By Aidan Joly
The Big Ten is the best conference in college basketball right now. But just how many teams can it send to the 2021 NCAA Tournament?
Signs point to a lot. The conference is great from top to near-bottom and no game across the league is easy, except for games against Nebraska (sorry, Fred Hoiberg) and maybe Penn State. Other than that, there are no games that any team can pinpoint on their calendar as a win.
As of Monday, the league boasts four teams in the KenPom top 10 and six in the top 20. That’s the most of any league in the country. Add two more in the 21-25 range. For reference, the Big 12 is second with five teams in the top 20.
Michigan is at the top of the league as it stands at 4-0, the only undefeated team in the conference. They also sit at 9-0 and were rewarded this week by cracking the top 10 in the AP Poll. The Wolverines, who have been led by star freshman Hunter Dickinson, are one of three teams currently ranked in just the top 10 and overall have seven ranked teams, six of them in the top 16.
The league topped out at nine ranked teams last week.
Iowa, who ranks fifth in both the AP and KenPom, has who is probably the best player in the country in Luka Garza, a near-30 PPG scorer and have another pair of double-digit scorers in Joe Wieskamp (14.5 PPG) and CJ Fredrick (10.9 PPG). That makes for a big three that rivals any other in the league.
The Hawkeyes are not even the top KenPom team. Wisconsin, a team that doesn’t have a true superstar but has a ton of depth, sits one spot above Iowa. D’Mitrik Trice currently leads the Badgers in scoring at 14.5 points per contest. Both the Hawkeyes and Badgers will be in the conversation for a No. 1 seed come March.
In the second tier of the league, which isn’t even really a second tier by most standards, has Rutgers, Minnesota and Michigan State, all top 15 to 20 teams. Rutgers came out of seemingly nowhere last season to be a great team and have continued that this season. Ron Harper Jr. has become a household name this season with over 22 points per game. Jacob Young has taken a huge step up this year at 15.7 PPG. Montez Mathis and Geo Baker are also double-digit scorers for Steve Pikiell’s squad. Myles Johnson is a double-double threat every night.
Michigan State is not as good as most years and they’ve stumbled out of the gate to a 1-3 start to league play but still has a win against Duke to its name in non-conference play.
Minnesota, along with Northwestern, have been two of the biggest surprises in college basketball this year. The Golden Gophers have flown out to a 10-2 start with three ranked wins against Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. Their two losses, to Illinois and Wisconsin, are forgivable. Arguably, this is Richard Pitino’s best team in his eighth year at the helm, even better than the 2016-17 squad that earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament that was ultimately upset by Middle Tennessee State in the first round.
Northwestern, not a ranked team currently but still good, looks to be in good position so far to make the tournament for just the second time in program history. Outside of two expected losses to Iowa and Michigan, this group’s only stumble was a one-point loss to Pittsburgh on December 9. The foursome of Miller Kopp, Chase Audige, Pete Nance and Boo Buie has been great for the Wildcats.
In a lower tier but teams that still have a very good chance are Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana and to a lesser extent, Maryland. All three of those teams have struggled a bit out of the gate in league play but still have overall records of above .500.
Now, how many teams can they send?
The Big Ten has 14 teams. The record for most sent in one year is 11, from the Big East in 2011 when it was a 16-team league.
My own opinion is that at most they will tie that record. When it comes time for the conference tournament in Chicago, it’s not out of the realm to think that there will be 9-10 teams solidly in and 2-3 more with work to do and not all of them get in. Penn State and Nebraska seem to be out of the conversation already, but it’s probable that one of the teams that I talked about having a chance does not make it.
That could be changed by one extra at-large bid opened up by the Ivy League not having a season, but it seems like the Big Ten tying the record of 11 is in the cards.
AJ Hoops 