By Aidan Joly
Heading into the final weekend of the regular season, the NCAA tournament field is beginning to take shape.
But that doesn’t mean that some teams are still going to be sweating it out for the next week-plus with the hope that they get into the tournament.
Now, let’s take a look at the cases for 10 teams that are on the bubble right now, and likely will be for the rest of the week and into next week.
Seton Hall
The Pirates are probably on the right side of the bubble right now, but still have some work to do. A win against Villanova on Wednesday night would go a long way in helping Seton Hall’s chances.
Seton Hall is 18-11 overall and 11-7 in Big East play. It has five Quad 1 wins, including wins over both Marquette and UConn, one of two teams in the Big East to have beaten both teams this season (Creighton is the other).
It does have a 3-3 record in Q2 games and lost four games in the non-conference slate, two of those losses in Q2, and does have a Q3 home loss to Rutgers. It is currently ranked No. 67 in the NET.
At this point Seton Hall is probably pretty close, but the Pirates will likely need at least one win before the regular season is out (it plays DePaul on Saturday) and a win in the Big East tournament would go a long way.
Villanova
The other side of Wednesday night’s matchup, a huge one for both teams.
The Wildcats are ranked significantly higher in the NET at No. 25, but have struggled with some bad losses. It took a long time for Villanova to work out the kinks this season and as a result, lost games to Penn, St. Joseph’s and Drexel at the beginning of the season.
It has mostly rebounded nicely and has four Quad 1 wins, one of them coming against North Carolina in November. It lost seven straight Quad 1 wins before beating Providence last Saturday, a huge win for Kyle Neptune’s squad.
Again, Wednesday night’s game against Seton Hall is a big bubble clash, with the winner getting a big boost to its tournament chances.
St. John’s
A third Big East team, the Johnnies were dead in the water a few weeks ago, especially so after a three-game losing streak to Marquette, Providence and Seton Hall in February.
Something has changed in this group, though. It is currently on a four-game winning streak, including a big home win against Creighton and going on trhe road to beat Butler. The win streak has also included “taking care of business” wins against Georgetown and DePaul.
This winning streak has put Rick Pitino’s team right back in the conversation.
Right now, the team is right on the cusp of the bubble with one game to go (Georgetown on Saturday) before the Big East tournament. Saturday is a must-win, and a win or two in the Big East tournament would be wildly helpful if a team or two falters next week.
New Mexico
Going from one Pitino to another, Richard Pitino’s New Mexico group is also right there. As it stands, the Lobos probably are just on the right side of getting into the field.
New Mexico, which has one of the toughest schedules in the Mountain West due to its unbalanced conference schedule, sits at 9-7 in league play and 21-8 overall.
The Lobos are currently ranked No. 29 in the NET and only have two Quad 1 wins, which came against San Diego State and Nevada. However, it is tough to ignore a really bad Quad 4 loss to Air Force on Feb. 24, despite what it has done in league play.
New Mexico is in a must-win situation against Fresno State on Wednesday night before the regular season finale at Utah State on Saturday. It must go at least 1-1 this week to stay in the field.
Virginia
In theory, the team in third place of the ACC should basically be a shoe-in to make the tournament.
That’s not the case in an ACC that has been down this season. The Cavaliers are currently 12-7 in ACC play and 21-9 overall.
Virginia looked much better a few weeks ago, but have now lost four of six since Feb. 13 and have failed to get to 50 points in four of those games.
It has only picked up one Quad 1 win since Nov. 10, which was a win against Clemson on Feb. 3. The Cavaliers are ranked No. 49 in the NET, but the issue is that they do not pass the eye test. At all. It has avoided bad losses, but the quality wins are just not there. It only has one ranked win this year, which has since become a Quad 2 win.
It is still on the right side, though. It needs to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday for it to stay that way, though.
Utah
The Utes were on the right side of the bubble a few weeks ago, but have probably jumped to the side of missing the tournament as of right now.
The Utes are 9-9 in a down Pac-12 and 18-11 overall. It is 0-5 in Quad 1 games in league play (3-7 in those games overall). It is still hinging on a big win against BYU in December as well as avoiding bad losses, for the most part. Its worst loss was a home loss to Arizona State on Feb. 10.
This has happened while Oregon and Colorado have won more games as of late, not helping the cause for the Utes.
Sitting at No. 46 in the NET and not over .500 in a league that is not very good, to me, this is not a tournament team. Maybe it can convince otherwise, as a huge road game against Oregon in the regular season finale looms. A loss to Oregon State on Thursday night can make that game not matter, though.
Providence
Heading back to the Big East for a fourth team. It seems like the Big East is the home to half of the bubble this season.
Anyway, the Friars are 10-9 in Big East play and 19-11 overall. It has recovered nicely since losing Bryce Hopkins for the season due to a knee injury, but the team has definitely taken a step back since losing one of its best players.
They sit on the wrong side of the bubble right now, though. It has a signature win against Marquette earlier in the season, but the non-conference schedule has come back to bite them.
Sure, it has 19 wins, but seven of them have come against the following teams: Columbia, Milwaukee, Lehigh, Wagner, Rhode Island, Brown and Sacred Heart. All of those were Quad 4 games. 10 of its 19 wins are Quad 4.
The Friars do play UConn to close the regular season on Saturday. A win would be massive there, but if not Providence will have a lot of work to do in the Big East tournament to stay alive.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes are not quite there and still have a few teams in line ahead of them to get in if teams falter, but Iowa is certainly trending in the right direction.
It didn’t have much of a shot up until a few weeks ago, but have emerged after picking up three big wins against Wisconsin (Feb. 17), Michigan State (Feb. 20) and Northwestern (Mar. 2). All three were Quad 1 wins after not having any all season before that.
The Hawkeyes are ranked No. 57 in the NET, but the issue is that a lot of quality wins are not there. Its only ranked win was against Wisconsin, but the Badgers are fledging right now and it was only a two-point win. It also has a bad home loss to basement-dweller Michigan in December.
It has a big one against Illinois on Sunday to close the regular season. A win there would do a lot for the Hawkeyes, as would a run in the Big Ten tournament. It is currently 10-9 in league play and 18-12 overall.
Colorado
A second team from the Pac 12, but Buffaloes are still on the outside looking in and don’t have a ton of chances to do so.
It only has one ranked win and that was against Miami in December, but that has turned into a Quad 2 win as the Hurricanes have struggled mightily in league play.
It is 1-5 in Quad 1 games, its only win coming against Washington on Jan. 24. It is 1-3 against the two Pac 12 locked into the tournament, Washington State and Arizona.
The Buffaloes will face Oregon on Thursday and Oregon State on Saturday to close the regular season. A loss in either game would be curtains for Colorado.
Pittsburgh
The Panthers have been trying to really get on the good side of making the tournament and maybe did so amidst a five-game winning streak from Jan. 31 until Feb. 17, but have lost games to Wake Forest and Clemson since.
It does own a massive road win against Duke on Jan. 20, but it is unlikely that that would be enough to get Pitt on the right side of the bubble. It is one of two Quad 1 wins for Jeff Capel’s team this season.
A bad non-conference loss to Missouri, as well as not playing a strong non-conference schedule – one that was ranked 337th in the country on KenPom – does not help matters at all. The Panthers are ranked No. 44 in the NET.
It is a non-zero chance that the Panthers will find their way in, but it will need a deep run in the ACC tournament next week. Its regular season finale against NC State on Saturday is also a must-win game.
AJ Hoops 