By Aidan Joly
The MLB Draft might be one of the biggest crapshoots in all of sports. There’s upwards of 40 rounds, over 1200 players are selected each year and most never sniff the majors. The first overall pick has produced some stars, some decent players, and some busts. Here, I’ll go over each first overall pick from 1997-2016 and make a new selection, or in a couple of cases keep it the same. I only went to 2016 because nearly all of the 2017-2019 selections are still in the minor leagues. So, here we go.
1997: Matt Anderson, Detroit Tigers
New Selection: Lance Berkman
Berkman went 16th overall to the Houston Astros and carved out a 15-year big league career with those Astros as well as brief stints with the Cardinals, Yankees and Rangers towards the end. He was a six-time All-Star with 366 career home runs and over 1900 hits. Meanwhile, Anderson appeared in 257 games as a relief pitcher with the Tigers and Rockies with a 5.19 ERA and was out of the league by 2005 and baseball entirely by 2009.
1998: Pat Burrell, Philadelphia Phillies
New Selection: CC Sabathia
Sabathia was picked by the Indians with the 20th overall pick and made his debut in 2001 with Cleveland before retiring after the 2019 season with the Yankees, where he was a major piece of their World Series-winning team in 2009 and is one of 18 pitchers all time with 3000 strikeouts. No disrespect to Burrell here as he had a decent 12-year career, always very serviceable, and won a pair of World Series’, with the Phillies in 2008 and Giants in 2010.
1999: Josh Hamilton, Tampa Bay Rays
New Selection: Albert Pujols
This is one that could have worked out, but Hamilton had issues with drug addictions and was out of baseball from 2002-2006. He finally made his debut in 2007 with the Reds and was one of the best hitters in baseball in the late 2000s and early 2010s before injuries and another drug relapse ended his career in 2015. Pujols was selected in the 13th round and his resume speaks for itself. 3000 hits, 600 home runs, three MVP’s and two World Series titles. He’s a lock for a first ballot Hall of Famer.
2000: Adrian Gonzalez, Florida Marlins
New Selection: Chase Utley
This was a tough one between keeping Gonzalez, Utley, Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina but I went with Utley. He went 15th overall and was probably the best second baseman in the league for a handful of years before retiring in 2018, a threat on both sides of the ball, a borderline Hall of Famer. Gonzalez had a great peak in the late 2000s with the Padres as one of baseball’s best home run hitters but that peak didn’t last long and wasn’t relevant after his age-34 season.
2001: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
New Selection: Stays the same
First time I’m not making a change. The 2001 class is relatively weak and the only other players I considered were Mark Teixeira and David Wright. Mauer won three batting titles as a catcher, one of two catchers all-time to win multiple and his first, in 2006, was the first by a backstop since the Reds’ Ernie Lombardi in 1942. He also won an MVP in 2009. It’s rare to find a catcher who is a top-10 player in the league, so that’s why he stays as the pick.
2002: Bryan Bullington, Pittsburgh Pirates
New Selection: Joey Votto
Bullington is the first true bust here. He did well in the minors as a starting pitcher and made hit debut with Pittsburgh in 2005 but quickly fanned out. He made 26 career big league appearances, 10 of them starts, with Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toronto and Kansas City, where he made his last big league appearance in 2010 at the age of 29. His career record was 1-9 with a 1.58 WHIP and an ERA of 5.62. Votto, meanwhile, went in the second round to the Reds and has had one of the most consistently great careers of this generation with a career batting average of .307 and is closing in on 300 home runs at the age of 36 and has recently only started to show signs of slowing down. And this stat from 2018 about him is probably the silliest baseball stat you’ll ever see.
2003: Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Rays
New Selection: Adam Jones
Another relatively weak class but decided to go with Jones, who was selected in the supplemental first round by Seattle. Jones made his debut with the Mariners in 2006 at the age of 20 ended up being a stalwart in the Baltimore outfield for a decade, getting five all-star nods and was always consistent. His MLB career is on hiatus as he heads to Japan for the 2020 season at the age of 34. Young had a solid career that lasted from 2006-2015 with the Rays, Twins, Tigers, Phillies and Orioles, but never was a star. Shoutout to Matt Kemp, who went in the sixth round that year.
