By Aidan Joly
The NCAA tournament bracket is starting to take shape as teams have all but locked themselves into the tournament, others are not quite there yet but look good to do so, and more that have work to do in the next month if they want their names called on Selection Sunday.
As of Friday afternoon, I have 13 teams that are locked into the tournament, 21 more that should be in, and 28 more that have some work to do, some of which won’t make it. There’s only 36 at-large bids available!
“Locks” are teams I feel like will for sure make the tournament, barring extreme circumstances. “Should be in” are teams that if the season ended today they would be in; they have a chance to get into the lock territory in the next few weeks but could drop into the “work to do” category.
That third category is a much broader spectrum. It encompasses some teams that are in the No. 8 and 9 seed line, all the way down to teams that are right now on the outside looking in, but can get in with some quality wins and some help from other teams.
With still over a month until Selection Sunday, it’s hardly an exact science.
Let’s get into it. Formatting this by going conference-by-conference.
ACC
Locks: North Carolina, Duke
Should be in: Clemson
Work to do: Virginia, Miami, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
North Carolina and Duke are the only locks here with the body of work speaking for itself. Clemson is almost there thanks to some very good non-conference results, a few more wins and the Tigers will find their way into the lock territory.
The ACC is still looking for a fourth team to emerge. The best candidate for that is Virginia, which is currently 9-3 in league play and 18-5 overall and has not lost a game since Jan. 13. An argument can be made for moving the Hoos up a category, but I’m keeping them here for now. Wake Forest is the next-closest to moving up to the “should be in” category.
Miami and Virginia Tech both have interesting cases, especially so in the case of Virginia Tech. The Hokies have three Quad 1 wins, but have a losing record (1-2) in Quad 2 games. It is No. 54 in the NET and No. 58 in KenPom.
The Hokies are a microcosm of the ACC. They have avoided bad losses but don’t have a really quality win. Only two Quad 1 games remain, the biggest being at North Carolina on Feb. 17. That is a must-win for the Hokies if they want to get in.
Syracuse and Florida State were both once on the bubble, but losses to Boston College and Louisville respectively eliminated them from contention.
Big 12
Locks: Houston, Kansas, Baylor
Should be in: Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma
Work to do: Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see 10+ teams from this league get in. Kansas and Baylor recently locked themselves in after the Jayhawks beat Houston and Baylor beat Iowa State.
Speaking of Iowa State, the Cyclones are on the verge of locking themselves in and would have likely done so if a last-second three that went in was released half of a second earlier. BYU, Texas Tech, TCU and Oklahoma all look good.
Kansas State almost lost its bubble status, but hung on with a win against Kansas on Monday night. Texas has had a topsy-turvy season and must avoid a loss to West Virginia on Saturday to stay on the bubble.
One team to discuss is Cincinnati, which has quietly played itself onto the bubble, and especially so after a win against Texas Tech last Saturday, its second Quad 1 win of the season. It has a couple more big opportunities coming up against Houston on Saturday and Iowa State on Tuesday. Both of those are Quad 1 games, two of six that the Bearcats have the rest of the way.
UCF was on the edge of the bubble a few weeks ago, but a couple recent losses have done this group in. But, it was a great effort from the Knights, who were not expected to be anywhere close to competitive this year.
Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette
Should be in: Creighton
Work to do: Seton Hall, St. John’s, Butler, Providence
Marquette recently locked itself in to the tournament in the midst of a six-game winning streak; the Golden Eagles have not lost since Jan. 10. The winning streak has included two wins over Villanova along with wins over St. John’s and Seton Hall.
Creighton is almost there, but back-to-back losses to Butler and Providence have delayed it for now.
Speaking of Butler and Providence, both of those wins for those two squads were huge for their respective tournament chances. Butler has won four of its past five, with that loss coming to UConn. It owns wins against both Marquette and Creighton. You know who else has wins against Marquette and Creighton? Providence. Those two are the only teams in the league that have beaten both teams.
The Friars were really shaky for a while and lost four in a row from Jan. 3 to Jan. 13, but have won four of six since then.
St. John’s still does not have a signature win, but has a chance to do so on Saturday at Marquette.
Villanova falls off the bubble after a bad loss to Xavier on Wednesday.
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Wisconsin
Should be in: Illinois, Northwestern
Work to do: Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota
To be fair, Wisconsin has lost three in a row but it stays on the “lock” line. It went to overtime with Nebraska and played Purdue tough. It’s still very tough to see a scenario where the Badgers miss the tournament.
Illinois is almost a lock, but still needs to win a game or two in the next two or so weeks.
Northwestern’s case is really interesting. It has wins over both Purdue and Illinois, but also has a loss to Minnesota, which, to be fair, I have right on the edge of the bubble; the Golden Gophers still have something of a chance to get in. It is No. 55 in the NET and No. 47 in KenPom, but has those two really quality wins. An argument can be made to put the Wildcats on the bubble, but barring a big collapse they should be in.
Michigan State is 6-6 in Big Ten play and 14-9 overall, but the Spartans are No. 24 in NET and No. 17 in KenPom. Remember, this team started 4-5 and has gone 10-4 since.
Nebraska has wins against Purdue and Wisconsin, but has also lost to Rutgers and Maryland. I still lead putting the Cornhuskers in, but there is a scenario where they miss.
Pac 12
Locks: Arizona
Should be in: Utah
Work to do: Washington State, Colorado, Oregon
The Pac 12 isn’t a one-bid league… right?
