By Aidan Joly
After six days of preliminary action of the NCAA tournament, the tournament has been whittled down to 16 teams.
At this point, the seeding is pretty irrelevant, even Princeton, who has shown the confidence and ability to pull off another stunner or two.
That being said, here is a power rankings of the 16 teams remaining, one of them will end up cutting down the nets.
16. Princeton
The Tigers shut down an elite Arizona offense in the first round and then blew out Missouri to become the fourth-ever 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16, although this is the third year in a row that has happened. Rebounding has been the name of the game for Mitch Henderson’s group, having won the rebounding battle in each of its first two games, including winning it 44-30 against Missouri, a number that includes 16-8 on the offensive boards.
Few players have stuffed the stat sheet like Tosan Evboumwan in this tournament, finishing with 15 points, seven rebounds and four assists against Arizona and nine points, nine rebounds and five assists against Missouri. He also recorded a block in each of the two games.
Whatever magic the Tigers have, keep believing it in. We will see.
15. Florida Atlantic
The Cinderella team of this tournament? The Owls did benefit from the road here a little bit, getting matched up against Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round instead of Purdue. However, they did show a great amount of poise as it stole a win against Memphis in the first round, a team that was veteran-laden and played smart basketball.
Johnell Davis has been a one-man wrecking crew for Dusty May’s group, finishing with 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and five steals against FAU in the second round. He has scored 12 or more points in eight games in a row.
Despite the program having never won an NCAA tournament game until last week, the Owls are not afraid of the moment.
14. San Diego State
The Aztecs have quietly gotten to this point of the tournament, but like FAU, they have done it by somewhat benefitting by the schedule, having faced a 13 seed in the second round.
The defense has been the calling card for this team, having limited Charleston and Furman to 57 and 52 points, respectively, both of those teams known for their offensive prowess. Nathan Mensah, Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammel have been the keys defensively, while Matt Bradley has been the go-to guy on offense. They say defense wins championships, the key for the Aztecs will be to control the defensive battle and do just enough on offense to keep advancing.
13. Xavier
The Musketeers are an over-seeded three seed and had a lot of trouble with Kennesaw State in the first round, trailing by 13 with less than 10 minutes left before Xavier went on a run and won by five. It somewhat redeemed itself in the second round against Pittsburgh, winning by 11 in a game that wasn’t that close.
Xavier doesn’t take a lot of threes, but when it takes them, it makes them. They shoot 39% from three, a number that is led by Souley Boum and Adam Kunkel. They have shot 40% from behind the arc in half of their games this season, too. Boum has totaled 31 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists through the first two games. Meanwhile, big man Jack Nunge had 10 points and 11 rebounds against Kennesaw, then 18 points and three rebounds against Pittsburgh.
The key will be to keep making shots and stay out of foul trouble, with essentially a six-man rotation.
12. Michigan State
Well, well, well. Tom Izzo has the Spartans back in the second weekend of the tournament, after not being on the national radar for most of the season and earning a 7-seed in the tournament.
Forcing turnovers has been huge for the Spartans, stealing the ball seven times against USC and then nine times against Marquette. On offense, similar to Xavier, not taking a lot of threes, but have a good percentage. Three Spartans shoot over 40% from three, led by Joey Hauser’s 46.2% from behind the arc. Tyson Walker was huge in the win against Marquette, scoring 23 points, while Hauser had 14 points and 10 rebounds.
The key for the Spartans to keep the run going is to keep the defense up.
11. Creighton
The scoring prowess of the Bluejays has been the key to winning. They have multiple players that can score in bunches and they’ve shown it, with Ryan Kalkbrenner dropping 31 in the first round win against NC State, followed by Ryan Nembhard’s 30 against Baylor in the second round.
Creighton is one of the most efficient teams in the country on the offensive end, making a lot of shots on the first attempt, which creates an up-and-down game, one that can wear down opponents.
The depth is an issue, but if Kalkbrenner, Nembhard, Trey Alexander, Arthur Kaluma and Baylor Scheierman are all playing well, this is a really tough group to beat.
10. Miami
I might be a little higher on the Canes then most, they dominated the second round game against Indiana, using an early lead then followed it up with a 16-2 run in the second half to sink the Hoosiers.
The Canes might be a little streaky and did look shaky for much of the first round game against Drake, but the scoring options are plentiful. They have four players that average 13 or more points per game, led by 16.1 points per game from Isaiah Wong, who scored 27 points and grabbed eight rebounds in the Indiana game. Norchad Omier is the big man they can’t live without, having grabbed 17 rebounds against Indiana.
Miami will have to continue to go on scoring streaks like this. The Canes are 17-3 this season when they score 71+ points, so that may be the key for them to keep winning.
9. Tennessee
The Vols looked really vulnerable this season with an inconsistent offense and then the loss of starting point guard Zakai Zeigler made them a prime upset candidate, but Tennessee it still here.
This is a tough, physical group on the defensive end and the results have shown, limiting Louisiana to just 55 points in the first round and holding a red-hot Duke team to just 52. They also have 17 steals between the two games. There’s no such thing as easy offense against the Vols, and that will have to be the key as they enter the second weekend.