2004: Matt Bush, San Diego Padres
New Selection: Justin Verlander
You don’t have to go far to find the new selection as Verlander went second overall to the Tigers. He was arguably the best pitcher in baseball for about seven years in the mid and late 2000s. His stats dipped a little bit but has enjoyed a career resurgence the past couple years with Houston and won his second Cy Young in 2019 at the age of 36, his first since 2011. Meanwhile, Bush, who was selected as a shortstop, had many problems with alcohol and had Tommy John surgery after he converted to a pitcher in 2007 that kept him off the field from 2007-2010 and again from 2011-2016, the latter in which he served a 39-month prison sentence after a drunk driving incident. However, it became a feel-good story after he signed with the Rangers upon his prison release in 2016 and made his MLB debut at the age of 30 later that year and has become a key part of the Texas bullpen since then.
2005: Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
New Selection: Ryan Braun
This class had eight future all-stars in the first 12 picks, and 11 if you include all the supplemental picks in the 48-pick first round and that does include Upton. Absolutely loaded. Decided to go with Braun, who has probably had the best overall career out of all of them, but you can make arguments for seven or eight of those 11. Braun has over 300 home runs and a career batting average of nearly .300, a .360 on-base percentage in his big league career, spent entirely with the Brewers after being picked fifth overall. He earned an MVP in 2011, two more finishes in the top three and has six all-star nods to his credit. Upton has had a very solid career as well, with four all-star appearances but short of Braun’s accomplishments. Like I said before, cases can be made for a lot more of those first round guys.
2006: Luke Hochevar, Kansas City Royals
New Selection: Clayton Kershaw
This draft saw Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer all go within the first 11 picks. However, Hochevar went first. He wasn’t a true bust as he spent a couple years with the Royals as a starter, but was never anything special and later came out of the bullpen and eventually retired in 2018 following his final appearance two years prior. He finished his career with a pedestrian 4.98 ERA and a record of 46-65. Kershaw speaks for himself. Consistently a top-three pitcher in baseball since his arrival in 2008, and has an MVP and three Cy Young’s to his credit, and had seven straight top-five finishes in Cy Young voting from 2011-2017. Five-time ERA leader, three-time strikeout champion and Cooperstown will probably be calling eventually.
2007: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
New Selection: Giancarlo Stanton
This is one that can be kept, but decided to change it. Stanton went in the second round to the Marlins and has become one of the most prolific home run hitters of this generation, hitting 300 by age 28. His 2017 season, his final with the Marlins, is the stuff of legends, with 59 home runs and 132 RBI’s. Already four all-star appearances and an MVP and his career is still very much going. Price had a great handful of years and won a Cy Young in 2012 but has fallen off a bit in the past couple years. He’s still only 34 so he still has a couple years left and can still have a career resurgence like Verlander, but he’s still a high-up selection.
2008: Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay Rays
New Selection: Buster Posey
Beckham was a highly-touted prospect and got a signing bonus of over $6 million following his selection. It wasn’t close to working out. He was never anything special in the minors but finally got called-up to Tampa Bay in 2013 but has been pretty average to this point, getting traded to Baltimore in 2017 and is now with the Mariners. He has a career batting average of .249 with 63 home runs in six years. Posey, a catcher, went fifth overall (I’m sensing a pattern with fifth overall here), won Rookie of the Year in 2010, batting title and MVP in 2012 and has become one of the best catchers in the game, which going back to Mauer, is rare to find. He has six all-star appearances and his career maybe have been even better if his freak broken leg injury in 2011 never happened. He’s 33 and starting to show his age but it’s more than worth it.
2009: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
New Selection: Mike Trout
I mean, come on. No disrespect to Strasburg at all as he has developed into a star but you have to take the best player of this generation. This doesn’t require too much explanation. Trout first, Strasburg second. Nolan Arenado, who went in the second round, third. It’s crazy to think that, knowing what we know now, 24 players were selected before Trout.