Arizona is locked in to the field and Utah is the most likely option as a second team to make it in. The Utes picked up three Quad 1 wins in non-conference play (Wake Forest, St. Mary’s, BYU), but is 0-4 in Quad 1 games in league play. It took Arizona to double overtime on Thursday night, which would have been huge. That was its last chance this season against the Wildcats, though.
It will have to stack wins the rest of the way in order to ensure its spot.
Washington State has a win over Arizona which definitely helps its chances. It ranks No. 41 in NET and No. 42 in KenPom, putting it squarely on the bubble. Meanwhile, Colorado can help its chances by beating Arizona on Saturday night. Oregon plays the Wildcats on Mar. 2.
SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn
Should be in: Kentucky, South Carolina
Work to do: Ole Miss, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State
Auburn became the third team to lock itself in to the tournament after an impressive win against Alabama on Wednesday. The Crimson Tide were already locked in after a four-game winning streak, that included a separate win against Auburn. So the rivals split their two matchups on the season.
Kentucky and South Carolina are both pretty close to being locked in and just need a couple more wins in order to do so.
Two teams in the “work to do” line have fascinating resumes. The first one is Ole Miss. The Rebels started the season 13-0 but all but one of those were Quad 3 or Quad 4 wins. A Quad 1 win against UCF was the outlier there. It has definitely avoided the bad losses, but its best win was a road win against Texas A&M. Ole Miss is No. 60 in both NET and KenPom.
The second might be even more interesting: the aforementioned Texas A&M. The Aggies have four Quad 1 wins, including a neutral site win against Iowa State in November. However, it is 2-2 in Quad 3 games, one of which was a 15-point home loss to LSU. It still has to play Tennessee twice, Alabama and South Carolina, so opportunities for huge wins are there. It also closes out the regular season against Mississippi State at home and at Ole Miss. Those two games will probably have huge implications for both the SEC tournament and the Aggies’ at-large chances.
The Aggies are No. 46 in NET and No. 43 in KenPom.
Mountain West
Locks: none
Should be in: San Diego State, Utah State, New Mexico, Colorado State
Work to do: Boise State, Nevada
It’s tough to gauge this conference. It’s easily the most underappreciated league in the country and it could easily send five teams to the tournament, and maybe six.
Quad 1 wins are aplenty in this league. San Diego State has three of them, Utah State has two, New Mexico has two and Colorado State has three.
However, Boise State remains on the bubble despite having a league-leading five of them. Nevada has four. This is because the four in the “should be in” category have better metrics. New Mexico is No. 19 in KenPom and No. 18 in NET, San Diego State is No. 20 in KenPom and No. 21 in NET, Colorado State is No. 32 in KenPom and No. 27 in NET, while Utah State is No. 44 in KenPom and No. 30 in NET.
For comparison, Boise State is No. 51 in KenPom and No. 40 in NET, while Nevada is No. 48 in both KenPom and NET.
This league is in flux. Anything can happen here. In my mind, all six should get in, but that feels tough to get all of them in. All of them have good resumes.
AAC
Locks: none
Should be in: Florida Atlantic
Work to do: Memphis, UAB
UAB played itself onto the edge of the bubble with a win against FAU on Thursday night.
A case can definitely be made to move FAU down to the “work to do” category, but I’m not ready to do that just yet. Not a lot of teams with losses to UAB, Charlotte, FGCU and Bryant would be even on the bubble, but that’s what things look like for the Owls right now. It only has two Quad 1 wins. It is on the edge of falling to the bubble, but if the season ended today, FAU would still be in.
Meanwhile, Memphis saved its tournament hopes with a win against Wichita State last Saturday, ending a four-game losing streak that included a Quad 3 loss to South Florida and a Quad 4 loss to Rice.
It has quality non-conference wins against Texas A&M, Clemson and Virginia and has a chance to play Florida Atlantic twice before the regular season ends. But one more bad loss and Memphis will need to win the AAC tournament title to get in.
The rest
Locks: none
Should be in: Dayton, Indiana State, Drake, St. Mary’s
Work to do: Gonzaga, Grand Canyon, Richmond
St. Mary’s was on the bubble up until last week but moved up to should be in after a win over Gonzaga last Saturday. Indiana State and Drake split their two matchups this year after Indiana State beat Drake last Saturday. As long as neither of them take any bad losses, both should be in.
This is uncharted territory for Gonzaga. Had it beat St. Mary’s, it would have really helped its chances to get in. The Zags are in serious danger of missing the tournament for the first time since 1998. It still does not have a Quad 1 win (0-5 in Quad 1 games this year) and only has three chances left to pick one up and will have to do it on the road: Kentucky on Saturday, San Francisco on Feb. 29 and a rematch against St. Mary’s on March 2, which is the last game of the regular season. It’s hard to imagine a NCAA tournament without Gonzaga, but it’s very possible.
Grand Canyon is 21-2 and 11-1 in the WAC but is without a Quad 1 or Quad 2 win and has a loss to sub-100 Seattle. It likely needs to run the table the rest of the regular season and then make the WAC title game to even have a prayer at an at-large.
Richmond has a better shot, with one Quad 1 win (Dayton) and five Quad 2 wins. It needs to not lose more than once the rest of the way and then make a deep run in the Atlantic 10 tournament to even feel decent.
AJ Hoops 