By Aidan Joly
A bracket is here. That’s all. Let’s roll.
South Region
Starting off with Alabama, who earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history, has a strong case to be the team that comes out of this region. The Crimson Tide finished off the regular season 29-5 and picked up a 19-point win against Texas A&M in the SEC title game on Sunday afternoon.
Brandon Miller has established himself as the premier freshman in the country, racking up 19.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. The rest of the core in Mark Sears, Noah Clowney, Jahvon Quinerly makes Alabama a real favorite to win the national title for the first time ever.
However, it won’t be an easy road for Alabama. No. 2 seed Arizona looms after it won the Pac-12 title behind five double digit scorers, headlined by 19.8 points and 9.1 rebounds per game from Azuolis Tubelis. A second weekend matchup between the Wildcats and No. 3 seed Baylor would be a lot of fun as well, with another star freshman in Keyonte George as well as senior Adam Flagler, who has been a huge part of these Bears teams the past few years and dates back to the 2021 national title team. An Elite Eight matchup between Alabama and Baylor would bring the best and second best freshmen in the country together and would be a treat to watch.
The 8-9 game in this region, Maryland against West Virginia, is going to be a lot of fun. This is two teams that play a similar style and will likely be a game that comes down to the final few possessions.
The 7-10 game in this region is a lot of fun as well in No. 7 seed Missouri against No. 10 seed Utah State. Missouri is 10th in the country in adjusted offense on KemPom with one of the best-shooting offenses in the country. Kobe Brown shoots over 45% from behind the three-point line, while Cleveland State transfer D’Moi Hodge shoots just under 40% from three. The Tigers are doing this under first-year head coach Dennis Gates, who brought in Hodge from his previous job in Cleveland. There’s not many coaching jobs in the country that are better than the one Gates has done with the Tigers this season and maybe that will result in a tournament win.
Meanwhile, Utah State is 13th in the country in adjusted offense and despite the 10 seed, are 18th overall in KenPom and were somewhat of a bubble team despite a Mountain West record of 13-5 and a 26-8 overall mark. Steven Ashworth and Taylor Funk are a great 1-2 punch for Ryan Odom’s offense in his second season in Logan. It very much feels like a game that the winning team will have to score at least 80 points.
The big potential upset in this region and seems like the easy one is No. 12 seed Charleston picking up a win against another Mountain West squad in San Diego State. It’s a really tough draw for the Aztecs against Charleston, which is much better than the typical 12 seed after going 31-3 overall and 16-2 in the Colonial and would have been in the conversation for an at-large had it not won the league. Nothing against San Diego State, but it’s tough to see them winning the game here.
East Region
This feels like the region that could get flipped upside-down. Purdue is the top seed in this region and it’s almost hard to see the Boilermakers make it to the second weekend.
The reason for this is fairly simple. The 8-9 matchup right below it is going to be tough either way. Memphis, the No. 8 seed, surprisingly won the American tournament with a 75-65 win against Houston on Sunday, a win which undoubtedly hurt Houston’s overall seed, even though it still got a No. 1 seed in a different region.
Memphis will go up against No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic in the first round, which is a very winnable game for the Owls and a draw that might get Dusty May’s squad into the second weekend. This is a team that has only lost three games this season and won 20 games in a row between November 14 and January 28. This is another team that scores a lot of points and do it in a way that features a lot of depth, the team’s leading scorer in Johnell Davis with only 13.4 points per game. However, Davis is a guy who can become a household name in the next week with his skill and play style. It’s almost a scenario where you expect the Owls to make the second weekend. Tough draw for the top seed.
Meanwhile, a sexy upset pick is to take Oral Roberts over Duke, but the Eagles drew one of the few teams that it probably didn’t want to see. After treading water by Duke standards for the lot of the season, the Blue Devils are finally finding their stride, having won nine in a row coming in and won the ACC tournament. Jon Scheyer has come into an impossible situation and has not only survived, but thrived in his first year at the helm. Max Abmas will once again be a fun watch and Oral Roberts will certainly be in the game and may have a chance to pull it out, but it is tough to see that happening.
One upset, however, that has a real possibility, is No. 13 seed Louisiana taking down Tennessee. The Ragin’ Cajuns play an exciting brand of basketball that is led by Jordan Brown’s 19.4 points per game and some sharp-shooting from Greg Williams Jr., who shoots over 40% from behind the arc.
Kentucky-Providence in the 6-11 game will be a lot of fun and it feels like a game that is somewhat under the radar. It’s a revenge game for Bryce Hopkins too, who transferred out of Kentucky last year after not getting much playing time as a freshman, to transform into the Friars’ leading scorer. We’ll see who gets the last laugh there.
Marquette especially impressed late in the season and ended up winning the Big East tournament after going 17-3 in league play and currently sits at 28-6 overall, good to earn the No. 2 seed in this region. It has not the easiest draw in Vermont, but the Golden Eagles sh0uld be able to get past the Catamounts.
An Elite Eight matchup between Marquette and Duke feels somewhat inevitable, but would be a great game and would take place at Madison Square Garden, which would make it that much more of an electric atmosphere. No. 3 seed Kansas State will try to prevent that, though. We shall see.
