By Aidan Joly
Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away and the NCAA tournament bracket is starting to take shape. But still, there are questions to be answered on a few teams, whether those squads are in or out.
Now, this will go through conference by conference among leagues that are likely to have multiple NCAA tournament bids and group them by “locks,” “should be in” and “work to do” to evaluate their NCAA tournament chances.
For the record, going through all of the conferences, 23 have been marked down as one bid leagues and won’t be listed. So, nine conferences are projected to be multi-bid. That leaves 45 bids available for those multi-bid leagues, including automatic bids. We’ll get into that later.
Starting off…
American
Locks: Houston
Should be in: Memphis
This one is fairly self-explanatory, there’s only two real NCAA tournament teams in this league and the No. 1 AP team in the country is one of them. Memphis has 20 wins and are in the “should be in” category for now, but can move up to lock status with a win against Houston on March 5. Tulane has racked up wins, but is not close to an at-large.
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Miami, Duke
Should be in: NC State, Pittsburgh, North Carolina
Work to do: Virginia Tech, Clemson
A lot has been made of North Carolina, the preseason No. 1 team, not making the tournament, but the Tar Heels should still hear their names called on Selection Sunday. As long as the Tar Heels win two more games in the regular season and a game in the ACC tournament, it should be all set to make it. We should be saying hello to the Pitt Panthers, who are on track to make the dance for the first time since 2016. Clemson is probably out after a loss to Louisville over the weekend. Virginia Tech has an outside chance, but needs to basically win out and make a run in Greensboro.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU
Should be in: Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Work to do: Texas Tech
In the end, it’s safe to mark the Big 12 down for eight of the 10 teams in the league making the bracket. It has been the best league in the country all year. West Virginia picked up a big win against Oklahoma State on Monday that propelled the Mountaineers to the “should be in” category, although it could use one or two more total wins between the regular season and conference tournament to really feel safe. It’s tough to see a way Texas Tech makes it at this point, unless it can beat both TCU and Kansas and win a game or two in the conference tournament.
Big East
Locks: Xavier, Marquette, Creighton, UConn
Should be in: Providence
The Friars are on the cusp of being a tournament lock, sitting at 20-7 and 12-4 in Big East play. One more win should do it for Providence. The other four are locks and the bottom six of the league are all well on the outside looking in. Seton Hall is the only one in that group that might have an outside chance, but it’s doubtful.
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland, Michigan State
Should be in: Iowa, Rutgers, Illinois
Work to do: Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State
It’ll be another year with lots of Big Ten representation on the bracket. Iowa is another one of those teams right on the cusp of making it in that is just a win or two away from the lock category. Rutgers and Illinois both need a win or two in the regular season and a win in the conference tournament. Out of the three in the “work to do” category, Wisconsin has the best chance of the three of them, but needs to have a good showing over the next few weeks to convince the selection committee to include them. Penn State has had a good showing in its bid to make the dance for the first time since 2011, but it seems unlikely.
Mountain West
Locks: San Diego State, Boise State, Nevada, Utah State
Work to do: New Mexico
Boise State put itself in the lock category with its current three-game winning streak, taking care of business against basement dwellers Wyoming, Colorado State and UNLV. A loss would have hurt its chances a great deal. Meanwhile, New Mexico started the season 14-0, but has gone 6-7 since then. It needs to win at least three of its last four in the regular season to feel good and two of those games are against Boise State and San Diego State.
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, UCLA
Work to do: USC, Oregon, Arizona State
It’s tough to see more than one of those three in the “work to do” category making the tournament, so the Pac-12 will be left with three teams at most, it seems. USC is squarely on the bubble and needs to do more winning to feel good about its chances. A win against Arizona on March 2 would do wonders for the Trojans’ chances. A win or two in the conference tournament is probably necessary as well. Oregon and Arizona State are both highly unlikely.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M
Should be in: Kentucky
Work to do: Vanderbilt, Missouri, Mississippi State
Similar to North Carolina, much discussion has been had about Kentucky’s tournament watch, but a win against Tennessee on Saturday, finishing off a season sweep of the Volunteers, very much helped the Wildcats’ chances. Going 2-2 the rest of the way and getting a win or two in the SEC tournament should put them in the lock category by Selection Sunday. Vanderbilt has been a surprise story this season and have recently had some saying “hmm, maybe” over the past couple weeks, currently in the midst of a five-game winning streak. The Commodores still have a chance to steal a bid with a late-season charge. Remember when Missouri was 12-1 and Mississippi State was 11-0? Good times. After MSU was 11-0, it lost eight of nine in December and January, but has won six of the past seven since. Streaky!
WCC
Locks: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Not much to be said here. Both are solidly in and everyone else is out. Almost put down Santa Clara in “work to do,” but that felt a little foolish.
So, the 23 bids from one-bid leagues sets up 45 bids remaining. There are 43 teams marked down here as “lock” or “should be in,” leaving a few bids out there. It’s an inexact science, and some teams might fall from “should be in” and not make it, while some others can move from “work to do” to making the tournament.
That’s just the beauty of the bracket and those questions will be answered in the next couple of weeks.
AJ Hoops 