2010: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
New Selection: Stays the same
This draft saw Harper, Manny Machado and Christian Yelich all go in the first round. Harper was one of the most hyped-up first overall picks maybe ever out of the College of Southern Nevada and he has delivered, one of the biggest superstars in baseball. He won Rookie of the Year in 2012 at age 19 earned an MVP in 2015 at the age of 22 and has six all-star nods while being arguably the most marketable player in the game. It’s crazy to think that he’s still only 27 and his career still has a long way to go.
2011: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
New Selection: Stays the same
Second year in a row the first selection stays the same. This draft had a lot of talent in the first round including Trevor Bauer (third overall), Anthony Rendon (sixth), Francisco Lindor (eighth), Javier Baez (ninth), George Springer (11th), the late Jose Fernandez (14th), Sonny Gray (18th) and Joe Panik (29th), who all made all-star appearances, but Cole, although a bit of a late bloomer, has become one of the best pitchers in the game. He has not won a Cy Young yet, but he has been in the top five in voting three times and had over 300 strikeouts in 2019 before signing his massive deal with the Yankees this past winter. Right now, he’s the best to come out of this draft.
2012: Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
New Selection: Stays the same
Three years in a row that the first overall pick was not a miss. An argument can be made for Corey Seager at 18th overall but Houston got their franchise shortstop in the Puerto Rican for years to come with this pick. He arrived in Houston in 2015 at the age of 20 and won Rookie of the Year. His stats did fly up in 2017 and we all know what happened then so it’ll be interesting to see how his numbers change now that the Astros were caught and punished. This could definitely change at some point, but for now it’s still Correa.
2013: Mark Appel, Houston Astros
New Selection: Aaron Judge
The second year in a row the Astros had the first overall pick, but this one was a big-time miss. Appel struggled out of the gate in the minor leagues. He gave up a triple on the first professional pitch he threw and it never got better, never finding his footing in the Houston system and a trade to Philadelphia in 2015 didn’t help. After his struggles and injuries he “stepped away” from baseball in 2018, one of three first overall picks ever to not reach the MLB. Meanwhile, the 32nd overall pick, Judge, is one of the brightest young stars in baseball today, with 110 home runs in his first three big league seasons, two all-star nods and a second-place MVP finish in his 2017 rookie year. He was recently dubbed as the “next Derek Jeter,” by Jeter himself, high praise to say the least.
2014: Brady Aiken, Houston Astros
New Selection: Aaron Nola
Two years in a row for the Astros taking a star pitcher with the first pick and second year in a row it didn’t work. The Astros took Aiken out of San Diego high school and he did not even sign with the team, opting to go to IMG Academy in Florida as a post-graduate student. He was later selected by the Indians with the 17th overall pick in 2015 and is currently in their minor league system and has made all of two appearances since 2017, both of them disastrous relief outings in Single-A. Nola, who went seventh overall, arrived in the big leagues in 2015 and has formed himself into the ace in Philadelphia, with a 17-win, third place Cy Young season in 2018 and has done very well since then, and at the age of 26 is still getting better.
2015: Dansby Swanson, Arizona Diamondbacks
New Selection: Alex Bregman
Most of the guys from these last two drafts are on the cusp of the big leagues, but a handful are already up. No disrespect to Swanson, who is one of the key pieces to Atlanta’s infield after being traded there in 2016 and has had a couple of good seasons, but is just not that guy. However, you don’t have to look too far for Bregman, who was picked second overall and has become one of the best young players in baseball, with his first 40 home run year in 2019 and finished second in MVP voting. He will probably win an MVP at some point as he becomes an MLB star, even given his negative reputation among fans in the fallout of the cheating scandal.
2016: Mickey Moniak, Philadelphia Phillies
New Selection: Bo Bichette
Moniak was highly touted at the time but has not exactly set the world on fire in the Phillies’ organization, hitting the board at 11th the Phillies’ top 30 prospect rankings last month after hitting .252 with 11 home runs and 13(!) triples in 2019 in Double-A. More still has to be seen out of him at higher levels to get a true idea of who he is, but right now the best player out of that draft is Bo Bichette, who went in the second round to Toronto and hit .311 with 11 home runs in his first 46 career big league games in 2019. The Blue Jays’ offense with him, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Cavan Biggio will be scary for years to come and Bichette is already at the forefront of that. Shoutout to Pete Alonso, who also went in the second round that year.
AJ Hoops 