Midwest Region
This region has a lot of intriguing matchups in it. Houston is the top seed in this bracket and might end up having a somewhat easy road to the Final Four of things go right for them. A lot of it depends on the availability of Marcus Sasser, who suffered a groin injury during the conference tournament, but so far, signs point to him being available on Thursday against Northern Kentucky.
Xavier as a No. 3 seed for sure feels high and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Musketeers bow out early. However, it has a chance to do well behind the trio of Souley Boum, Colby Jones and Zach Freemantle, who all average more than 15 points per game. If no upsets happen, it would be set up for a matchup with Iowa State, which feels somewhat favorable for them to get to the Sweet 16.
However, the winner of the play-in game feels like a team that could give the Cyclones a hard time. That play-in game is a pair of 11 seeds in Mississippi State and Pittsburgh. Right now, the writer of this piece leans Pittsburgh, a team that feels a lot better than a No. 11 seed that barely squeaked into the tournament. Remember, this was a team that finished fifth in the ACC, but finished only one game back of first place. The Panthers are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016, a real feel-good story of the season after the program endured some awful basketball the past 5-7 years. Jamarius Burton and Blake Hinson are a great 1-2 punch for the Panthers, along with Nelly Cummings as a very good third option.
Another low seed that is going to have a chance is No. 12 seed Kent State, which will face Indiana late Friday night. Sincere Carry has been around forever and finally has a chance to pluck off one of the sport’s bluebloods. Hoosiers star Trayce Jackson-Davis will surely be trying to stop the Golden Flashes from moving on.
One team to keep on the radar as a very low seed is No. 15 seed Colgate, which should be expected to keep it a game against Texas. 15 seeds winning in the first round has become increasingly common in the past few years. Colgate could be that team this year, one of the best offenses in the country that can shoot with the best of them.
The two middle seed games will be a lot of fun as well. Iowa-Auburn in the 8-9 game will certainly be an interesting game between two teams that have been streaky all year. The 7-10 game between Texas A&M and Penn State – the Nittany Lions back in the tournament for the first time since 2011 – will be a fascinating contrast of play styles. Something is going to have to give in that game.
The only game that hasn’t been hit in this region is No. 5 seed Miami against Drake. Miami was in the Elite Eight one year ago as a No. 10 seed. With a core of Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller, Norchad Omier and Nijel Pack, the Hurricanes are a dark horse Final Four pick if things go right. Omier suffered an ankle injury in the ACC tournament, so his status will be something to watch. Right now, with Omier potentially out for the first round game on Friday, Drake is actually the favorite. That is going to be something to monitor throughout the week.
West Region
Hoo boy, is there a first round game in this region circled in this quadrant. We get No. 4 seed UConn facing Iona in the first round on Friday afternoon in Albany. My god. Both schools are close to Albany, Iona is familiar with the building and both fanbases will travel well.
UConn was a team that was thought to have national title chances at the beginning of the season, but a streak of bad basketball in January left the fanbase panicking. However, now the Huskies have won nine of the past 11 games, but bowed out in the Big East semifinals. Adama Sonogo and Jordan Hawkins are the big two names for UConn, but it will be facing Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels, a squad that hasn’t lost a game since January 27. Between the two teams being close, both fanbases traveling well and the thought that Pitino will almost certainly be leaving for the St. John’s job after Iona’s season comes to a close, MVP Arena is going to be rocking on Friday afternoon.
The top seed in this bracket is Kansas, the Jayhawks trying to defend the national title, but it won’t be an easy road. No matter what happens in the 8-9 game between Illinois and Arkansas, it is not going to be an easy second round game and it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see the Jayhawks not make the second weekend.
One potential second round matchup to get excited about is a potential matchup between No. 3 seed Gonzaga and No. 6 seed TCU. The Horned Frogs have felt all year like they are a team that has been built for March. Mike Miles Jr. and Damion Baugh are the two guys for TCU, while Drew Timme is going to make one final tournament run for the Zags. It’s not hard to see the Bulldogs making a run to the Final Four, again, if things go right. It’s not your typical Gonzaga team that went through the regular season next to unscathed (it had 5 losses), but is hitting its stride now. A Sweet 16 game between Gonzaga and UCLA, a rematch from the 2021 Final Four, which ended on a near-half court buzzer beater from Jalen Suggs, would be a very fun watch.
However, for that second round game to happen, TCU will need to get past either Arizona State or Nevada from the play-in game, with the Pac-12 ending up having four teams make the dance.
The 5-12 game between St. Mary’s and VCU is sure to be a defensive struggle and a game that only 50 points will win it. Logan Johnson and Aidan Mahaney have been fun watches for the Gaels this season and they’ll have to go up against Adrian Baldwin Jr. and Brandon Johns Jr. from the Rams. Both teams are very good defensively and that game is sure to be all about that.
Northwestern and Boise State will face each other in the 7-10 game that could certainly go either way. Boo Buie has transformed himself into a star in Evanston with 17.1 points per game, while Chase Audige is a very quality second option. The Boise State Broncos definitely deserve to be here, after a 24-9 season and 13-5 in the Mountain West. It’ll be a fun game to see.
This is the best time of the year. 68 teams and only one of them will get to cut down the nets in Houston on April 3. Between then, you never know what to expect and that’s the magic of this tournament. Enjoy it.
AJ Hoops 