By Aidan Joly
Selection Sunday is now less than four weeks away.
What does the bracket look like? This is now my second bubble watch after doing a first one a few weeks ago (that one and the explanation of the three categories can be found by clicking here).
Since then, I have locked eight more teams into the tournament to bring that number up to 21, “should be in” has decreased from 21 to 15 – mainly due to teams locking themselves in, and “work to do” decreases from 28 to 24.
Let’s get into it.
ACC
Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Should be in: Virginia
Work to do: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh
Clemson has now locked itself into the field, thanks to wins against Miami and Syracuse. The Tigers don’t have the best record in the league at 7-7, but have several quality wins and did well in the non-conference portion of the slate to lock themselves in at this point in the year.
Despite a blowout loss to Virginia Tech, Virginia moves up to the “should be in” category, now sitting at 20 wins on the season and 11-5 in league play.
We welcome Pittsburgh to the bubble. The Panthers did lose to Wake Forest on Tuesday night as the Demon Deacons help themselves out, but have won seven of nine games, including five in a row from Jan. 31 until Feb. 17. Blake Hinson’s impressive 41 point performance was one of the best all season from any player.
Virginia Tech and Miami fall off the bubble. Virginia Tech took a bad loss to Notre Dame while not picking up what would have been a crucial win against North Carolina. Meanwhile, Miami falls off amidst a four-game losing streak, most recently losing to Boston College on Saturday.
Big 12
Locks: Houston, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State
Should be in: BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma
Work to do: Texas, Kansas State, Cincinnati
Iowa State has picked up three wins since we last discussed the bubble, promoting them to lock status. I almost locked in BYU, especially so after a huge win against Baylor but I’m not quite there, although it can be argued. One or two more wins should do it.
The rest of the “should be in” remains the same, even though Texas Tech helped themselves tremendously with a win over Kansas on Feb. 12. Similar to BYU, one or two more wins and will be all set.
It took a lot out of me to keep Kansas State on the bubble. The Wildcats have fallen to 15-11 overall and 5-8 in league play amidst a slide that has seen them lose seven out of eight games, but a win over Kansas during that stretch and a win against Baylor on Jan. 16 are tough to ignore.
Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Should be in: none
Work to do: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Butler, Providence
Creighton has now locked itself in. It was already pretty close to being locked in, but then beat UConn on Tuesday night, further cementing itself into the field.
We saw some bubble-on-bubble crime with Seton Hall taking down St. John’s on Saturday. The Johnnies are just 2-9 in Q1 games and have dropped to 14-12 overall and 6-9 in Big East play. It’s almost curtains for Rick Pitino’s bunch. Butler took a not good loss to Villanova on Saturday, hurting its chances after it was looking pretty good for a little bit there. Providence is holding on as well.
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois
Should be in: Northwestern, Michigan State
Work to do: Nebraska
Wisconsin is still locked into the field, but the Badgers are trending in the wrong direction and have lost five of the last seven games, including a loss to lowly Michigan, as well as Iowa.
Michigan State moves up to the “should be in” line after a big win against Illinois and following it up with back-to-back road wins against Penn State and the aforementioned Michigan. It did lose to Iowa on Tuesday night, though.
I almost dropped Northwestern to the “work to do” line, but it still should be fine despite a recent loss to Rutgers. Meanwhile, Minnesota falls off the bubble after failing to pick up what would have been a massive win against Purdue – the Golden Gophers hung around much of the afternoon though.
Pac 12
Locks: Arizona
Should be in: Washington State
Work to do: Utah, Colorado, Oregon
Washington State continues to climb amidst a seven-game winning streak, the Cougars haven’t lost a game since Jan. 20 and has won 10 of 11. Kyle Smith’s team also debuted in the top 25 this week. On Thursday, the program will play as a ranked team for the first time since March 2008. This is new heights for the program as it tries to reach the tournament for the first time since 2008.
Meanwhile, Utah drops the “work to do” line. Before a one-point win against UCLA on Sunday the Utes had lost three in a row and five of six. The UCLA win was maybe a season-saving win.
The Utes, who are 3-6 in Q1, 5-3 in Q2 and 3-1 in Q3, can’t afford another bad loss. It has two Q1 games and three Q3 games to go. It needs to win all of those Q3 games (Stanford on 2/29, Cal on 3/2 and Oregon State on 3/7).
SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Kentucky
Should be in: Florida, Mississippi State
Work to do: Texas A&M, Ole Miss
The biggest story in the SEC right now is Texas A&M. The Aggies, who looked good as gold a few weeks ago and especially so after a win against Tennessee on Feb. 10, have now lost three in a row. Two of those losses were to Vanderbilt and Arkansas, two of the bottom three teams in the SEC. Texas A&M now finds itself squarely on the bubble and can’t afford to let this slide last much longer.
Kentucky and South Carolina lock themselves in with wins, including the Wildcats taking down Auburn on Saturday on the road.
Florida moves up to the “should be in” line with three straight wins against Auburn, LSU and Georgia. Mississippi State also moves up by avoiding bad losses to Missouri and Arkansas in recent weeks.
Mountain West
Locks: San Diego State
Should be in: Utah State, New Mexico, Colorado State
Work to do: Boise State, Nevada
The dream of a six-bid Mountain West is still alive and well. San Diego State locked itself in after a pair of Q1 wins against Colorado State and New Mexico, the Aztecs are now 5-7 in Q1 games.
The top six continue to beat up on each other on a nightly basis. All of them are between 10-4 (Utah State) and 8-5 (Colorado State, New Mexico) in league play and all but one have won at least 20 games overall already. The one not there yet is Boise State, which has 18 and will surely get there soon.
That being said, the league should bring at least four, and I would lean on the side of both Boise State and Nevada getting in when it is all said and done.
AAC
Locks: none
Should be in: Florida Atlantic
Work to do: South Florida, UAB
Memphis is the big name excluded here, with the Tigers falling off of the bubble having lost six of the last nine and most recently got blasted 106-79 by SMU on Sunday. So now, Penny Hardaway’s group is out, one of the bigger collapses in the country this season. Will this cost Penny his job? Probably not, but it may put him on the hot seat next year.
Welcome to the bubble to South Florida. The Bulls are very all of the sudden on top of the AAC with a league record of 12-1 and 19-5 overall. It just picked up a signature win over FAU on Sunday, too. Amir Abdur-Rahim has done a heck of a job in year one in Tampa. I’m not sure what the chances look like for an at-large, but stranger things have happened.
There’s lots of potential bid stealers in this league too. South Florida is one of them, as is Charlotte, SMU, UAB and even North Texas. This will be a very fun league tournament.
The rest
Locks: Dayton
Should be in: St. Mary’s
Work to do: Drake, Indiana State, Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, James Madison
Dayton locks itself into the field with a 21-4 record and 11-2 in Atlantic 10 play. St. Mary’s holds as a “should be in,” sitting at 13-0 in WCC play and 22-6 overall. Elsewhere in the WCC, Gonzaga helped its chances in a big way with a win on the road against Kentucky, the Zags’ first Q1 win of the season. It has two Q1 games left as well.
Drake has not lost a game since the last update, while Indiana State has really shot itself in the foot with back-to-back losses to Illinois State and Southern Illinois. It will need something of a miracle at this point to get an at-large.
Grand Canyon has not lost since the last update, so they stay. James Madison re-joins the conversation, sitting at 24-3 overall and 11-3 in Sun Belt play. It’s tough to see either getting an at-large bid, but they get shouts here.
AJ Hoops 