By Aidan Joly
This season, 48 of Division I’s 363 teams have never made the NCAA tournament. 37 of them are eligible to make it. With Division I rapidly expanding and Division I’s numbers rising every year, there comes more opportunity for teams to make the tournament for the first time.
That being said, here’s seven teams that have a good shot at doing that this year, loosely ranked from most likely to least likely.
Utah Valley
The Wolverines are likely the top contender here. Utah Valley currently sits two full games ahead of the rest in the WAC, sitting at 11-2 in league play and 20-6 overall. Mark Madsen’s squad has been the best in the league all year and also boast nonconference wins against BYU and Oregon. It has four double digit scorers, that has included great consistency from Trey Woodbury and a double-double threat in Akron transfer Aziz Bandaogo. This is a team that might end up being a popular upset candidate on brackets, too.
Youngstown State
The Penguins are currently tied for the lead in the Horizon League at 12-4 and are the only team in the league with 20 total wins so far. This team has a top-35 KenPom-rated offense, one that is anchored by Dayton transfer Dwayne Cohill, who averages 18.1 points per game. Fairleigh Dickinson transfer Brandon Rush and Canisius transfer Malek Green have both come into their own as well. This would be one of the more exciting low-seeded teams to watch in March.
Kennesaw State
In his first season at the helm, Amir Abdur-Rahim went 1-28 with this Owls group in 2019-20. Now, after one of the best rebuild jobs in the country, he has them to 12-2 in the Atlantic Sun, good to tie for first in the league. Kennesaw State has only lost one game since January 5. A top four group of players that consists of Terrell Burden, Brandon Stroud, Demond Robinson and Chris Youngblood have all grown together the past few years, and it might just pay off this year.
UC Riverside
Head coach Mike Magpayo has a fantastic story. He is the only Division I head coach with full Asian heritage and took over this program in 2020 while the school’s administration was mulling ending its athletic department. In the midst of his third season, he is 46-30 and 26-15 in Big West play. Zyon Pullin is one of the best mid-major point guards in the country, sitting at 18.1 points per game. The Highlanders are one of several teams that will be in the mix in the Big West.
UMass Lowell
If a team in the America East can upset mid-major heavyweights Vermont and Bryant, it’s Pat Duquette’s Riverhawks squad. UMass Lowell is 20-7 on the season and 7-5 in league play, good to tie it for third in the league. It had an especially strong nonconference campaign as well. It has one of the more effective offenses in the country and is fantastic on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in the country in offensive rebound percentage on KenPom. This is a tough team to play for anyone with that stat to hang your hat on.
Quinnipiac
Three teams sit head and shoulders above everybody else it seems, but there is always some chaos in the MAAC and the Bobcats might seem to be the one to cause it. Quinnipiac currently sits at 17-9 on the season as one of the biggest surprises in mid-major hoops after seemingly being on a plateau for a few years under Baker Dunleavy. It sits at 8-7 in the MAAC as it is currently on a three-game losing streak. It is already the program’s winningest season since 2013-14, can it cap it off with its first dance?
Grambling State
The Tigers pulled off a big upset against Colorado all the way back in November and followed it up by beating Vanderbilt, but this team is no slouch. Grambling sits in second place in the SWAC at 10-3 in the league and 17-8 overall. Cameron Christon and Carte’are Gordon are both threats with the ball and on the boards, which can make this team tough to match up with. Grambling’s turnover numbers are some of the worst in the country, which could hurt them come conference tournament time, but have performed well when they take care of the ball.
Honorable mentions
- SIU Edwardsville: 17-10, 8-6 Ohio Valley
- UT Martin: 16-11, 8-6 Ohio Valley
- Maryland Eastern Shore: 14-10, 6-3 MEAC
- Purdue Fort Wayne: 15-12, 7-9 Horizon
- Stetson: 14-11, 9-5 Atlantic Sun
- Army: 14-13, 8-6 Patriot
- Western Illinois: 15-11, 8-7 Summit
AJ Hoops 