By Aidan Joly
Believe it or not, we are going to have a bracket in less than seven weeks and the Round of 64 gets underway seven weeks from today.
That being said, it’s time to take a look at three dark horses to make the Final Four based on some metrics. The first one being does it have a star player, or a group of guys who the team can use to carry it to the Final Four, does this team have strong play in the backcourt and does this team have a good coach who can make his team tough to prepare for it.
So, time to get right into it.
Miami
This is a popular dark horse pick. The Hurricanes made a surprising run to the Elite Eight last season and currently sit at 7-3 in ACC play, 16-4 overall.
The Hurricanes can roll with a star who got them to the Elite Eight last year, that being Isaiah Wong, who averages 16.3 points per game and shoots over 36% from behind the three-point arc. He’s become an opportunistic defender as well, with 1.5 steals per contest, and rare does he turn the ball over as a point guard. He’s a guy who has been through the wringer, averaging 21.5 points per game in the first two rounds of the tournament last year before struggling against Iowa State and Kansas in the second weekend, an experience that probably left a sour taste in the mouth of the veteran.
Wong has a backcourt partner in Jordan Miller, who averages just under 15 points per game and stepped up his production once ACC play got underway. Really, this answers the question of if the Canes have strong backcourt play, which it without question does. Its greatest strength is in guard play, but in the frontcourt Norchard Omier averages a double-double, creating a nice contrast. Nijel Pack is a strong supporting cast piece as well.
Its coach, Jim Larranaga, has a reputation of being a tough coach to prepare for. There’s a reason he has over 700 career wins to his name. His guard-heavy scheme is a modern system that some coaches are starting to use, but some others still shy away from it. He led George Mason’s charge in 2006 to the Final Four, so he’s no stranger to getting a deep run out of his teams. With Larranaga in charge, it’s easy to feel comfortable.
Xavier
One of the most quiet, yet impressive, teams in the country right now. The Musketeers are 9-1 in the Big East and 17-4 overall. That already includes a sweep over the flailing UConn, one that was finished off on Wednesday night. Xavier has only lost one game since November 27.
This team has a number of stars it can rely on. Right now, guard Souley Boum is the leading scorer at 16.8 points per game. The Musketeers also boast a couple of stalwarts in the frontcourt, with Zach Freemantle and seven-footer Jack Nunge, making this a very good team on the boards on top of Freemantle’s 15 points per game and Nunge’s 14.3. Another solid guard in Colby Jones is there as well as Adam Kunkel, albeit Kunkel being a bit inconsistent at times. So that being said, it’s not just guard play with Xavier, but it also has two great forwards who can make life difficult for just about any team you could think of.
One thing that goes against the Musketeers is a lack of NCAA tournament experience, the program having not made the Big Dance since 2018. That being said, it might be a run similar to that of Miami’s last season, where, from lack of a better term, where the players don’t know any better and make a run without really thinking too much about it.
The man on the sidelines may end up being a major part of that. Sean Miller, formerly disgraced from Arizona, is back in Cincinnati for the first year of his second stint with the program. He never did get to the Final Four with Arizona, but he got to the Elite Eight three times. He has 19 NCAA tournament wins to his name. Say what you will about him, but there’s no question that Miller can flat-out coach. All of this makes Xavier a prime candidate to make a deep run.
Iowa State
I’m old enough to remember not liking the TJ Otzelberger-to-Ames hire. Did that blow up in my face. The Cyclones are 6-2 in a stacked Big 12 and 15-4 overall this year. Obviously, that record itself is a bit deceiving, since it plays in the Big 12, where it sees a war every night.
It’s not really star that leads this Iowa State team, but it’s more of a collection of good players. A pair of St. Bonaventure transfers are key players on the team in Jaren Holmes, who is the leading scorer, as well as Osun Osunniyi, who used to terrorize Atlantic 10 teams with his size and rebounding ability. His stats have taken a small dip this season, but his minutes have also done that.
However, the two guys to watch out for are both in the backcourt, Gabe Kalscheur and Caleb Grill. Both of them have the ability to have ridiculously good games, especially from Grill, who dropped 31 points on 7-11 from behind the three-point line in November against North Carolina, one of the better college basketball performances on a national stage in recent memory. That being said, it’s not a star that will knock you down, it might be death by a thousand paper cuts with the Cyclones.
Last season, Iowa State reached the Sweet 16 in Otzelberger’s first year at the helm and did it after having a losing record in conference play, earning a No. 11 seed. This is the same guy who went 27-3 in Summit League play in his final two years as head coach at South Dakota State. He is a very good coach who is bringing Iowa State back to the heights it saw during the Fred Hoiberg days. It’s easy to believe in his abilities as a coach. One thing is for sure, this team will have been battle-tested coming into the tournament. Maybe, it will take that next step from last year.
AJ Hoops 