player. This will be a great game against two of the premier non-power six programs in the nation.
All of this could very well set up for a North Carolina vs. Arizona game in the Elite Eight, Caleb Love’s old team against his current team. Would be fun!
South Region
The South Region feels like probably the weakest quadrant of the four, but still has some top teams that can make a run.
Houston is the best candidate to do so. The Cougars have one of the best defenses in the country, something we have seen time and time again is the key to winning games in the tournament. Houston has allowed opponents to under 50 points a mind-boggling 10 times this season, most recently in the Big 12 quarterfinals against TCU last week. Behind a core of Jamal Shead, LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts, coach Kelvin Sampson’s squad seems to be a team able to reach the Final Four.
Some teams will give them a run for their money though. Marquette and Kentucky, both very good teams on the offensive side of the ball, are the top jobbers here. Marquette has the better defense, as Kentucky’s defense has been very suspect all season long.
The 6/11 game in this region is very intriguing, featuring Texas Tech going up against NC State. Texas Tech has been quietly one of the most solid teams in the country all season and went 23-10, going over .500 (10-7) in the best conference in the country this season. When Pop Isaacs is on, watch out. The Red Raiders have done a very good job in year one under Grant McCasland.
Going up against them was the darling of conference tournament week, NC State. The Wolfpack were not anywhere close to an at-large bid, but steamrolled through the ACC tournament, winning the league for the first time 1987. DJ Burns, a massive human being at 6-foot-9 and 275 pounds, captured the attention of America during the week. NC State will look to keep the good vibes going through the week.
One of the better teams in Power 6 that got a tough draw is Wisconsin, who has to go up against James Madison. The Dukes went 31-3 in the regular season and easily won the Sun Belt tournament. Wisconsin has a good offense behind AJ Storr, Chucky Hepburn, Tyler Wahl and more so it may be tough to see JMU pulling off the upset, but expect this to be a good game.
The 7/10 game is an interesting one as well. The 7-seed in this bracket is Florida, who did a very good job in year two of the Todd Golden era. Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin have both been impact players. However, the Gators lost leading rebounder Micah Handlogten to a broken leg in the SEC title game on Sunday, so it will be interesting to see how Colorado or Boise State, who will play in a play-in game on Wednesday night, will handle them. The Broncos are another one of those under-seeded Mountain West teams that should likely not be in Dayton playing in, but here they are.
Also in this region, Nebraska is back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2014 after a magical season in Lincoln that has resulted in 23 wins so far. The last season that the program won more was a 26-win campaign in 1990-91. Keisei Tominaga is a joy to watch and one of the most fun players in college basketball. The Cornhuskers are the 8-seed in the South Region and will go up against Texas A&M, a team that has struggled at certain points this season.
Overall, this feels like Houston’s region to lose, but it’s the tournament and strange things can happen. Right now, the Cougars are the favorite to end up in the Final Four behind that amazing defense.
Midwest Region
The final region here, the one in the bottom right quadrant of the bracket.
The story here is Purdue. We all know what happened. The Boilermakers were one of the top teams in the country last season and were the 1-seed before they were stunned by Fairleigh Dickinson, just the second time in NCAA tournament history a 16-seed beat a 1-seed in the first round.
Purdue is a 1-seed once again behind Zach Edey, the odds-on favorite to win his second Naismith Player of the Year award. Edey has averaged 24.2 points and 11.7 rebounds per game this season. As for the rest of the roster Braden Smith has been one of the best point guards in the country all season and has averaged 13.0 points per game this year and also hits 44.6% of his three-pointers. Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer have also been very key pieces for Matt Painter’s team. Purdue will go up against the winner of Montana State and Grambling (who is also in the tournament for the first time ever) in the first round.
Similar to UConn, Purdue will also likely not have to get on a plane before a potential Final Four appearance, playing preliminary round games in Indianapolis before regionals in Detroit. Of course, there are always questions about how Big Ten teams perform in the tournament, and those questions are there this year too, but Purdue seems primed for a deep run to avenge last year.
The top challenger here is Tennessee. The Volunteers have also been one of the best teams in the country this season and also boast one of the best players in the country in Dalton Knecht. The 6-foot-6 guard averages 21.4 points and 4.8 rebounds per contest. Creighton is the 3-seed in this region, with the trio of Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner potentially the best big three in college basketball.
Keep an eye out for 8-seed Utah State, an Aggies team that went 27-6 in the regular season and is a very under-seeded team. They will have a very good shot to beat TCU in the first round, setting up what could be a very interesting second round game with Purdue.
There are some question marks in this region though, beginning and ending with Kansas. The Jayhawks have had depth issues all season and right now it is still unknown if both of the team’s leading scorers, Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson, will be available this weekend as they deal with injuries. Without them, Kansas exited in the second round of the Big 12 tournament with a 20-point loss to Cincinnati. If both are out Kansas only has one available double digit scorer, that being KJ Adams. Freshman Johnny Furphy averages 9.0 PPG and is one of the better freshmen in the nation, but he’d likely be the one forced to take on a much larger role.
Kansas will go up against 13-seed Samford in the first round. Samford and their “Bucky Ball” system under coach Bucky McMillan is one of the most high-energy in the country, emphasizing a full-court press defense and quick shots on offense. The Bulldogs are fifth in the country in scoring offense at 86.0 PPG. If Kansas is low on players, Samford will have a very real shot to win this game.
Staying in that same pod, another game that will have the eyes of the college basketball world on it is the 5/12 game between Gonzaga and McNeese. Gonzaga had something of a down year and was over-seeded a little bit, but still went 24-6 and 14-2 in WCC play with a strong trio of Graham Ike, Anton Watson and Nolan Hickman.
The opponent, McNeese, could be the darling of the tournament. In former LSU head coach Will Wade’s return to the ranks after being fired amidst NCAA violations, the Cowboys went 28-3 and 17-1 in the Southland, flying through that league tournament. Gonzaga will certainly have its work cut out for them right off the bat. McNeese is eighth in the country in three-point percentage, that being the way they win games.
South Carolina vs. Oregon in the 6/11 game will be one to watch as well. Oregon was another bid-stealer by winning the Pac-12 tournament, going up against a Gamecocks program that is in the tournament for the first time since 2017.
68 teams in the tournament, only one of them will cut down the nets on April 8. Get ready for the best three weeks in sports.
AJ Hoops 