By Aidan Joly
We are in the last few days of 2023 and for the most part non-conference play has wrapped up.
Some teams have surprised so far this year, while others have disappointed. Here’s a few teams that have either out-performed expectations or have under-performed.
Surprising
Oklahoma
The Sooners are perhaps the most surprising team in the country.
Porter Moser’s squad has missed the NCAA tournament the past two years, but has rattled off an 11-1 start and have gotten as high as No. 7 in the country (Oklahoma is currently ranked N0. 12 in the nation).
The issues with the Sooners teams of late has been a lack of good offensive play, as well as physicality. That resulted in them falling victim to the tough Big 12 which resulted in roster turnover.
Sophomore Otega Oweh has had a massive breakout this season, leading the team with 15.7 PPG, while Siena transfer Javian McCollum has also been great, averaging 15.0 PPG on 38.6% from three. The depth is there too, with Moser going nine deep each night.
The 11-1 start is highlighted with wins against Iowa, USC, Arkansas and Providence. Its only loss was on a neutral floor, really a quasi-road game, to North Carolina in Charlotte.
Expectations were fairly low in Norman, and Oklahoma has surpassed them by a wide margin.
BYU
Staying in the Big 12, one of the conference’s newest teams has been rolling so far.
The Cougars have also started the season 11-1, featuring wins over San Diego State, Arizona State and NC State. Its lone loss came on the road to Utah.
Mark Pope’s team was picked to finish second-to-last in the Big 12 and has responded with the largest scoring margin in the country, beating teams by an average of 29.1 points. BYU also ranks in the top 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. It is also second in the country in rebounding margin, despite nobody on the team averaging more than 6.5 rebounds per game (that is Noah Waterman).
Jaxson Robertson has led the way with 16.5 PPG, while Spencer Johnson is putting up 11.5 PPG. Expect to see the Cougars nationally relevant the rest of the year.
Ole Miss
The Rebels were picked to finish 12th in the SEC in Chris Beard’s first season at the helm. The season started a little choppy, with one-possession wins against Detroit and Sam Houston State within the first four games.
However, Ole Miss has cleaned it up since then and sit at 12-0 and are one of the last three undefeated teams in the nation. It beat Temple, NC State and Cal, although its most impressive win was one against a white-hot Memphis team on Dec. 2. It also has a win against UCF.
It is a transfer-heavy group, but senior returner Matthew Murrell leads the way with 16.9 PPG. Auburn transfer Allen Flanigas has put up 16.4 PPG, while Saint Peter’s transfer Jaylen Murray averages 15.3 PPG. Two-time transfers Moussa Cisse and Brandon Murry have also carved out roles.
The offense is much better than the defense. The offense ranks 66th in the country on KenPom while the defense ranks 112th. It makes its threes at a 40.7% clip, good for eighth in the country.
Overall it is 80th in the country in KenPom and just cracked the AP top 25 for the first time this week. SEC play might bring some challenges, but there’s no reason to believe this team can’t make the NCAA tournament.
Colorado State
Colorado State was a six-seed in the NCAA tournament in 2022 but took a major dip in an injury-plagued 2022-23, finishing 15-18 and 6-12 in Mountain West play.
However, Niko Medved’s group is back at it this year with an 11-1 start and currently sit at No. 15 in the AP rankings. It did beat Boston College the day before Thanksgiving, but got on everyone’s radars with a 69-48 thumping of then-No. 8 Creighton on Thanksgiving. Since then, it has picked up wins against Colorado and Washington, its only loss coming to Saint Mary’s.
Isaiah Stevens has emerged as one of the best point guards in college basketball, averaging 17.7 PPG while dishing out 7.3 assists and makes 42.4% of his threes.
Colorado transfer Nique Clifford has also done well, and Division II transfer Joel Scott has been better than expected.
For a team picked to finish fifth in the Mountain West, it has been an extremely impressive start. The ceiling will be high for the rest of the year in Fort Collins.
Nebraska
It is still a make-or-break season for Fred Hoiberg to remain at the helm, but it sure looks good so far.
Nebraska did show improvement at the end of last year, winning six of its final nine games, but the Cornhuskers still have not finished higher than 11th in the Big Ten since Hoiberg took over in 2019-20. It goes without saying that the program has not been close to the NCAA tournament conversation in any of those years.
This might be the year for improvement, though. The Huskers are off to a 10-2 start. It did lose by 29 to Creighton and blew a 15-point lead to lose to Minnesota. However, it picked up a couple needle-moving wins in recent weeks, beating both Michigan State and Kansas State, the latter coming on the road. A 19-point win against a Pac-12 team in Oregon State doesn’t hurt, either.
Juwan Gary and Keisei Tominaga have both performed better than expected, while Charlotte transfer Brice Williams has emerged as a great scoring option. Bradley transfer Reink Mast has been a good man in the middle, averaging 13.0 points and 9.9 rebounds per game.