On offense, they’ll need more performances like the ones from Olivier Nkamhoua and Santiago Vescovi, who finished with 27 and 14 against the Blue Devils, respectively.
8. Arkansas
The Razorbacks are in the second weekend of the tournament for the third year in a row, and Eric Musselman is starting to develop a reputation as one of the best March coaches in the country.
Surprisingly, star freshman Nick Smith hasn’t been great through the first two games of the tournament, but Devo Davis and Ricky Council have picked up the slack, combining for 80 points and 30 rebounds in the Razorbacks’ wins against Illinois and Kansas. Makhi Mitchell has been great on defense and Kamani Johnson has been terrific on the boards.
It can’t be understated how important Council has been for the Razorbacks, seemingly getting a bucket every time they need it. The key will be for him to keep playing well, and to get the freshman going.
7. Kansas State
This is a crafty and efficient Wildcat team. Kansas State doesn’t shoot as well from behind the arc but it certainly makes up for that in the paint, having shot 70% from inside the arc in the first round game against Montana State and followed it up by shooting 63.6% from inside against Kentucky in the second round.
Even though it doesn’t shoot well from three, it defends the perimeter with the best of them, limiting opponents to 10-41 from three through the first two games of the tournament.
The Wildcats need to keep the turnovers to a minimum, especially when they are committed by Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. However, Nowell especially has been great and scored 27 points against Kentucky and was the best player on the floor in that game. It will be about keeping that duo doing well.
6. Texas
The defense of the Longhorns has gotten them here. They faced one of the best offensive teams in the country in Colgate in the first round and limited them to just 61 points on just 43% shooting. Then, the Longhorns followed it up by holding Penn State to 66, the Nittany Lions also being one of the better offensive teams in the nation.
On offense, Marcus Carr has continued to be the star even without the ball. He scored just 10 points against Penn State, but made a lot of plays that won’t show up on the box score.
Texas shoots the three a little more than it probably should, so the key will be to limit settling for bad shots and continuing to play well on the defensive end.
5. UCLA
I would have had the Bruins a tad higher, but they are dealing with some injuries right now that might hamper them in the future rounds.
However, despite the injuries to Jaylen Clark and Adem Bona, the Bruins haven’t had an issue through the first two games, having trailed for just 46 seconds between the two games. We will also have to see if David Singleton will be available going forward. If he’s out, it might be curtains for the Bruins.
Scoring in general has been something of an issue while having a great defense, something that seems to be a common theme among the teams remaining. Jaime Jaquez has been everything for this team and will have to keep playing well.
4. Gonzaga
The Zags have looked terrific on offense and are the only team in the Sweet 16 to have scored 75 or more points in each of their first two tournament games, going for 82 against Grand Canyon and 84 against TCU.
The up-tempo offense needs to be the bread and butter for the Bulldogs. It’s a veteran-laden group with Drew Timme and Anton Watson leading the way, both of them guys who have been here before. Timme has scored at least 21 points in nine of his past 10 NCAA tournament games and can keep the Zags in any game. If you try to play them by out-scoring them, it won’t work.
If Gonzaga can keep scoring at will, it can beat just about any team.
3. UConn
Both of UConn’s tournament games so far looked pretty similar. It trailed by two at the half to Iona before out-scoring the Gaels 50-24 in the second half to win 87-63, then only led by one at the break against Saint Mary’s before out-scoring a different Gaels team 39-25 in the second half to win 70-55 and get to this point.
The Huskies have been particularly dominant on the boards through the first two games, led by Adama Sanogo, Andre Jackson and Donovan Clingan. Sanogo in particular has been great on offense as well, scoring a combined 52 points, but also grabbed 21 rebounds and swatted two shots.
This is a deep Huskies team. All it needs to do is be consistent for 40 minutes and this really looks like a team that can win the national championship.
2. Houston
Like UCLA, Houston is a team that is dealing with some injuries. No doubt the Cougars played better against Auburn than it did against Northern Kentucky, but Marcus Sasser is still nursing a groin injury and Jamal Shead is dealing with a bad knee. However, maybe six days off is what the backcourt pairing needs.
Meanwhile, Jarace Walker and J’Wan Roberts have picked up the slack, especially on the defensive end. Defense and rebounding is the key for this team and they will need it when the offense looks suspect, an offense that is certainly susceptible to go on cold streaks.
If Sasser and Shead get healthy, Houston is a real title threat.
- Alabama
The Crimson Tide have looked dominant through the first weekend of the tournament. While all of the other three 1 seeds had issues – Purdue and Kansas being eliminated in the first weekend and Houston having trouble with Northern Kentucky – Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Maryland never stood much of a chance.
This is a team that does everything well, from an up-tempo offense led by Brandon Miller and clamping down on defense. They don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they average more than five blocks per game as a team and limit threes. Jahvon Quinerly, Charles Bediako and Mark Sears have been very important as well.
The recipe for a national title is still relatively simple. Since December 20, Alabama is 21-0 when scoring at least 70 points. The Crimson Tide can beat you with both offense and defense. This is still the strongest team in the tournament and as of now should be the favorite to cut down the nets.
AJ Hoops 