All of this has allowed Nebraska to quietly enter the NCAA tournament discussion – the program hasn’t been to the tournament since 2014. The Big Ten may prove to be tough, but Nebraska should continue to stay at least on the bubble moving forward.
Disappointments
UCLA
The Bruins have one of the most disappointing teams in the country and have slipped to a 6-6 record, including a buy game loss to CSU Northridge. UCLA has lost all but one of its games against power conference teams and its only power conference win was a league-opening win against Oregon State on Thursday night.
UCLA was not ranked in the preseason top 25, but it was expected to be a tournament team. If it wasn’t for freshman Sebastian Mack having a stellar freshman year, it would be really ugly. Aday Mara has struggled and is falling out of the rotation. Burke Buyuktuncel has been hurt and when he has been healthy he’s been ineffective, while Jan Vide and Ilane Fibleiul haven’t been good either.
When you think about how down the Pac-12 is, UCLA will probably have to beat Arizona at least once to make the tournament at this point. With the resources the program has, this is an inexcusable start.
Michigan State
If it wasn’t for a 24-point win against Baylor on Dec. 16, Michigan State would be at the top of this list.
The Spartans came into the season ranked at No. 4 in the country and immediately lost to James Madison on opening night. JMU is still undefeated and has cracked the top 25, so it doesn’t look like as bad of a loss on paper, but it is still a game the Spartans should have won.
Losses to Duke and Arizona are fine, but MSU sits as one of the two teams at 0-2 in Big Ten after losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska. Tyson Walker has played well (19.8 PPG), but everyone else has underachieved to this point, including AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins. Five-star freshman Xavier Booker has been in and out of the rotation.
MSU has won three in a row, but two of them have come against mid-major opponents. It still has a lot of proving itself to do.
Arkansas
The Razorbacks are 7-5. They have a very good home win against Duke, but that is about it for non-conference play.
Other than the Duke win Arkansas only has one win against high-major competition after it needed double overtime to squeak past Stanford on a neutral floor. It lost to both Memphis and North Carolina in the Atlantis tournament as well.
The most eye-popping loss was a home loss to UNC Greensboro on Nov. 17 and it has also had a few less-than-stellar performances against inferior competition on its home floor, including only beating Lipscomb by three.
Houston transfer Tramon Mark (16.9 PPG) and Temple transfer Khalif Battle (15.3 PPG) have both been good, but nobody else on the team averages in double figures. Trevon Brazile is close though at 9.7 PPG. El Ellis, who was expected to play a big role on offense, has struggled tremendously and has seen his minutes dwindle as a result.
Arkansas was seen as a high-ceiling, low-floor team coming into the year. We are seeing the floor. The good news is that it hasn’t done too much damage to its resume and has plenty of opportunities to come, but is significantly less likely to be as much of a March contender as many thought.
USC
There was much (rightful) hype coming into the season for the Trojans. Andy Enfield was bringing in the top freshman class, including No. 1 prospect Isaiah Collier as well as Bronny James. USC was going to be must-see TV.
Things looked good after a season-opening win against Kansas State but things have come crashing down since then. Now, USC is 6-6 and its resume includes losses to UC Irvine and Long Beach State. Its only power conference win other than the Kansas State win was a triumph over Seton Hall on Thanksgiving.
Of course, James had his health scare that kept him out until Dec. 10, but he will need to give the Trojans a lift. So far signs do not really point to that, in fairly limited minutes he has averaged 5.0 PPG while USC has lost three of the four games he has played in. Collier and Boogie Ellis have both been good in the backcourt and Kobe Johnson has emerged into a double-digit scorer, but the frontcourt hasn’t done much of note. Washington State transfer DJ Rodman (son of Dennis) has taken a major step back and is only averaging 6.2 PPG.
As it stands, the Trojans are not an NCAA tournament team. When you have the number one freshman class, that is just not acceptable.
California
Though Cal already has more wins this season (4) than it had all of last season (3), you can categorize a 4-7 start as disappointing.
There was some hype coming in as new coach Mark Madsen made some big splashes in the transfer portal, depth has been an issue. Texas Tech transfer Jalen Tyson is averaging 19.4 PPG, a good season for him. However, he is not one of the only four players who have appeared in all 11 games so far. Two of those four have been ineffective. Fardaws Aimaq, Jalen Cone and Keonte Kennedy are all in their final seasons of college basketball, meaning a rebuild will be in order next year.
This season has been a disappointment as the Bears started 2-5 while taking losses to Pacific, Montana State and UTEP. Currently its best win was against Santa Clara, which doesn’t move the needle.
Cal’s chances of making the tournament in Madsen’s first year were never high, but the chances are dead before the new year. With Cal heading to ACC next year, this needed to be a big year. It has not been.
AJ Hoops 